Home Forums Movies Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 2)

Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 2)

CREATE A NEW TOPIC
CREATE A NEW POLL
Viewing 15 posts - 46 through 60 (of 503 total)
Created
3 months ago
Last Reply
3 months ago
502
replies
36284
views
69
users
kaziz
95
George Ehret
40
crabbie
29
  • Profile picture
    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204364996

    Rumors aside on Belfast, I am absolutely refusing to embrace that for the time being. Just nothing I have heard or seen about it says anything other than failed Oscar bait to me regardless of Focus’ confidence. I think they pivot to Soho but am willing to be wrong.

    If Belfast manages to actually be good, that would mean Kenneth Branagh has finally managed to overcome his immense mediocrity (no I don’t like his Shakespeare adaptations either). He’s just not…good.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

    Profile picture
    Kaguya-hime
    Joined:
    Sep 15th, 2020
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204365000

    well GD did something with my acct but dune and the last duel look horrible. they will both flop hard at venice and the box office. anyone predicting dune for acting noms should check themselves into a mental institution

    You do realize that you are very clearly in the minority when it comes to Dune looking terrible, right? And if you’re going to just come on here to insult people, maybe Gold Derby should do something with your account again.

    To be fair, that understandably hasn’t exactly been an unpopular prediction with the pedigree attached.

    Eh, I don’t really get it tbh. I was predicting it for nominations too, but a Macbeth movie was never winning Best Picture, and it’s not like Coen Brother(s) movies are something the Academy always loves anyways. Out of the Coens’ 18 films, only 4 have been nominated for more than 3 Oscars. Only 4 have been nominated for Best Picture. Only 4 have been nominated for acting. Only 3 have been nominated for Best Director. It was reasonable to predict it being nominated, but even a more accessible Coen movie probably wouldn’t win Picture, and Macbeth is not exactly something that could be described as accessible, a crowdpleaser, important, or most of the other descriptors typically used to describe Best Picture winners.

    Profile picture
    Elsa Korr
    Joined:
    Oct 16th, 2020
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204365004

    In regards of Macbeth, there have been conversation about skepticism towards Shakespeare material due to its questionable track records in awards but Joel Coen, Denzel Washington and Frances McDormand apparently debunked that skepticism, at least for a while until this Venice news popped out.

    FYC-Nightmare Alley in All Categories (Best Picture, Guillermo Del Toro for Best Director, Bradley Cooper for Best Actor, Cate Blanchett for Best Actress, Rooney Mara for Best Supporting Actress, Richard Jenkins for Best Supporting Actor)

    FYC-Last Night in Soho (Edgar Wright for Best Director, Thomasin McKenzie for Best Actress, Anya Taylor Joy for Best Supporting Actress, Edgar Wright and Krysty Wilson Cairns for Best Original Screenplay)

    Profile picture
    sarahvsmovies
    Joined:
    Jun 14th, 2021
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204365022

    I’m slotting Dune in for now solely because of what sarahvsmovies has told us about it 🙂 Primarily that it is very different to the trailer. Not for acting—the best bet there is Ferguson, but I doubt anyone else will come close—but as a BP player. It’s going to be a very hard task, and no matter what it ends up being, it will be divisive to some degree. Some superfans of the book will hate it because…that’s what superfans are like. But if Villeneuve can pull it off…

    Oh man, Kaziz I promise I am being so genuine in my reaction to Dune but now I’m feeling the pressure! It really did floor me and I truly think it’s something groundbreaking. Fingers crossed I don’t look a fool in a month or so.

    Profile picture
    sarahvsmovies
    Joined:
    Jun 14th, 2021
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204365039

    If Belfast manages to actually be good, that would mean Kenneth Branagh has finally managed to overcome his immense mediocrity (no I don’t like his Shakespeare adaptations either). He’s just not…good.

