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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 2)

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    Coltrane
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    #1204366855

    I’m reading all this wonderful news about The Power of the Dog, and am so very happy and excited for it. Kirsten Dunst is obviously my fave, I’ve always thought she would win on her first nomination. Jesse Plemons is brilliant. I know Benedict Cumberbatch is the lead and people are saying he looks the most likely but in case he doesn’t win, Dunst & Plemons as a married couple playing a married couple will bring some adorableness to the Oscars especially if they win together 😀 I know I’m jumping the gun.

    I don’t see any news of Soggy Bottom. That’s strange. It’s completed, right?

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    Crackleking
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    #1204366878

    I’m reading all this wonderful news about The Power of the Dog, and am so very happy and excited for it. Kirsten Dunst is obviously my fave, I’ve always thought she would win on her first nomination. Jesse Plemons is brilliant. I know Benedict Cumberbatch is the lead and people are saying he looks the most likely but in case he doesn’t win, Dunst & Plemons as a married couple playing a married couple will bring some adorableness to the Oscars especially if they win together 😀 I know I’m jumping the gun. I don’t see any news of Soggy Bottom. That’s strange. It’s completed, right?

    Soggy Bottom is rumoured to be playing at NYFF. When that is officially announced we will probably hear more about the film.

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    Calvin
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    #1204366883

    Call me crazy, but I’m predicting Best Director to be a showdown between Sorrentino and Campion.

    Still celebrating Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

    FYC Emmys: The Underground Railroad

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    JV
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    #1204366888

    I think Soggy Bottom will come out as Inherent Vice 2.0. Even though, I don’t believe it will be MGM’s priority anyway.

    All House of Gucci needs is not to be panned. Even if it gets like 65% on Rotten Tomatoes, it will inevitably be a contender with all the buzz and star power.

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    RIDLEY SCOTT
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    #1204366892

    Oh c’mon. Netflix has Scorsese, Cuaron, Baumbach, Campion, McKay, Fincher, Spike Lee, Sorrentino working with them. Next year, del Toro, Russo brothers, Feig, Baumbach. There’s no reason to think this list won’t just get longer and longer. It’s not as if Netflix is getting canceled or something, it’s only going to consolidate more, and the truth is: they have money to throw at these directors and that’s where the directors go! But I think the fight for Netflix to play its films theatrically first and not just in limited runs is ongoing. They’re gonna have to! And with the big chain theatres in financial peril (and places like DisneyPlus doing the same-day gambit), they’re much more likely to play Netflix films!

    And Scorsese said he prefers movie theaters. Same with Spielberg. The world is way more difficult now and movie theaters are ONLY for huge budget movies(200-500 million USD budgets). These directors(David Fincher, Zack Snyder, etc….) are working with Netflix because it’s their only option.

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    Nectar
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    #1204366900

    I’ll reiterate what I said last season: I think in general, films released on streaming have a problem of being in the conversation for more than, say, two weeks, then moving on to the next hot thing. Awards contenders are not immune from this.

     

    Makes me wonder what films would have had different awards runs had they not gone straight to streaming.

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    kaziz
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    #1204366903

    And Scorsese said he prefers movie theaters. Same with Spielberg. The world is way more difficult now and movie theaters are ONLY for huge budget movies(200-500 million USD budgets). These directors(David Fincher, Zack Snyder, etc….) are working with Netflix because it’s their only option.

    But, we’re in a pandemic. Universal and AMC made a deal last year that allowed for only a 17-day window, which was precisely why Netflix was never able to go beyond a certain number of theaters: pre-pandemic, the big chains refused to play Netflix movies because they felt that Netflix should honor the few-months-or-something window that Netflix was never OK with doing. But Netflix has done more than 17 days before streaming lots of times! The Irishman came out after 4 weeks!

    Plus, AMC, Cinemark, Regal are literally not in a position to ask studios/streamers to bend: they literally just did for Army of the Dead, in fact.

    Basically, more than a few things have changed. Netflix is not alone anymore in wanting to stream ASAP, Universal and HBOMax and DisneyPlus are all doing similar gambits where they can put the film on streaming either at the very same time or very soon after. So it’s no longer just Netflix! Before, Netflix was hamstrung because the three biggest chains refused to show their films. Now, they’re not. People will get to see their films in theaters.

    Literally ALL Netflix needs to do is give the films it wants to get awards good theatrical releases. The rest it may or may not, but I’m beginning to think that with people like the Russo Brothers (who made films that opened it…god, 5000 theaters), Netflix will give them theatrical releases.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kaziz
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    #1204366924

    I’ll reiterate what I said last season: I think in general, films released on streaming have a problem of being in the conversation for more than, say, two weeks, then moving on to the next hot thing. Awards contenders are not immune from this.

    Makes me wonder what films would have had different awards runs had they not gone straight to streaming.

    You’re right. But we also just came off a year where I saw every contender on the small screen, I didn’t see a single movie in the theater (I dunno if that’s true of any of you). Consumer habits have changed. You’re right though that streaming films have more trouble being remembered. I think that’s exactly what hamstrung Roma. It’s a GLORIOUS film in a theater, and to be on Netflix was a death knell for it. Post-pandemic, and as theaters open up, I think Netflix now knows it kinda has to give its films those theatrical releases (besides, they do make money that way too!) It’s just that Netflix and other streamers are in an even more powerful position than they were pre-pandemic, so they’ll do whatever. Probably give most films small or no theatrical releases but for their awards films they’ll at least do what they did for The Irishman (open Nov 1st, streaming Nov 27th). And this time, all the big chains will play them!

