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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 18)

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    lorelei lor
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    #1204615991

    I will be here. This is the 1st year im here. I was way more on reddit

    Lucky us.

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    Richie Rich
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    #1204616041

    As for the person who made the Empire of the Sun comparison. I stand by what I said, Belfast is nothing like Empire of the Sun because that was an actual war movie. The child was a POW and was not dealing with the circumstances with his family. Empire of the Sun was directed by a movie star director of the time in Steven Spielberg and focused more on the war so of course it made more money at the box office. Belfast, like Hope and Glory, is about a young boy growing up in turbulent times with his family and were both based on their directors’ experiences of growing up. I stand by what I said. Hope and Glory is a good comp. And Belfast is performing similarly to that movie and it hasn’t even opened in the UK and Ireland. I haven’t watched Belfast yet and I honestly don’t want it to win Best Picture. But people are far more interested in that movie than in TPOTD. That movie would be lucky to perform as well as Passing did on Netflix. It’s not like the days of Roma when Netflix barely had new content. TPOTD will be lucky to make the Netflix top 10 in its debut week and it’s not even going to come close to performing as well as The Harder They Fall.

    This is exactly how trying to get someone to watch TPOTD will go after showing them the synopsis or trailer.

    Person: So is it like an action western?

    You: no

    Person: So it is like a gay romance story like Brokeback?

    You: no

    Person: So why should I care?

    You: uh…

    The Power of the Dog is too smart for its own good. It has no surface level plot, all of its story is about figuring out the underlying plot machinations and audiences ain’t got time for that. And it has nothing on the surface level like action or comedy to appease for its lack of a clear plot. Parasite was great because casual audiences can enjoy the basic plot of poor family takes over the lives of rich family and it also has some underlying plot and themes that smart audiences can debate for years to come. But on the surface level TPOTD is boring and that’s why people don’t care. Belfast on the other hand has a clear surface level plot along with heart and humor which casual audiences can enjoy. Even though people aren’t rushing out to see Belfast now. By the oscar Sunday, most people would have.

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    kbc
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    #1204616073

    As for the person who made the Empire of the Sun comparison. I stand by what I said,

    I stand by everything I said as well – Belfast could have done better in US release than it has, much better than H&G and maybe even as well as EOTS – but it hasn’t. It has fallen short of its potential / the comp is EOTS which had the full faith of its studio vs H&G which was dumped by Columbia after a regime change, and its Ampas love was almost in spite of studio indifference to its fate. H&G couldn’t even parlay Oscar attention into significant added revenue.

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    Arman Saxena
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    #1204616106

    BEST PICTURE

    The Power of the Dog (Netflix)

    Belfast (Focus)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    Licorice Pizza (MGM)

    Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)

    Don’t Look Up (Netflix)

    West Side Story (20th Century)

    King Richard (Warner Bros.)

    Being the Ricardos (Amazon)

    The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple+)

    Could Jump In: The Lost Daughter (Netflix), The French Dispatch (Searchlight), Spencer (NEON), House of Gucci (MGM), tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix), C’mon C’mon (A24), Parallel Mothers (Sony Classics), CODA (Apple+), The Last Duel (20th Century), Passing (Netflix), Flee (NEON)

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

    Denis Villenueve – Dune

    Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza

    Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley

    Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

    Could Jump In: Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Kenneth Branagh – Belfast, Pablo Larrain – Spencer, Pedro Almodovar – Parallel Mothers, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Julia Ducournau – Titane, Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Maggie Gylenhaal – The Lost Daughter

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    #1204616146
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    Heptapod
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    #1204616159

    Golden Globes
    Paul Thomas Anderson
    Kenneth Branagh
    Jane Campion
    Steven Spielberg
    Denis Villeneuve

    Critics Choice
    Paul Thomas Anderson
    Kenneth Branagh
    Jane Campion
    Maggie Gyllenhaal
    Guillermo del Toro
    Denis Villeneuve

    DGA
    Paul Thomas Anderson
    Kenneth Branagh
    Jane Campion
    Guillermo del Toro
    Denis Villeneuve

    Academy Awards
    Paul Thomas Anderson
    Jane Campion
    Guillermo del Toro
    Joachim Trier
    Denis Villeneuve

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    kaziz
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    #1204616188

    It’s very bizarre year after year to hear from folx that they think something is “boring” and thus it just won’t happen. Are you unfamiliar with the Oscars lol. That describes the vast majority of Oscar BP winners lol, it’s just not a reason. At least when we thought it was “divisive” there was cause for concern, “boring” was the worst thing about Nomadland and Moonlight and Spotlight and just…most winners in history.