    Ex. actly. The whole…”oh! it’s in black and white!! Auteur!” narrative just feels like a superficial awards play. I just see it becoming a “This Had Oscar Buzz” feature. Maybe it will surprise! But I just…can’t…see it.

    Profile picture
    Elsa Korr
    Joined:
    Oct 16th, 2020
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204365065

    Ex. actly. The whole…”oh! it’s in black and white!! Auteur!” narrative just feels like a superficial awards play. I just see it becoming a “This Had Oscar Buzz” feature. Maybe it will surprise! But I just…can’t…see it.

    This… its odd that Focus only submit Belfast for one fall festivals so far whereas they submit Last Night in Soho for Venice and TIFF (Though they only will compete in TIFF but still).

    I think Belfast is pushed more for Above the line categories (especially acting branch since Judi Dench is there) whereas they will push Soho more for Craft categories (Cinematography from Chung Chung Hoon, ugh) and some above the line categories (Wright has a great chance in Director and Screenplay with Krysty Wilson Cairns, maybe Picture if they win People Choice at TIFF).

    Acting category is an entirely different game though. I think whoever the standout is will be submitted in supporting

    FYC-Nightmare Alley in All Categories (Best Picture, Guillermo Del Toro for Best Director, Bradley Cooper for Best Actor, Cate Blanchett for Best Actress, Rooney Mara for Best Supporting Actress, Richard Jenkins for Best Supporting Actor)

    FYC-Last Night in Soho (Edgar Wright for Best Director, Thomasin McKenzie for Best Actress, Anya Taylor Joy for Best Supporting Actress, Edgar Wright and Krysty Wilson Cairns for Best Original Screenplay)

    Profile picture
    sarahvsmovies
    Joined:
    Jun 14th, 2021
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204365077

    Eh, I don’t really get it tbh. I was predicting it for nominations too, but a Macbeth movie was never winning Best Picture, and it’s not like Coen Brother(s) movies are something the Academy always loves anyways. Out of the Coens’ 18 films, only 4 have been nominated for more than 3 Oscars. Only 4 have been nominated for Best Picture. Only 4 have been nominated for acting. Only 3 have been nominated for Best Director.

    This is all true. As much as I want to argue “but there were so many egregious snubs in those!!”, which I do believe, their regard has not consistently tied to awards. And I think there was also always a question of how impactful(?) a single Coen bro could be. Interestingly, I think they made a whole film about that, cognizantly or not. If this rumormongering is not all much ado about nothing. (Shakespeare! See what I did there!?)

    It was reasonable to predict it being nominated, but even a more accessible Coen movie probably wouldn’t win Picture, and Macbeth is not exactly something that could be described as accessible, a crowdpleaser, important, or most of the other descriptors typically used to describe Best Picture winners.

    That’s exactly where my hesitation has been. The “important” factor. I just don’t see even the most artistic, passionate, nuanced re-adaptation of Shakespeare having much room in the current climate. It’s just been done so much. Macbeth is considered the classic “key role” for an actor to move to being a “serious actor,” and has been adapted hundreds of times on stage or otherwise. It’s tired. That said I still think Washington pulls a nom.

    Profile picture
    sarahvsmovies
    Joined:
    Jun 14th, 2021
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204365090

    This… its odd that Focus only submit Belfast for one fall festivals so far whereas they submit Last Night in Soho for Venice and TIFF (Though they only will compete in TIFF but still). 

    According to the gossip (Hollywood Elsewhere), Card Counter even will play two (Venice and Telluride). So Belfast just being a TIFF submission so far but apparently being their main push is weird to me? IDK what Focus is up to.

    Profile picture
    Joined:
    Jan 1st, 1970
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204365092
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
    Profile picture
    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204365097

    Out of the Coens’ 18 films, only 4 have been nominated for more than 3 Oscars. Only 4 have been nominated for Best Picture. Only 4 have been nominated for acting. Only 3 have been nominated for Best Director.

