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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 2)

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    kaziz
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    #1204366474

    The lack of diversity in TPOTD will alone hurt it’s chances in the Oscars. Not a single POC in the cast

    I wonder if you even bothered to look at the cast or the source material.

    There are no POC characters in the 4 principal characters, true. But Native American characters are present throughout the book—it is actually a pretty big theme because it is a crucial difference between Phil (racist) and Rose (much more open-minded) in how they treat Native American characters.

    Adam Beach, an indigenous actor, probably has the most prominent of those roles in Edward Nappo, who is actually more present in the book that McKenzie’s character is! Tatum Warren-Ngata, Piimio Mei, Maeson Stone Skuggedal are Maori (indigenous) actors (since Campion is from New Zealand and this was filmed in NZ) who are playing indigenous Native Americans. Then there’s the cowherds who Phil spends time with, and I don’t remember their names from the book except for Theo, who is played by Ramontay McConnell, a Black actor.

    It’s kinda weird that you didn’t see that theme coming given that Jane Campion has always been pretty interested in exploring how her characters interact with indigenous characters in period settings. The Piano’s setting was very much embedded in colonialism and the oppression of Maori people—film critics mostly praised it, but that depiction has been discussed by film scholars for years (some like it, some don’t). Choosing to adapt The Power of the Dog was an interesting choice for her in that sense because it’s much more explicit than The Piano about Phil’s villainous treatment of Native American characters. Adam Beach is a fairly famous indigenous actor! He could genuinely be submitted in the best supporting category. Edward Nappo is in some of the most disconcerting scenes in the first half of the book

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    fefface
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    #1204366484

    I think one thing we’re all overlooking in all this TPOTD chatter is how hideous Netflix’ track record is in terms of actually winning anything. They can get nominations for days but they’ve only ever won 2 above-the-line Oscars.

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    Tick Tock
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    #1204366490

    This is not what I’ve heard. I’ve been told that they’re planning big things for Power of the Dog and even Tick Tick Boom… but I haven’t heard anything about Don’t Look Up. Nothing that hasn’t been shared on these forums already. I don’t know what they’re doing and they don’t seem to be helping us

    Not sure how what you’ve supposedly heard contradicts anything I suggested. Netflix can plan big things for The Power of the Dog and Tick Tick Boom even with Don’t Look Up being their main push. They’ve shown in the past that they can juggle 3 contenders, at least during the nominations phase.

    Netflix showed its hand in that teaser they released earlier in the year where they highlighted Don’t Look Up as their showcase of the year. And for good reason. Look at the track record of everyone involved in that movie.

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    schmids
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    #1204366497

    I think one thing we’re all overlooking in all this TPOTD chatter is how hideous Netflix’ track record is in terms of actually winning anything. They can get nominations for days but they’ve only ever won 2 above-the-line Oscars.

    Yep, this.

    And I know a few people in this thread are like ‘they won’t necessarily go with the populist pick for ratings’ but there is additional context at play here – studios versus streamers. Cinemas have been closed for a year. The landscape has fundamentally changed. It isn’t strange at all to think that voters would go for a studio film, in solidarity if nothing else, rather than a Netflix film.

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    kaziz
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    #1204366503

    I think one thing we’re all overlooking in all this TPOTD chatter is how hideous Netflix’ track record is in terms of actually winning anything. They can get nominations for days but they’ve only ever won 2 above-the-line Oscars.

    Well I think fortunately or unfortunately, that record has to change sometime just given how much of a stronghold Netflix has over acquiring films, and how much of a force its become. And honestly there’s only not that many losses that were all that surprising. Nomadland was going to win. Roma losing was a big surprise. Parasite winning was also a big surprise, but I’m not sure you can say that it’s because it didn’t deserve to. Even Chadwick Boseman losing—I mean…yes it’s surprising, but I can see why many people preferred Hopkins lol.

    I honestly think the only Netflix film I think deserved to win BP was Roma. There’s no other performances or anything I can think of that I’m like “oh yeah Netflix deserved that.”

