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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 2)

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    Elsa Korr
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    Oct 16th, 2020
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    #1204367590

    What do you think of the synopsis? Honestly to me it feels a little…overwrought lol. It can’t be ALL those things. Feels overly generous.

    did it gave away too much??

    Anyway, What the hell is Focus up to.

    Honestly, i think Focus awards campaign fot this season are all over the place. as for now, i think:

    LNIS wont go for above the line apart from Screenplay and Director unless its overperformed at TIFF and one of the cast is singled out (and it will depend on how other movies performed)

    Belfast remain as their main push for above the line. Judi Dench and Catriona Balfe are strong possibilities

    If Belfast Flops, Card Counter and that Wolf movie are their main push (im assuming for Actor both Isaac and MacKay)

    The weird thing is that why they would sideline Soho for something that is equally weird.

    FYC-Nightmare Alley in All Categories (Best Picture, Guillermo Del Toro for Best Director, Bradley Cooper for Best Actor, Cate Blanchett for Best Actress, Rooney Mara for Best Supporting Actress, Richard Jenkins for Best Supporting Actor)

    FYC-Last Night in Soho (Edgar Wright for Best Director, Thomasin McKenzie for Best Actress, Anya Taylor Joy for Best Supporting Actress, Edgar Wright and Krysty Wilson Cairns for Best Original Screenplay)

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    Stank83
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    #1204367689

    did it gave away too much?? Anyway, What the hell is Focus up to. Honestly, i think Focus awards campaign fot this season are all over the place. as for now, i think: LNIS wont go for above the line apart from Screenplay and Director unless its overperformed at TIFF and one of the cast is singled out (and it will depend on how other movies performed) Belfast remain as their main push for above the line. Judi Dench and Catriona Balfe are strong possibilities If Belfast Flops, Card Counter and that Wolf movie are their main push (im assuming for Actor both Isaac and MacKay) The weird thing is that why they would sideline Soho for something that is equally weird.

    Honestly I don’t think that Wolf movie will go anywhere.

    It plays at TIFF but it’s like Focus’s fourth priority compared to Belfast and Last Night in Soho (The Card Counter is a Sept release, but still it plays at Venice and Telluride, and it has Oscar Isaac in it), and with that Razzie-worthy premise and the already incredibly packed competition in Actor??? Just a TIFF thing.

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    JV
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    #1204367778

    In the fall, COVID and its variants permitting, Netflix will continue to offer exclusive theatrical releases ranging from one week to just under four weeks for films like “Bruised,” “The Hand of God” and “Don’t Look Up.”

    https://variety.com/2021/film/studio-execs/netflix-scott-stuber-steven-spielberg-1235028464/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

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    gorman
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    #1204367919

    LNIS wont go for above the line apart from Screenplay and Director unless its overperformed at TIFF and one of the cast is singled out 

    If it can get Screenplay and Director it will get Picture too, in fairness. They must have some faith in it and Belfast as they’re taking the two best release slots and being positioned for festivals. Neither seem like sure bets though. Right now I’m holding off on predicting Belfast until we hear word on its quality. I think Soho could benefit from an expanded field as a likely crowd-pleaser, but there’s a totally feasible scenario where it alienates too many voters, especially if it leans hard into the horror elements, so I don’t really know what to do with it either.

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    kaziz
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    #1204367927

    The Humans looks really good. Steven Yeun and Richard Jenkins are both fantastic actors who I honestly wouldn’t count out even in just-OK films, but the film looks good, I’m hoping it becomes a contender!

    As an aside—I know people find it grating when some of us on her give that “insider info” but this is just a fun factoid if you’re a fan of Steven Yeun: I just found out that there’s an adaptation of Kurt Vonnegut’s Cat’s Cradle being made, and they’re in talks with Yeun for the lead. Eeeeeee

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    George Ehret
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    #1204367942

    The Humans looks really good. Steven Yeun and Richard Jenkins are both fantastic actors who I honestly wouldn’t count out even in just-OK films, but the film looks good, I’m hoping it becomes a contender!

    I am telling you, Richard Jenkins is coming

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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    kaziz
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    #1204368015

    In the fall, COVID and its variants permitting, Netflix will continue to offer exclusive theatrical releases ranging from one week to just under four weeks for films like “Bruised,” “The Hand of God” and “Don’t Look Up.”

