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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 19)

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    wolfali
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    #1204636447

    Top ten on critics lists on Metacritic https://www.metacritic.com/feature/film-critics-pick-10-best-movies-of-2021?ref=hp

    Not Annette 💀💀💀

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    SaulAtreides
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    Jul 27th, 2021
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    #1204636455

    Not Annette 💀

    Annette is way more acclaimed than I had thought, making the top ten for both Sight & Sound and Cahiers du Cinema (at second!).

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    kbc
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    Sep 16th, 2021
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    #1204636460

    Annette is way more acclaimed than I had thought, making the top ten for both Sight & Sound and Cahiers du Cinema (at second!).

    Indeed. The Carax cabal may rival the PTA army among film enthusiasts.

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    themisnnemesis
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    Apr 30th, 2018
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    #1204636462

    I liked Annette. I like its weirdness. Adam Driver was very good.

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    gorman
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    Dec 24th, 2017
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    #1204636466
    1. Licorice Pizza
    2. Belfast
    3. The Power of the Dog
    4. West Side Story
    5. Dune
    6. King Richard
    7. Nightmare Alley
    8. Don’t Look Up
    9. CODA
    10. The Lost Daughter

    1-3 are ones I envisage as potential winners. 4-6 feel safe for the nomination. 7 and 8 have fallen but still seem relatively secure for now. 9 and 10 are the fun slots – I’m very tempted to put Titane in there, but there’s a dozen or so possibilities. CODA feels like an indie passion-pick mixed with a big crowd-pleaser, The Lost Daughter will have a good push from critics and Netflix and should get into Actress and Adapted, where it’s win-competitive in both to a degree.

    1. Campion
    2. PTA
    3. Spielberg
    4. Villeneuve
    5. Ducournau

    No change in nominees here for me, but I think Campion has a better shot at the win having seen TPOTD. Neck and neck with PTA for now.

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    Rachel615
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    Sep 20th, 2018
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    #1204636476

    I tried to show the evolution of the Netflix/Oscars relationship. They started with a few contenders and then grew from there, and eventually got wins in major categories but they still haven’t won a Screenplay, Lead Acting or Picture Oscar.

    I think it more likely than not that Netflix will win in two out three of these this year- screenplay and picture- as well as Director, and possibly but concededly less likely, in lead acting as well.

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    Babylonian
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    #1204636478

    I think it more likely than not that Netflix will win in two out three of these this year- screenplay and picture- as well as Director, and possibly but concededly less likely, in lead acting as well.

    Eh, I don’t see TPOTD sweeping like that. Even Nomadland only won 3 Academy awards. I think TPOTD will win Adapted Screenplay and maybe a Supporting Acting category, and Cinematography.

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    eclipseart
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    Dec 7th, 2021
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    #1204636482

    It failed on The Irishman even when it’s Scorsese. Let’s see if TPotD will succeed. Also, Spielberg happens to be a Netflix hater in which the old-fashioned theater-favored voters might rally behind.

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    eclipseart
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    #1204636511

    Eh, I don’t see TPOTD sweeping like that. Even Nomadland only won 3 Academy awards. I think TPOTD will win Adapted Screenplay and maybe a Supporting Acting category, and Cinematography.

    That’s what I also thought. However, WSS may have Cinematography in their bag. That shot when men walking towards against their shadow is already Cinematography-worthy.

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    Stank83
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    #1204636563

    Now DLU is getting better with 63 on RT.

    As I said before, this movie will go the Jojo Rabbit route, industry folks and general audiences will be more into it than the bubble of pretentious critics.

    I can see this getting:

    Picture
    Screenplay
    Actor
    Supp. Actress
    Editing
    Original Score
    Original Song
    Visual Effects

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    Rachel615
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    #1204636636

    Eh, I don’t see TPOTD sweeping like that. Even Nomadland only won 3 Academy awards. I think TPOTD will win Adapted Screenplay and maybe a Supporting Acting category, and Cinematography.

    I’m not predicting a TPOTD sweep— I think The Lost Daughter has a very good chance at picking up an Oscar for adapted screenplay, and in my view has a stronger screenplay than TPOTD. And if Smith falters, I also wouldn’t be shocked if Garfield won over Cumberbatch. I do, however, think TPOTD is my pick for Picture, Director and very possibly Cinematography. In any case, my prediction above was for Netflix, not TPOTD, to win two of the three categories you had mentioned.

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    kaziz
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    #1204636640

    Eh, I don’t see TPOTD sweeping like that. Even Nomadland only won 3 Academy awards. I think TPOTD will win Adapted Screenplay and maybe a Supporting Acting category, and Cinematography.

    It failed on The Irishman even when it’s Scorsese. Let’s see if TPotD will succeed. Also, Spielberg happens to be a Netflix hater in which the old-fashioned theater-favored voters might rally behind.

    I’m not predicting a TPOTD sweep— I think The Lost Daughter has a very good chance at picking up an Oscar for adapted screenplay, and in my view has a stronger screenplay than TPOTD. And if Smith falters, I also wouldn’t be shocked if Garfield won over Cumberbatch. I do, however, think TPOTD is my pick for Picture, Director and very possibly Cinematography. In any case, my prediction above was for Netflix, not TPOTD, to win two of the three categories you had mentioned.

    Exactly! I also don’t think TPOTD will win Adapted Screenplay. I think The Lost Daughter will. Or even Passing. This is THE place they reward daring works often by female directors, daring stories about people of color. Not only has The Lost Daughter picked up more Screenplay prizes than every other Adapted contender, I do think it’s the best adapted screenplay. In other words, TPOTD does not have to sweep for Netflix to pick up this one 😉

    It’s just the best screenplay. Passing is probably the best film I’ve seen all year, with the best leading performance I’ve seen all year lol, but even still, The Lost Daughter is far and away the best adapted screenplay. The Tragedy of Macbeth & West Side Story are really not consistent with what’s happened in the writing branch recently (The Father, Jojo Rabbit, Moonlight, Call Me By Your Name, BlacKkKlansman…… these folx like them their indies & daring scripts! And the reverence for a play like The Father or a novel like CMBYN—it feels very similar to an adaptation of an Elena Ferrante novel)

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kaziz
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    #1204636652

    I will say it is slightly nonsensical not to predict Passing in Adapted Screenplay. It’s SO consistent with the writer’s branch that even if this is its only nod (my god, that would be so so sad), I think it’ll get it.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    abelfenty
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    Jul 14th, 2018
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    #1204636654

    1. West Side Story
    2. Licorice Pizza
    3. Belfast
    4. The Power of the Dog
    5. Dune
    6. Don’t Look Up
    7. King Richard
    8. Nightmare Alley
    9. House of Gucci
    10. CODA

    11. C’mon C’mon
    12. The Lost Daughter
    13. tick, tick…BOOM!
    14. Spencer
    15. The Tragedy of Macbeth

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    NevadaR
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    Jan 13th, 2018
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    #1204636658

    I seriously doubt Passing or The Lost Daughter are winning Screenplay. Power seems kind of locked in this category.

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