    It’s fairly convenient to use Parasite as an example. Also, a fair number of people actually did find Parasite boring… you know why? Because our memories embellish things. I watched it again yesterday (still brilliant obvs) and was surprised by how slow it was. It speeds up later but it’s a bit weird to pretend that such a layered and deliberate film is some conventional or fast-paced comedy. It’s not, I remember people on here liking 1917 more because it was NOT boring (to them), because it’s basically wall-to-wall action.

    Bottom line: saying something is boring and can’t win because of that is ridiculous. We’re talking about the Oscars here. TPOTD isn’t as slow as most winners imo.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    Stefania
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    #1204616209

    On this thread you seem to forget that this year we’re essentially dealing with one year and a half of movies. Some of them, like “Dune” and “West Side Story”, were finished before the pandemic and then were delayed. If you think about that, it’s normal to have more than 10 movies that could reasonably fit into BP. This year it’s cut-throat. Some movies that in other years would be easy BP nominees will be left out.

    Personally, in the final BP lineup there are always a few movies that I didn’t particularly like or that I find boring. Make peace with that. And boring is subjective in art. For me “1917” or “The Irishman” are boring, and “The Power of the Dog” or “Dune” are not.

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    JV
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    #1204616217

    https://mobile.twitter.com/ScottDMenzel/status/1465738372836589568

    Scott Menzel nailed it.

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    #1204616270
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    Heptapod
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    #1204616293

    By nod, not win:

    1. Belfast
    2. Licorice Pizza
    3. The Power of the Dog
    4. Don’t Look Up
    5. Nightmare Alley
    6. King Richard
    7. Dune
    8. Being the Ricardos
    9. The Worst Person in the World
    10. The Tragedy of Macbeth

    11. The Lost Daughter
    12. C’mon C’mon
    13. West Side Story
    14. CODA
    15. Spencer

    1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
    2. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
    3. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
    4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune
    5. Joachim Trier, The Worst Person in the World

    6. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
    7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
    8. Aaron Sorkin, Being the Ricardos
    9. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
    10. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth

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    abelfenty
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    Jul 14th, 2018
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    #1204616366

    West Side Story is going to be a Top 5 contender. I can see it picking up a few technicals over Dune.

    I don’t want to get too bold prematurely before the official reviews come out but Spielberg is so happening in Director.

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    LLLhawks
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    Dec 28th, 2018
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    #1204616516

    <p style=”text-align: left;”>I’m gonna give it two weeks before I buy into this West Side Story love.</p>
    If it really is a contender, this’ll be the first time a BP winner remake gets nominated for BP yes? Wild.

    I would hate the trend that that achievement would start. Maybe they can remake Green Book by 2026.

    I just love movies. And awards.

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    skyes
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    Jan 24th, 2021
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    #1204616715

    Satellite Award Nominations

    Motion Picture, Drama
    Belfast (Focus Features)
    CODA (Apple Original Films)
    Dune (Warner Bros.)
    East of Mountains (Quiver Distribution)
    King Richard (Warner Bros.)
    Spencer (Neon)
    The Lost Daughter (Netflix)
    The Power of the Dog (Netflix)

    Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical
    Cyrano (United Artists Releasing)
    In The Heights (Warner Bros.)
    Licorice Pizza (MGM)
    Respect (MGM/UA)
    The French Dispatch (Searchlight Pictures)
    tick, tick… Boom! (Netflix)

    Director
    Denis Villeneuve, Dune
    Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
    Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
    Lin-Manuel Miranda, tick, tick… Boom!
    Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
    Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard

    FYC, in all eligible categories:
    The Lost Daughter
    Passing
    The Power of the Dog

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    Hinrich689
    Joined:
    Jan 22nd, 2016
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    #1204616728

    Satellite Award Nominations

    Motion Picture, Drama
    Belfast (Focus Features)
    CODA (Apple Original Films)
    Dune (Warner Bros.)
    East of Mountains (Quiver Distribution)
    King Richard (Warner Bros.)
    Spencer (Neon)
    The Lost Daughter (Netflix)
    The Power of the Dog (Netflix)

    Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical
    Cyrano (United Artists Releasing)
    In The Heights (Warner Bros.)
    Licorice Pizza (MGM)
    Respect (MGM/UA)
    The French Dispatch (Searchlight Pictures)
    tick, tick… Boom! (Netflix)

    Seems like they haven’t seen Don’t Look Up, Nightmare Alley, and West Side Story. Kinda strange to not see Being the Ricardos and The Tragedy of Macbeth here.

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