    This is pretty much what I expected, and what they’ve done in the past with The Irishman (Nov 1st to Nov 27th). The thing that’ll make the difference is that now the big chains (AMC, Cinemark etc) have made 17-day window deals, so however long Netflix plays the film theatrically, it’ll be AT many more theaters than previous films ever were. (Netflix’s Army of the Dead played at the big chains just now for just a week before streaming!).

    Bruised, Passing, The Hand of God may be intimate enough to not need the big screen as much as TPOTD, Don’t Look Up and Tick Tick Boom will.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kaziz
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    #1204368019

    I am telling you, Richard Jenkins is coming

    top of my predix 🙂

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kaziz
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    #1204368029

    What if……..hear me out……The Card Counter is actually really good? The trailer looks bad because it keeps shifting tonally and it’s just bizarre, but First Reformed was also bizarre and A24 just makes better trailers, man, it just does lol.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    crabbie
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    #1204368045

    LNIS needs to be second or first place for TIFF People Choice prize to be nominated for Best Picture. I think it could happen since there is enormous hype for the film that I think audience goers will find it a fan favorite. I don’t think it will finish in first place I mean Parasite couldn’t even. I can see The Humans and The Power of the Dog competing for first place.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    .
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    #1204368108

    I think the subject matter in “The Power of the Dog” will be a little too intense to be anything but a very divisive picture. Kirsten Dunst’s role is very much a supporting character, and the actual plot revolves around internalized homophobia, sexual grooming and implied incest between the brothers, and eventually the step-nephew (who is a minor in the book I think 🤔). It’s dark and the twist ending may not have the wide spread appeal needed for a best picture win. But if the movie is done well it will probably be nominated for some high profile awards (Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay).

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    alittle03
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    #1204368131

    I hope I don’t come off as rude, but can people please stop mentioning or implying important plot details for The Power of the Dog? I really want to wait to see the movie, so I can be surprised and go in with no expectations, but I feel like people keep openly giving away or alluding to the plot (especially the ending) when talking about it’s awards chances. I feel like I’m always one post away from getting spoiled and it makes the forum less enjoyable to read for awards analysis. I get that some of you have read the book, but please just be considerate to those who have not read the book and/or are waiting to see the movie.

    FYC -
    • The Power of the Dog - All categories, especially Picture/Director/Adapted Screenplay (Jane Campion), Best Supporting Actress (Kirsten Dunst), Best Supporting Actor (Kodi Smit-McPhee), and Best Cinematography (Ari Wegner)
    • Passing - Best Actress (Tessa Thompson), Best Supporting Actress (Ruth Negga)
    • The Lost Daughter in all categories, especially Picture/Director/Adapted Screenplay (Maggie Gyllenhaal), Best Actress (Olivia Colman), and Best Supporting Actress (Jessie Buckley)

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    #1204368136
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    kaziz
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    #1204368142

    I think the subject matter in “The Power of the Dog” will be a little too intense to be anything but a very divisive picture. Kirsten Dunst’s role is very much a supporting character, and the actual plot revolves around internalized homophobia, sexual grooming and implied incest between the brothers, and eventually the step-nephew (who is a minor in the book I think 🤔). It’s dark and the twist ending may not have the wide spread appeal needed for a best picture win. But if the movie is done well it will probably be nominated for some high profile awards (Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay).

    Huh? Literally read the book yesterday and…nope, there’s no incest LMFAO. It won’t be divisive, if anything it’s tamer than The Piano.

    I hope I don’t come off as rude, but can people please stop mentioning or implying important plot details for The Power of the Dog? I really want to wait to see the movie, so I can be surprised and go in with no expectations, but I feel like people keep openly giving away or alluding to the plot (especially the ending) when talking about it’s awards chances. I feel like I’m always one post away from getting spoiled and it makes the forum less enjoyable to read for awards analysis. I get that some of you have read the book, but please just be considerate to those who have not read the book and/or are waiting to see the movie.

    I don’t think the major plot points or ending have been given away (the post above just made some up). It is about sexual repression, that’s in the synopsis and it’s there from the beginning in the novel tbh, so I wouldn’t consider it a spoiler. I will keep trying my best not to spoil it because it’s too good to spoil.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kaziz
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    #1204368149

    Can we talk about Passing and The Lost Daughter? Any news there George Ehret? Is The Lost Daughter being acquired?

    Because if it is—the Lead Actress race is over. Olivia Colman is winning her 2nd Oscar.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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