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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 2)

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    Igor Alves
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    May 12th, 2019
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    #1204373974

    Balfe I have heard is more Supporting than Lead. I don’t know about Dornan

    interesting, thanks again.

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    kaziz
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    #1204374001

    The Father is a lot more accessible than Passing lol. I think it can get Two Popes treatment if Netflix campaigns right. Idk, I can see a lot of voters being bored by it.

    Haven’t seen Passing the film yet (have you?) I guess intellectual is the wrong way to put it. I don’t the book or the film should be any less or more accessible than The Father, I actually think it’s as emotionally intelligent. The Father mines so much from Hopkins’ state of mind (and Colman witnessing her father). Passing is like that imo, if anything I think it has more plot changes and surprises than The Father but I guess as a person of color, the whole idea of passing as white and how to come back to your community after years of doing that…it makes me feel a lot, but sure maybe it’ll probably bore a lot of white people. Another good comparison to me is Sound of Metal (though Riz being a POC doesn’t seem to matter in the film). On paper it sounds boring and too internal but the film was awesome and gave me all the feels. I do know people who were bored by it tho.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kaziz
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    #1204374020

    Passing is just too indie and inaccessible.

    Curious bc I know you’ve seen it. What on earth makes it inaccessible? It’s not like it’s Dune, the story is pretty straightforward.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    schmids
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    Oct 10th, 2020
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    #1204374060

    So odd that we’re having a conversation about Kenneth Branagh getting into BP, but it does seem at this stage like Focus are feeling it (festivals, great release date) so who knows? Maybe he’s made a good one.

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    kaziz
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    #1204374087

    Either way (don’t think this counts as a spoiler!?) given the response to that Burberry ad this week I expect a lot of social media chatter about how much skin there is on show in it, lol.

    Lol fefface did you spoil Annette or……the Burberry ad?

    I really don’t get the Driver thirst (he doesn’t like it either, I take it?) But if Annette has a lot of skin I guess there’ll be loads of memes and gifs.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    fefface
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    #1204374106

    Lol fefface did you spoil Annette or……the Burberry ad? I really don’t get the Driver thirst (he doesn’t like it either, I take it?) But if Annette has a lot of skin I guess there’ll be loads of memes and gifs.

    I don’t think it’s really a spoiler?

    And yeah if the intense thirst all over my social media feeds this week is anything to go by the gif storm is coming.

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    George Ehret
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    Sep 3rd, 2019
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    #1204374122

    Curious bc I know you’ve seen it. What on earth makes it inaccessible? It’s not like it’s Dune, the story is pretty straightforward.

    The presentation and pacing are very much like an art house film. And there’s something off with the writing, specifically the way characters are written. I dunno if that’s because I haven’t read the book or if Hall’s writing isn’t up to snuff, but something just doesn’t feel right. It also feels like it didn’t have enough substance.

    I still enjoyed the film overall, and I wrote my positive thoughts on the film on my Letterboxd log for the film

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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    JV
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    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1204374129

    So odd that we’re having a conversation about Kenneth Branagh getting into BP, but it does seem at this stage like Focus are feeling it (festivals, great release date) so who knows? Maybe he’s made a good one.

    If Last Night in Soho is a hit and/or wins People’s Choice Award at TIFF then I think they’re going to change their priorities.

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    schmids
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    #1204374133

    If Last Night in Soho is a hit and/or wins People’s Choice Award at TIFF then I think they’re going to change their priorities.

    Very good point.

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    mateil
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    #1204374143

    Can anyone explain to me why The Worst Person In The World has blown up in the odds?

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    #1204374147
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    George Ehret
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    #1204374161

    If Last Night in Soho is a hit and/or wins People’s Choice Award at TIFF then I think they’re going to change their priorities.

    Apparently that’s their plan as well.

    If Soho does win Audience, it will be my frontrunner for Original Screenplay because it fits with a lot of previous winners (Promising Young Woman, Parasite, Get Out, Her) and I can see it winning WGA + BAFTA like the former two did

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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    JV
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    #1204374220

    We saw Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and One Night in Miami underperforming in nominations and awards wise, although I think part of that underperformance is due to the extended season and the old problem streaming movies have when it comes to stay on the spotlight. Those movies also had the “filmed play” reviews all over it and the passion just wasn’t there.

    The Father is just freaking great. That’s all. And it appealed to the common sensibility during a pandemic. Not that MRBB and ONIM didn’t, but when I started seeing a lot of people praising the movie and then saying “it made me remember of my father/uncle/grandpa” I was sensing an upset coming. I predicted in Adapted Screenplay, but turns out that the passion for the movie also gave it a Lead Actor win and I believe it was the runner up to Picture as well.

    I’m not sure if The Humans will be able to hold up against bigger contenders from bigger names. I guess if it wins TIFF then I think it could make it.
    If the director is able to adapt the play into the cinematographic language, then we’ll see.

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    wolfali
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    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204374288

    If Soho wins the People’s Choice award at TIFF then I think it could have a similar awards performance to Jojo Rabbit (screenplay win, supporting actress nomination for the most famous person in it who seems to have a lot of individual hype at the moment (ScarJo with her two films, ATJ being Hollywood’s buzziest starlet at the moment)). Although unlike Jojo Rabbit I also think Wright can land a director nomination and the film can do very well at BAFTA (it does seem to after all be a very “British” film). I think a problem Waititi faced in the director race was that his work (both on the film and in general) wasn’t being viewed through the directing lens. He was (and arguably still is) Hollywood’s most popular hyphenate working in comedy. Wright on the other hand seems to have amassed a lot of fans of his films over the years (both with the gp and with the industry) and seems to have had a lot of buzz over the past year due to both hype for Soho and some buzz from The Sparks Brothers.

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "FLEE" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design

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    kaziz
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    #1204374292

    I have seen Passing lol. And yeah, what George said above. I think if you’ve read the book, you’ll connect with it a lot more. I could see a lot of people just feeling cold by it. The first act is set up well but the narrative kind of gets lost as it moves forward. I really liked it though for a debut feature and Ruth Negga is a scene-stealer. Alexander Skaarsgaard has never been scarier too.

    Oh I was asking earnestly if you’d seen the movie not sarcastically lol.

    Huh. Obvs I believe you and George, it’s just…so weird. If it were a Toni Morrison book I’d expect the adaptation to be pretty art house (if you’re fans of Morrison, you’ll know what I mean), but I guess I didn’t expect that for Passing.

    God, I really hope it’s being re-edited now.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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