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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 2)

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    Stank83
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    #1204370226

    I’ve been told that Netflix is waiting to see how Don’t Look Up performs before they decide to campaign it for awards. Apparently it’s more like McKay’s comedies than his Oscar films. Take that as you will…

    It doesn’t make any sense to me, I’m not questioning what you heard, but you just don’t wait until December to see if this film is awardsworthy or not, especially with that cast, filmmaker, and subject matter. Have never heard of this strategy before.

    I don’t believe whoever told you.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204370242

    It doesn’t make any sense, I know. Hell, I don’t know how much I believe them myself. I’m just trying to add fuel to the fire

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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    Tick Tock
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    #1204370257

    So Netflix is going to wait and see until late December before they decide if their Adam McKay movie starring Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence, Meryl Streep, Cate Blanchett, Mark Rylance, Jonah Hill, and Timothee Chalamet that received a great response from test screenings should get an awards campaign or not? The same Netflix that campaigns like crazy for no less than 4-5 movies every year even when some of them have no shot at a Best Picture nomination?

    We really need to stop giving credence to every random piece of information people claim to have “heard from sources”.

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    Viridiana
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    #1204370294

    In Variety´s interview with Stuber it was implied that some of  the Netflix movies will even have a 4-weeks theatrical run. Maybe Don´t Look up is one of those and they will use that (and the critical reception before that release) to test the waters.

    With so many options, I really think that Netflix has no problem switching from A to B. At this point, they probably have bought tons of pages for FYC ads without knowing exactly which one they´ll use for each film lol

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    Donnna
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    #1204370296

    I’ve been told that Netflix is waiting to see how Don’t Look Up performs before they decide to campaign it for awards. Apparently it’s more like McKay’s comedies than his Oscar films. Take that as you will…

    Wasn’t it revealed today that Netflix is giving it a theatrical run of 1 month before release?Also they delayed blonde saying don’t look up is one of their major contenders.
    I doubt your source is true this time. McKay has a very good track record of being nominated at Oscars with lukewarm reviews too.

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    kaziz
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    #1204370303

    So MGM is giving its hugest push to HoG, obviously. That’s coming up end-November.

    I can’t help but think about Cyrano (also MGM) though. It’s rarely talked about, MGM has it for December 25th (a Darkest Hour-like gambit). Joe Wright probably wants to redeem himself from The Woman in the Window which was volleying around in nowhere-land for ages until it was dumped on Netflix, and Peter Dinklage, Haley Bennett, Ben Mendelsohn, Kelvin Harrison Jr. are all stars who seem on the brink of Oscar attention (they’re all fab actors). It’s an adaptation of an off-Broadway play, but most people will know more about the real Cyrano de Bergerac.

    Joe Wright is a fascinating case on paper. Either he makes BP films that critics love (3/8) or he makes films that are…critically panned (TWITW, Pan was obviously not made for Oscar but it didn’t need to be that bad).

    Could happen. It’s not an adaptation of a pulpy airport-novel nor is it about a Disney character, so why shouldn’t we feel more confident about it?

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    schmids
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    #1204370311

    It’s not an adaptation of a pulpy airport-novel nor is it about a Disney character, so why shouldn’t we feel more confident about it?

    The musical it’s based on didn’t get very good reviews.

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    kaziz
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    #1204370314

    Wasn’t it revealed today that Netflix is giving it a theatrical run of 1 month before release?Also they delayed blonde saying don’t look up is one of their major contenders.
    I doubt your source is true this time. McKay has a very good track record of being nominated at Oscars with lukewarm reviews too.

    Hot take: Adam McKay’s comedies are awesome, and far better than Vice & The Big Short imo. It’s probably not a slapstick comedy because it’s main actors aren’t slapstick actors (but it makes sense that Tyler Perry, Jonah Hill, Matthew Perry, Melanie Lynskey, Ariana Grande are in it if it is). If it’s not trying too hard to be a SATIRE, and it does get campaigned, I’m ready to get behind it in full-force!

