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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 2)

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    Stank83
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    #1204373472

    1. The Power of The Dog
    2. Don’t Look Up
    3. Belfast
    4. The Tragedy of Macbeth
    5. The French Dispatch
    6. Dune
    7. House of Gucci
    8. Last Night in Soho
    9. Nightmare Alley
    10. Annette

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    George Ehret
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    #1204373711

    I have a feeling that Belfast might happen in terms of a winner. I heard that test screening reactions went very well and that it’ll be Focus’ main push. It is Branagh, so that is cause for concern (Atemis Fowl lmao), but if it’s more accessible than something like Roma I think it could pull it off. Tho I feel if it doesn’t place at TIFF it won’t have a chance

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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    schmids
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    #1204373724

    1. The Power of The Dog 2. Don’t Look Up 3. Belfast 4. The Tragedy of Macbeth 5. The French Dispatch 6. Dune 7. House of Gucci 8. Last Night in Soho 9. Nightmare Alley 10. Annette

    Leos Carax in BP? That’s bold.

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    kaziz
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    #1204373801

    Erik Anderson’s new post on BP made a good point: since the preferential ballot, only The Shape of Water has had one tech win or more. Nomadland, Green Book, Moonlight, Spotlight, Parasite all won with zero tech wins/noms. It was Screenplay and above for all of them. The Shape of Water’s tech wins were Score & Production Design, and Score is not necessarily something that goes often to the big tech players (it could go either way). Point being: films like Dune, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story don’t fit that profile.

    But it’s hardly the strongest stat obviously. Just a trend with the preferential ballot.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    crabbie
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    #1204373807

    Belfast winning would be the next Green Book repeat. Sounds so uninspired.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    fefface
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    #1204373811

    Leos Carax in BP? That’s bold.

    Adam Driver this season’s McDormand, imagine.

    (yes this is a joke, Annette is not getting in BP)

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    kaziz
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    #1204373816

    I don’t get why people keep predicting Passing. I don’t sense any passion for it.

    It makes sense for there not to be LOTS of broad passion for Passing tbh. Even as a book, it’s sort of the classic for academics and critics who engage with it more intellectually. My guess is that it’s a bit like The Father. There’s a lot of complexity to it and it can be a bit niche, so you’ll hear lots of “won’t be for Oscars” and some of “it’s fantastic”. People were a bit surprised with The Father’s overperformance.

    Some other good comparisons might actually be Brooklyn, Amour, Winter’s Bone. It’s not a heartwarming story, a story of Black oppression, or a biopic — and frankly the Academy has a tendency to only like movies about Black people which fit the above molds. BUT if films like Minari, Parasite, Fences are any sign, maybe they’re finally ready for more complexity.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    Igor Alves
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    #1204373818

    I have a feeling that Belfast might happen in terms of a winner. I heard that test screening reactions went very well and that it’ll be Focus’ main push. It is Branagh, so that is cause for concern (Atemis Fowl lmao), but if it’s more accessible than something like Roma I think it could pull it off. Tho I feel if it doesn’t place at TIFF it won’t have a chance

    Does Belfast have any acting contender possibilites based on what you heard?

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    kaziz
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    #1204373860

    Adam Driver this season’s McDormand, imagine.

    (yes this is a joke, Annette is not getting in BP)

    Def not, but I’m gonna keep Adam Driver for Annette in my predix. It could happen, like with Banderas & Pain & Glory, or it could not like Hawke and First Reformed but I just have a feeling critics groups will give Driver a big boon for Annette, and that may be enough. I know folx disagree, for right now that’s where I’m at.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    #1204373864
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    fefface
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    #1204373918

    Def not, but I’m gonna keep Adam Driver for Annette in my predix. It could happen, like with Banderas & Pain & Glory, or it could not like Hawke and First Reformed but I just have a feeling critics groups will give Driver a big boon for Annette, and that may be enough. I know folx disagree, for right now that’s where I’m at.

    I’ve said it before, I’d love it if it did happen I really would. It would be well earned.

    Early social media reactions that I’ve seen from US critics have actually been pretty good, those do tend to skew positive generally but I’m interested to see how it goes down when it comes out in the US on Friday.

    Either way (don’t think this counts as a spoiler!?) given the response to that Burberry ad this week I expect a lot of social media chatter about how much skin there is on show in it, lol.

    If it can hold its MC/RT scores and gets a solid audience score (look at something like The Green Knight, rave reviews but a C+ cinemascore) I might start predicting it.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204373944

    Does Belfast have any acting contender possibilites based on what you heard?

    Dench is the most likely, though some seem to have highlighted Ciaran Hinds

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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    Igor Alves
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    #1204373952

    Dench is the most likely, though some seem to have highlighted Ciaran Hinds

    Thanks.

    By the way, do you know if Jamie Dornan and Caitriona Balfe have supp roles or lead ones?

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    George Ehret
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    #1204373961

    My guess is that it’s a bit like The Father. There’s a lot of complexity to it and it can be a bit niche, so you’ll hear lots of “won’t be for Oscars” and some of “it’s fantastic”.

    If there’s any film that’s The Father this year, it’s The Humans. Passing is just too indie and inaccessible. Plus most people who’ve seen it wouldn’t call it one of the best movies of the year in the same way people said that about The Father (I belong to both camps). Though they apparently re-edited it, so I’ll have to watch it again to see what they did that might make it more accessible. But I highly doubt this gets nominations

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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    George Ehret
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    #1204373963

    Thanks. By the way, do you know if Jamie Dornan and Caitriona Balfe have supp roles or lead ones?

    Balfe I have heard is more Supporting than Lead. I don’t know about Dornan

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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