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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 2)

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    Elsa Korr
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    Oct 16th, 2020
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    #1204367056

    The fact that Last Night in Soho is getting in for Venice (Although Out of Competition, oddly) over Macbeth (and Blonde) is beyond me.

    FYC-Nightmare Alley in All Categories (Best Picture, Guillermo Del Toro for Best Director, Bradley Cooper for Best Actor, Cate Blanchett for Best Actress, Rooney Mara for Best Supporting Actress, Richard Jenkins for Best Supporting Actor)

    FYC-Last Night in Soho (Edgar Wright for Best Director, Thomasin McKenzie for Best Actress, Anya Taylor Joy for Best Supporting Actress, Edgar Wright and Krysty Wilson Cairns for Best Original Screenplay)

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    kaziz
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    #1204367058

    Roma was beloved by its biggest fans but the black and white and slow nature of the film did not make it universally liked.

    I’m a big Roma fan so I think I’ll say: if it had been given a much wider theatrical release, it may well have been universally liked because it just plays so so so differently on the big screen.

    But yeah it is slow and it lacks the frenetic energy of Parasite which was arguably able to win because it was a very watchable foreign film

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kaziz
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    #1204367065

    You are right in some points. But HBOMAX got a lot of hate inside Hollywood. You need to remember when Nolan said “HBOMAX is the WORST streamer”. And some huge stars like Denzel and Keanu were against HBOMAX at the beginning

    It did, yeah. But I think it’s because they made a pivot lol. Christopher Nolan probably didn’t expect them to be like Netflix at all (and let’s face it, Tenet was doomed in so many ways, Christopher Nolan was probably apoplectic all year lol). He would never have worked with Netflix for that reason in the first place.

    But I mean you’re right too. All streamers are behaving like Netflix now (because they kinda have to) bc as you said “movie theaters are ONLY for huge budget movies(200-500 million USD budgets).”

    Obviously that’s really sad, but at the same time, it’s not as if theaters cannot ever recover. They can—but that would require streamers to cut off the steady supply of content to their subscribers to get them to go to the theater, which ofc they won’t do. So now streamers have all this power and they’re just making viewer habits worse.

    Even me—I used to go to the theater for every damn thing!—when I know it’ll be on Netflix in a few days I’m like “eh, save yourself the money” even though I know it’s a completely different experience.

    Capitalism is the worst.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    RIDLEY SCOTT
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    Dec 12th, 2020
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    #1204367085

    It did, yeah. But I think it’s because they made a pivot lol. Christopher Nolan probably didn’t expect them to be like Netflix at all (and let’s face it, Tenet was doomed in so many ways, Christopher Nolan was probably apoplectic all year lol). He would never have worked with Netflix for that reason in the first place. But I mean you’re right too. All streamers are behaving like Netflix now (because they kinda have to) bc as you said “movie theaters are ONLY for huge budget movies(200-500 million USD budgets).” Obviously that’s really sad, but at the same time, it’s not as if theaters cannot ever recover. They can—but that would require streamers to cut off the steady supply of content to their subscribers to get them to go to the theater, which ofc they won’t do. So now streamers have all this power and they’re just making viewer habits worse. Even me—I used to go to the theater for every damn thing!—when I know it’ll be on Netflix in a few days I’m like “eh, save yourself the money” even though I know it’s a completely different experience. Capitalism is the worst.

    I’m the same. I have HBOMAX and Netflix in my home(TV, Laptop and Cellphone). Maybe(I don’t know) I will have APPLETV in the future only because KITBAG

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    alittle03
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    #1204367112

    I think this is finally going to be Netflix’s year. They have two top contenders with Don’t Look Up and The Power of the Dog, with the other major contenders being Nightmare Alley and House of Gucci. We can’t rule out Nightmare Alley based on the track record of the three amigos, and House of Gucci has huge crowdpleaser potential (even though it could easily be a turkey). Netflix must be rubbing their hands right about now.

    Also tick, tick…Boom!, which they’re also apparently really confident in, as well! I really think Netflix will end up winning BP with one of these three films.

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    Vin Choi
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    Nov 22nd, 2020
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    #1204367139

    Two days to go for Gucci trailer!

    I believe as soon as trailer drops, whether it’s good or bad, the hype will be crazy. the story itself, visuals, driver&gaga fans, media etc.. everything is just so juicy

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    George Ehret
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    #1204367141

    Two days to go for Gucci trailer! I believe as soon as trailer drops, whether it’s good or bad, the hype will be crazy. the story itself, visuals, driver&gaga fans, media etc.. everything is just so juicy

    Any official word on this?