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    JV
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    #1204370319

    So MGM is giving its hugest push to HoG, obviously. That’s coming up end-November.

    I can’t help but think about Cyrano (also MGM) though. It’s rarely talked about, MGM has it for December 25th (a Darkest Hour-like gambit). Joe Wright probably wants to redeem himself from The Woman in the Window which was volleying around in nowhere-land for ages until it was dumped on Netflix, and Peter Dinklage, Haley Bennett, Ben Mendelsohn, Kelvin Harrison Jr. are all stars who seem on the brink of Oscar attention (they’re all fab actors). It’s an adaptation of an off-Broadway play, but most people will know more about the real Cyrano de Bergerac.

    Joe Wright is a fascinating case on paper. Either he makes BP films that critics love (3/8) or he makes films that are…critically panned (TWITW, Pan was obviously not made for Oscar but it didn’t need to be that bad).

    Could happen. It’s not an adaptation of a pulpy airport-novel nor is it about a Disney character, so why shouldn’t we feel more confident about it?

    If House of Gucci flops (I mean it like 20% on Rotten) then MGM will still have Soggy Bottom. I don’t think Cyrano is going anywhere

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    schmids
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    #1204370323

    Hot take: Adam McKay’s comedies are awesome, and far better than Vice & The Big Short imo. It’s probably not a slapstick comedy because it’s main actors aren’t slapstick actors (but it makes sense that Tyler Perry, Jonah Hill, Matthew Perry, Melanie Lynskey, Ariana Grande are in it if it is). If it’s not trying too hard to be a SATIRE, and it does get campaigned, I’m ready to get behind it in full-force!

    The script that was leaked was very much a try-hard satire. Think it was changed some but yeah there was a LOT of chatter about the quality (or not) of the script a while back.

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    kaziz
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    #1204370340

    The musical it’s based on didn’t get very good reviews.

    Not great reviews, but mostly good I’d say. Dinklage was highly praised by everyone. Plus The National is scoring the musical and it’s not a Broadway musical in that everything is sung. It could be very good.

    (I mean HoG the book wasn’t all that well-reviewed either… Not that that matters to most people.)

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kaziz
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    #1204370342

    The script that was leaked was very much a try-hard satire. Think it was changed some but yeah there was a LOT of chatter about the quality (or not) of the script a while back.

    Yeah the original script was terrible, oooooof. I hadn’t actually thought about the possibility of turning it from a satire to a much less satirical comedy, but now that I think about it: that could be really fun!

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    schmids
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    #1204370348

     (I mean HoG the book wasn’t all that well-reviewed either… Not that that matters to most people.)

    This isn’t a great comparison IMO. The Cyrano musical is a straight adaptation of something that’s already been seen, House of Gucci is a yet-to-be-seen dramatised version of a ‘factual’ book that will presumably (it will have to, the book is lengthy) trim the more boring bits.

    Not saying Cyrano can’t be good or won’t get in anywhere, but I’m skeptical. If it goes to some festivals I might be more convinced as it feels like the kind of film that needs that.

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    kaziz
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    #1204370489

    Not saying Cyrano can’t be good or won’t get in anywhere, but I’m skeptical. If it goes to some festivals I might be more convinced as it feels like the kind of film that needs that.

    Fair to be skeptical. I am too, I’m just throwing it out there because Variety, Awards Watch etc. all have it on there lists. Which is surprising because it’s hardly one of the sexier contenders.

    It wasn’t really meant as a comparison lol, it was in parentheses because with HoG the source material basically doesn’t matter & with Cyrano it probably does. If anything, I meant what you just said.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    mf617
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    Oct 17th, 2011
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    #1204370595

    This Indiewire article lists some dates for Netflix movies, not sure how accurate they are and if these are theatrical release dates versus dates the movies land on the platform: https://www.indiewire.com/feature/oscars-2022-best-picture-predictions-1234654168/

    “Passing” – November 10
    “Tick Tick Boom” – November 19
    “The Power of the Dog” – December 24

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