    You do know that, compared to many, that record is actually above-average right? I agree that The Tragedy of Macbeth is probably not getting in (I think it’ll get in for acting, otherwise I’m very skeptical of the film).

    In this very thread, one guy (Ridley Scott) has only 2 BP films out of TWENTY-FIVE and 4 nominations for himself.

    Joel and Ethan Coen have 15 nominations, 4 wins, and out of 18 films, only 7 of them failed to make it to the Oscars completely (it’s only polite to note that 3 of those were before people started actually taking them seriously, and also polite to note that they were screenwriters first). That’s a…good record. One of those 7 also happened to be The Big Lebowski and Burn After Reading, which are obviously cult classics and considered big fuckups on the part of the Academy.

    Their record is not as good as Stephen Daldry who is 3 for 4 with BP films and 3 noms individually from 4 films.

    Not as good as Paul Thomas Anderson, who is 3 for 8 with BP films and 8 noms individually from 8 films.

    It’s obviously not as good as Martin Scorsese who is 9 for 25 with BP films, and 14 noms total. But it’s pretty darn good nonetheless.

    If I made a % for BP, or individual Directing & Writing nods out of total films it would be:
    Daldry: 75% (only 4 films)
    PTA: 62.5%
    Scorsese: 40%
    Coen Brothers: 38%
    Ridley Scott: 16%

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

    Profile picture
    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204365105

    With all the contenders Netflix has, I am thinking Don’t Look Up is the strongest one. We may not know much about it yet, but McKay stated Leo loved the script and took 5 months adding ideas to the script with him. You know Leo doesn’t just do a film to collect a paycheck. Those days are long gone. The script has to be good.

    You joined after this happened but: many of us have read that first script, by the way. You can find it if you Google it. That’s the first draft script DiCaprio signed on with but he & McKay worked on it further to improve. I think most people here will tell you that the first script was godawful. The reason we’re still talking about it is because we know DiCaprio & McKay worked on it & we don’t know where they ended up.

    Love DiCaprio but I think you might be giving his taste a little bit too much credit. The script was certainly not “good” when he signed on lol. It might be now though.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

    Profile picture
    sarahvsmovies
    Joined:
    Jun 14th, 2021
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204365108

     Love DiCaprio but I think you might be giving his taste a little bit too much credit. The script was certainly not “good” when he signed on lol. It might be now though.

    Yeah so obviously DiCaprio is a great performer but has his artistic input ever been proven to be…like…good? Genuine question. Lots of amazing performers have…not great sensibilities for script and story. Apparently screenings are good but I just wonder if his input can be considered a real net positive.

    Profile picture
    Joined:
    Jan 1st, 1970
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204365111
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
    Profile picture
    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204365113

    Yeah so obviously DiCaprio is a great performer but has his artistic input ever been proven to be…like…good? Genuine question. Lots of amazing performers have…not great sensibilities for script and story. Apparently screenings are good but I just wonder if his input can be considered a real net positive.

    My unpopular opinion is that DiCaprio is a great actor who…lacks good taste in the films he chooses. Most of them are not good, and more recently, they’re films that get feted simply because he’s in them (looking at you, Revenant).

    Same with Christian Bale, another truly great actor. Before you pile on me, yes I know it’s an unpopular opinion. Forgive me.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

    Profile picture
    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204365115

    Someone sent me “the script” on AW but it was literally just the first 5 pages or so. I did see people  having mixed reviews about it on Reddit and also Script Shadow but I’m actually glad I didn’t get to read the whole thing. I want to be surprised. Even if it’s not good.

    Yeah I highly recommend you save yourself the time. It’s really bad & (hopefully) not indicative of the final script & film.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

Viewing 15 posts - 46 through 60 (of 503 total)

The topic ‘Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 2)’ is closed to new replies.

Similar Topics
Chris B... - Oct 28, 2021
Movies
LA26 - Oct 28, 2021
Movies
Karen G... - Oct 27, 2021
Movies