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kaziz
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    #1204366929

    Call me crazy, but I’m predicting Best Director to be a showdown between Sorrentino and Campion.

    For Director, yeah. The Hand of God looks to be amazing! The incomparable Toni Servillo, apparently Sorrentino’s most personal film about the death of his parents!? Holy hell!

    For BP, it probably won’t be two Netflix films duking it out.

    Probably.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    Calvin
    Joined:
    Dec 27th, 2017
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    #1204366955

    For Director, yeah. The Hand of God looks to be amazing! The incomparable Toni Servillo, apparently Sorrentino’s most personal film about the death of his parents!? Holy hell! For BP, it probably won’t be two Netflix films duking it out. Probably.

    Yep the personal narrative has me thinking Roma vibes for it.

    And yep, don’t think Picture will be those two duking it out, we’ve seen studios have two films as the frontrunners before (Fox Searchlight for Three Billboards and Shape of Water) but the only way that happens this year is if it’s a very open year.

    Still celebrating Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

    FYC Emmys: The Underground Railroad

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    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204366971

    Netflix has The Power of the Dog, Tick, Tick…Boom, Passing, Don’t Look Up, and The Hand of God as their crop of potential Best Picture winners. How depressing if not one of them come close to Best Picture like in the past 2 years.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    RIDLEY SCOTT
    Joined:
    Dec 12th, 2020
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    #1204366998

    But, we’re in a pandemic. Universal and AMC made a deal last year that allowed for only a 17-day window, which was precisely why Netflix was never able to go beyond a certain number of theaters: pre-pandemic, the big chains refused to play Netflix movies because they felt that Netflix should honor the few-months-or-something window that Netflix was never OK with doing. But Netflix has done more than 17 days before streaming lots of times! The Irishman came out after 4 weeks! Plus, AMC, Cinemark, Regal are literally not in a position to ask studios/streamers to bend: they literally just did for Army of the Dead, in fact. Basically, more than a few things have changed. Netflix is not alone anymore in wanting to stream ASAP, Universal and HBOMax and DisneyPlus are all doing similar gambits where they can put the film on streaming either at the very same time or very soon after. So it’s no longer just Netflix! Before, Netflix was hamstrung because the three biggest chains refused to show their films. Now, they’re not. People will get to see their films in theaters. Literally ALL Netflix needs to do is give the films it wants to get awards good theatrical releases. The rest it may or may not, but I’m beginning to think that with people like the Russo Brothers (who made films that opened it…god, 5000 theaters), Netflix will give them theatrical releases.

    You are right in some points. But HBOMAX got a lot of hate inside Hollywood. You need to remember when Nolan said “HBOMAX is the WORST streamer”. And some huge stars like Denzel and Keanu were against HBOMAX at the beginning

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    kaziz
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    #1204367000

    Netflix has The Power of the Dog, Tick, Tick…Boom, Passing, Don’t Look Up, and The Hand of God as their crop of potential Best Picture winners. How depressing if not one of them come close to Best Picture like in the past 2 years.

    Bruised and Blonde as well. Obviously they seem less likely.

    But I think this is a much better crop than Netflix had last year. If Nomadland wasn’t undeniable, I….guess Mank came the closest? But it’s not a good film. Roma definitely was the closest when Green Book won.

    It does tie into what’s being discussed above: a film like The Power of the Dog has the cinematography and setting to match Nomadland’s (it was filmed in NZ!) and it deserves to be seen on a big screen. I hope Netflix does the sensible thing with all its contenders and gives them a decent theatrical release.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204367024

    I’m sorry if someone has posted this before (if so, lemme know, I’ll delete), but I thought The Tragedy of Macbeth’s synopsis on the NYFF page would be of interest:

    A work of stark chiaroscuro and incantatory rage, Joel Coen’s boldly inventive visualization of The Scottish Play is an anguished film that stares, mouth agape, at a sorrowful world undone by blind greed and thoughtless ambition. In meticulously world-weary performances, a strikingly inward Denzel Washington is the man who would be king, and an effortlessly Machiavellian Frances McDormand is his Lady, a couple driven to political assassination—and deranged by guilt—after the cunning prognostications of a trio of “weird sisters” (a virtuoso physical inhabitation by Kathryn Hunter). Though it echoes the forbidding visual designs—and aspect ratios—of Laurence Olivier’s classic 1940s Shakespeare adaptations, as well as the bloody medieval madness of Kurosawa’s Throne of Blood, Coen’s tale of sound and fury is entirely his own—and undoubtedly one for our moment, a frightening depiction of amoral political power-grabbing that, like its hero, ruthlessly barrels ahead into the inferno. An Apple/A24 release.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204367034

    I think the problem with Netflix is that they have not found a mix of a Best Picture contender that is universally liked and ignites passion within voters.

    Roma was beloved by its biggest fans but the black and white and slow nature of the film did not make it universally liked. The same could be said for Mank although who was even passionate about Mank? The Irishman‘s long runtime also deterred many people off and prevented it from being universally liked although it was universally respected among voters though unable to ignite passion thus went 0/10. Trial of Chicago 7 seemed universally liked it did win SAG ensemble after all but seriously who is passionate about that film? Marriage Story also seems universally liked but it didn’t ignite enough passion among voters to win screenplay or get Baumbach nominated in director possibly because its too much of a middle brow drama. But let’s face it no film was beating Parasite that year.

     

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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