    Either way, I personally have not been saying TPOTD is winning BP, just that it’s positioning as an early frontrunner. I’ve been saying that the tide seems to be for a more populist BP winner instead. So…I dunno why we’re arguing, nothing’s a sure thing.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    fannie cannie
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    George Ehret
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    #1204366510

    Not sure how what you’ve heard contradicts anything I suggested. Netflix can plan big things for The Power of the Dog and Tick Tick Boom even with Don’t Look Up being their main push. They’ve shown in the past that they can juggle 3 contenders, at least during the nominations phase. Netflix showed its hand in that teaser they released earlier in the year where they highlighted Don’t Look Up as their showcase of the year. And for good reason. Look at the track record of everyone involved in that movie.

    I never said they couldn’t, I just said they haven’t dropped too many breadcrumbs

    FYC
    Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
    Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
    The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
    Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
    The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

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    George Ehret
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    #1204366514

    https://ew.com/movies/power-of-the-dog-first-look-photo-benedict-cumberbatch/ Thoughts?

    Ladies and gentlemen, your Best Actor winner

    FYC
    Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
    Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
    The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
    Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
    The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

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    kaziz
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    #1204366522

    Yep, this.

    And I know a few people in this thread are like ‘they won’t necessarily go with the populist pick for ratings’ but there is additional context at play here – studios versus streamers. Cinemas have been closed for a year. The landscape has fundamentally changed. It isn’t strange at all to think that voters would go for a studio film, in solidarity if nothing else, rather than a Netflix film.

    Honestly…why? At the end of the day, almost everyone in Hollywood at this point is working with Netflix or has worked with Netflix. Voters are made up of the many branches of the Academy, they’re not thinking like studio heads. This isn’t the Golden Age where everyone had contracts to work exclusively with certain studios alone.

    My rationale for why Netflix keeps losing is because Netflix ITSELF keeps making mistakes. Giving limited runs to films like Roma is REALLY stupid, because Roma plays brilliantly on a big screen and not well on the small screen. Same with The Irishman (it’s SO LONG, I never watch films that long on TV!) Ma Rainey and Mank weren’t…good enough to win imo, but Netflix made mistakes there too. Netflix needs to give its films proper theatrical runs and campaign them strategically. Frankly, the fact that TPOTD seems to be doing 3 festivals is a departure that signals a change in strategy—I’m hoping they keep doing that.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    JV
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    #1204366536

    Garfield is the ceilling for Tick Tick Boom IMO. If Netflix wants it to be their main priority, then they’re going to shoot themselves in the foot like A24 trying to push Uncut Gems instead of the much more accessible The Farewell.

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    Diamond Tier
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    #1204366550

    So, do these people have any prominent roles besides being native people who the white characters are racist towards? Unless we have a fully fleshed native character from who’s POV most of the abuse is observed from, this doesn’t change a thing. You can’t make a 12 years a slave with the slaves as background characters and slave owners the leads.

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    fefface
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    #1204366552

    Well I think fortunately or unfortunately, that record has to change sometime just given how much of a stronghold Netflix has over acquiring films, and how much of a force its become.

    Either way, I personally have not been saying TPOTD is winning BP, just that it’s positioning as an early frontrunner. I’ve been saying that the tide seems to be for a more populist BP winner instead. So…I dunno why we’re arguing, nothing’s a sure thing.

    I never said you were personally predicting it – my comment wasn’t directed at you, I was speaking generally, so we’re not ‘arguing’ either. I get that you’re all in for TPOTD but not every comment about it is directed towards you…

    And I’m also not just talking about BP – I’m talking about all above the line categories.

    And sure, maybe it is inevitable that Netflix will break its bad streak eventually. But that doesn’t change the fact that for now, TPOTD predictions exist in the context of Netflix struggling to get wins. I find it hard to compute that they will go from 2 above-the-line wins in five years to multiple wins for the same film, at least while we haven’t seen anything.

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