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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 2)

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204366008

    I won’t rain on your parade at all because I’m looking forward to Dune (tentatively, because I’m scared it won’t be GREAT, but I’m on your side lol), but one of the dynamics that I think is being set up this year is that people here on Gold Derby really, really, really seem to want that populist winner! One of the known things with places like Gold Derby & Film Twitter is, sure they’re annoying blah blah whatever, but they are also powerful in that they can create a narrative. And as of now, I’m getting a HUGE sense that people want the commercial film to win (thus all the faith in films like Dune, Don’t Look Up, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, House of Gucci, The Last Duel, Tick Tick Boom, In the Heights, Last Night in Soho). All that anticipation creates a narrative. Honestly, in a way I feel like stans are making TLD happen lol.

    Indeed. TLD has an abysmal 3.7M views on YT yet it’s viewed as a populist movie here even though populi aren’t clicking on the trailer. But while I want a populist winner too, AMPAS passed on the opportunity so many times that I really don’t think Oscars 2021 ratings crash will force them to do anything they don’t want.  Also, speaking of Dune, resident populi can’t decide whether Dune’s gonna flop (in which case it wouldn’t be a populist hit) or be the populist winner.

    Plz check your PM cause I have TPOTD question. 🙂

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    crabbie
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    #1204366017

    How do you all feel about Belfast right now? It makes sense to predict since it’s apparently Branagh’s Roma but just something about it rubs me the wrong way.

    Belfast will be a massive flop and its hysterical that the film is in black and white. It will more likely be Ron Howard’s Hillbilly Elegy. Judi Dench is getting in no matter what. The festival push is disturbing though.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    Diamond Tier
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    Aug 14th, 2020
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    #1204366019

    One of the known things with places like Gold Derby & Film Twitter is, sure they’re annoying blah blah whatever, but they are also powerful in that they can create a narrative.

    How are Gold Derby & Film Twitter relevant to Oscar voting? We’ve seen many examples of online narratives failing to persuade or influence votes.

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    methaddiction
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    Aug 1st, 2017
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    #1204366046

    Get Real! Lamb is winning Best Picture

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    The Oscarguy
    Joined:
    Jan 11th, 2021
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    #1204366095

    Belfast will be a massive flop and its hysterical that the film is in black and white. It will more likely be Ron Howard’s Hillbilly Elegy. Judi Dench is getting in no matter what. The festival push is disturbing though.

    I really don’t see it getting THAT bad of a reception. I think something like Harriet is a better comparison: Another Focus Features title, prime awards season release in early November and TIFF premiere. On paper it feels so Oscar-baity that it feels destined to be the This Had Oscar buzz pick which scored like one acting nomination.

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    Elsa Korr
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    #1204366106

    At this poijt, Focus seems to have no real push.

    Despite the insider report that they want Belfast at priority, they only put it on 1 Fall Festival so far whereas Soho is premiering in Two of three Big 3. Thats odd

    IMO, they just throw everything they have in hand to Fall Festivals and see how things played out. Soho and Belfast has different priorities, though.

    FYC:
    Best Director: Edgar Wright, Guillermo Del Toro, Jane Campion
    Best Picture: Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
    Best Actress: Kristen Stewart, Thomasin McKenzie, Rooney Mara, Tessa Thompson
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Bradley Cooper
    Best S. Actress: Cate Blanchett, Diana Rigg, Anya Taylor Joy
    Best S. Actor: Kodi Smit McPhee, Willem Dafoe, Richard Jenkins

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    mateil
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    Aug 23rd, 2017
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    #1204366108

    I won’t rain on your parade at all because I’m looking forward to Dune (tentatively, because I’m scared it won’t be GREAT, but I’m on your side lol), but one of the dynamics that I think is being set up this year is that people here on Gold Derby really, really, really seem to want that populist winner!

    One of the known things with places like Gold Derby & Film Twitter is, sure they’re annoying blah blah whatever, but they are also powerful in that they can create a narrative. And as of now, I’m getting a HUGE sense that people want the commercial film to win (thus all the faith in films like Dune, Don’t Look Up, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, House of Gucci, The Last Duel, Tick Tick Boom, In the Heights, Last Night in Soho). All that anticipation creates a narrative. Honestly, in a way I feel like stans are making TLD happen lol.

    I think it’s fair to point out the last two winners were the films that had the most hype on these forums.

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    #1204366116
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    crabbie
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    #1204366130

    The lack of diversity in TPOTD will alone hurt it’s chances in the Oscars. Not a single POC in the cast

    I’m sure no POC stopped Nomadland, Spotlight, and Birdman winning! And if this factor was so prevalent then Don’t Look UpNightmare Alley, House of Gucci, Soggy Bottom, Belfast, and The Lost Daughter are out of competition then. I suppose Dune would be safe since it has a glorified Zendaya cameo.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    #1204366135
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    Elsa Korr
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    #1204366140

    Why are you so pressed? I stated pretty much what new rules the Academy put out in September 2020. Go read up and do your research. https://twitter.com/THR/status/1304884758393090048?s=19

    It doesnt have to be half of the cast to be POC. It could be crew or anyone else involved in the movie.

    Anyway. The Card Counter trailer is out

    Honestly, I dont know what to think on this one.

    FYC:
    Best Director: Edgar Wright, Guillermo Del Toro, Jane Campion
    Best Picture: Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
    Best Actress: Kristen Stewart, Thomasin McKenzie, Rooney Mara, Tessa Thompson
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Bradley Cooper
    Best S. Actress: Cate Blanchett, Diana Rigg, Anya Taylor Joy
    Best S. Actor: Kodi Smit McPhee, Willem Dafoe, Richard Jenkins

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    George Ehret
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    Sep 3rd, 2019
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    #1204366146

    Why are you so pressed? I stated pretty much what new rules the Academy put out in September 2020. Go read up and do your research. TPOTD has 0 POC in its cast or crew. https://twitter.com/THR/status/1304884758393090048?s=19

    It has to be a diverse cast and crew, so that isn’t exclusive to people of color. That also includes women, LGBTQ, and physically and/or mentally impaired people. It has to tick just one of those boxes. I would guess that most if not all female directed films are safe…

    FYC
    Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
    Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
    The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
    Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
    The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

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    #1204366148
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    crabbie
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    #1204366152

    Why are you so pressed? I stated pretty much what new rules the Academy put out in September 2020. Go read up and do your research. TPOTD has 0 POC in its cast or crew. https://twitter.com/THR/status/1304884758393090048?s=19

    Film Academy Sets Inclusion Requirements for Oscars, Will Take Full Effect in 2024

    Maybe you should read up and do your research, embarrassing.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    crabbie
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    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204366158

    Also embarassing of you to quote all those films when one Google search says all of them have POC in their cast except TPOTD

    POC in the cast in minor/cameo roles yeah I’m sure this will convince Academy members to vote for a film in Best Picture because of a 2 minute scene featuring a POC.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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