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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    Kaguya-hime
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    Sep 15th, 2020
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    #1204367158

    You do know that, compared to many, that record is actually above-average right? I agree that The Tragedy of Macbeth is probably not getting in (I think it’ll get in for acting, otherwise I’m very skeptical of the film). In this very thread, one guy (Ridley Scott) has only 2 BP films out of TWENTY-FIVE and 4 nominations for himself. Joel and Ethan Coen have 15 nominations, 4 wins, and out of 18 films, only 7 of them failed to make it to the Oscars completely (it’s only polite to note that 3 of those were before people started actually taking them seriously, and also polite to note that they were screenwriters first). That’s a…good record. One of those 7 also happened to be The Big Lebowski and Burn After Reading, which are obviously cult classics and considered big fuckups on the part of the Academy. Their record is not as good as Stephen Daldry who is 3 for 4 with BP films and 3 noms individually from 4 films. Not as good as Paul Thomas Anderson, who is 3 for 8 with BP films and 8 noms individually from 8 films. It’s obviously not as good as Martin Scorsese who is 9 for 25 with BP films, and 14 noms total. But it’s pretty darn good nonetheless. If I made a % for BP, or individual Directing & Writing nods out of total films it would be: Daldry: 75% (only 4 films) PTA: 62.5% Scorsese: 40% Coen Brothers: 38% Ridley Scott: 16%

    Sure. My overall point is though that “pedigree” is hardly a reason to expect a Coen movie to be a top Best Picture contender when the vast majority of their movies either aren’t Oscar contenders or just get in for screenplay and/or a couple techs.

    Too soon to tell but obviously the statistical likelihood is that it won’t win the Big 5 (same with Killers of the Flower Moon lol). The thing about TPOTD is also that the way it’s being positioned is very reminiscent of early frontrunners like La La Land, Nomadland, Roma, Marriage Story, The Favourite. Obviously only one of those actually won BP, but the rest were huge players with 3 of them going on to win Best Director, 3 going on to win Best Lead Actress, and all of them getting more than one acting nomination. So although it’s way too soon to tell how TPOTD will hit, unless…it’s mother! (highly unlikely given the source material lol)…it gets set up as an early frontrunner. Doesn’t matter if it doesn’t win Golden Lion—if it wins Jury and/or Volpi, it’s good to go (arguably it doesn’t necessarily need to win anything at Venice tbh, just get raves, but I think it will). That sets it up as an acting player in basically all the categories. The big IF is the lead/supporting actress category. If Dunst loses the Volpi it’ll be because of one of two reasons: 1. Penelope Cruz wins, or 2. Cumberbatch seems like the lead to everyone and maybe wins Volpi. That sets her up for supporting actress, in which cases, bye-bye Conroy and McKenzie. Cumeberbatch is set for lead actor either way. It’s only a case of whether Dunst (like Stone/JLaw/Witherspoon) happens to get ahead. And hey, Campion is famous for getting a vehicle where both Holly Hunter and Anna Paquin won, but The Piano lost BP. Right now, TPOTD seems a bit like There Will be Blood + The Piano to me. It may lose BP and become the biggest acting/directing player instead.

    I could see that. I think that it’s another Manchester by the Sea or The Piano that wins acting and screenplay, but loses director and picture.

    I never said DiCaprio has bad taste. And it’s true: most people will kill to have DiCaprio’s career. It’s true too what I wrote: He plays it safe. He NEVER is making a crazy movie like Joaquin Phoenix or even Bale did. Leo plays it safe and works for him

    Yep. People like Pitt, Phoenix, and Gosling work with indie directors all the time. DiCaprio just works with the biggest names out there.

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    kaziz
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    #1204367287

    I could see that. I think that it’s another Manchester by the Sea or The Piano that wins acting and screenplay, but loses director and picture.

    Yep. But it’ll be in the running for BP and Director for sure. I don’t know. This will have to wait till they’re seen lol

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kaziz
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    #1204367289

    The fact that Last Night in Soho is getting in for Venice (Although Out of Competition, oddly) over Macbeth (and Blonde) is beyond me.

    What do you think of the synopsis? Honestly to me it feels a little…overwrought lol. It can’t be ALL those things. Feels overly generous.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    Barbra please
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    Oct 21st, 2018
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    #1204367306

    Can anyone tell me how weird is that Marilyn Monroe’s biopic?

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    fefface
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    Jan 14th, 2020
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    #1204367373

    Any official word on this?

    The source is an Italian (IIRC) film distribution site that said the trailer hadn’t been shown at a specific event because it was being launched on July 29. Industry site so more credible than gossip.

    Also someone on AW who seems to have seen it says this week.

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    mitchellfleming21
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    Jan 23rd, 2017
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    #1204367375

    I think Soggy Bottom will come out as Inherent Vice 2.0. Even though, I don’t believe it will be MGM’s priority anyway.

    All House of Gucci needs is not to be panned. Even if it gets like 65% on Rotten Tomatoes, it will inevitably be a contender with all the buzz and star power.

    I actually have a feeling Soggy Bottom could be more similar to PTA’s more accessible 90s films than his recent output. Gucci is definitely the bigger film but I can see SB getting more nominations, MGM reportedly spent a lot more money than they needed to on the rights to make the film so I think they see a contender on their hands.

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    winslets
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    Jul 8th, 2021
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    #1204367554

    The Humans will debut on TIFF. First image of Steven Yeun and Richard Jenkins in the movie.

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    George Ehret
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    Sep 3rd, 2019
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    #1204367582

    The Humans will debut on TIFF. First image of Steven Yeun and Richard Jenkins in the movie.

    Winner for Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay right here everyone

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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