Home Forums Movies Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 20)

Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 20)

CREATE A NEW TOPIC
CREATE A NEW POLL
Viewing 15 posts - 166 through 180 (of 509 total)
Created
6 months ago
Last Reply
5 months ago
508
( +2 hidden )
replies
34496
views
96
users
Babylonian
35
kaziz
27
Lil Tony
19
  • Profile picture
    Luca Giliberti
    Joined:
    Jun 23rd, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204639299

    Also re: Villeneuve — I doubt they reward him this year when voters know we’re getting a part 2. “Dune” is only a half of a movie/story.

    Profile picture
    Stefania
    Joined:
    Feb 22nd, 2021
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204639320

    “Spencer” seems to be a movie that critics liked (76 MC and raves for Kristen Stewart) but that industry apparently is feeling cold about. In the same vein, almost every year there is a film that critics didn’t like and that the industry did (“Jojo Rabbit”, “Joker”, “Vice”, you name it) and for me it’s “Don’t Look Up”. “Nightmare Alley”’s reception was underwhelming but not a disaster, “House of Gucci” and “Being the Ricardos” are not appearing on any lists (I haven’t seen them yet), but “Don’t Look Up” with that horrible MC score has made NBR and AFI lists, plus Detroit Film Critics list. And if you think about the kind of movies that make BP with those scores, “Don’t Look Up” fits the bill. I’m keeping it in for now…

    Profile picture
    OscarWatcher1971
    Joined:
    Sep 24th, 2021
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204639335

    Spencer seems to have landed exactly as Jackie (MC 81) did. Will Stewart suffer the same fate as Portman?

    Profile picture
    Marcus.H
    Joined:
    Oct 21st, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204639349

    Fun fact: If TPOTD wins BP, it will be the winner with the lowest IMDb score (7.0) in 60 years since 1963’s “Tom Jones”. Even our last winner, the more subtle “Nomadland” started with a higher score (7.6, now 7.4). Be ready for comments blaming its poor audience score on PETA and claiming IMDb is for trolls lol…

    Current IMDb updates (for films getting 5000+ votes):

    1. DUNE/ 8.1
    2. CODA/ 8.1
    3. Tick Tick Boom/ 7.7
    4. Belfast/ 7.6
    5. King Richard/ 7.6
    6. The French Dispatch/ 7.5
    7. The Last Duel/ 7.5(Not happening)
    8. The Power of The Dog/ 7.0
    9. House of Gucci/ 7.0
    10. Spencer/ 6.9
    11. Passing/ 6.6

    Not enough votes yet: Licorice Pizza, WSS, DLU, BTR, Nightmare Alley, C’mon c’mon, The Lost Daughter, Tragedy of Macbeth.

    Coen-Lynch-Fellini

    Profile picture
    Judestar
    Joined:
    Oct 6th, 2021
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204639354

    If Alejandro G Inarritu could win for that terrible stage play they called Birdman, then why not Denis Villeneuve for Dune? It’s even more painful when you realise Inarritu won a second one the following year for filming in a very cold weather. George Miller is one of the most painful losses in this category. Mad Max: Fury Road should have swept the top categories that year. A good film is not just about having a good story with motivational woke lines, it includes technical achievements. The fact that Spotlight couldn’t win outside Screenplay after the BP win, should tell you how so undeserved it was. Totally forgettable

    It’s not strong enough as a Best Picture contender, it’s like 5th at best. There’s no world where Villeneuve wins over vets like Campion and or Spielberg when their narrative is that they made a true directorial achievement with movies more well liked than Dune

    Profile picture
    Stefania
    Joined:
    Feb 22nd, 2021
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204639380

    Fun fact: If TPOTD wins BP, it will be the winner with the lowest IMDb score (7.0) in 60 years since 1963’s “Tom Jones”. Even our last winner, the more subtle “Nomadland” started with a higher score (7.6, now 7.4). Be ready for comments blaming its poor audience score on PETA and claiming IMDb is for trolls lol… Current IMDb updates (for films getting 5000+ votes): 1. DUNE/ 8.1 2. CODA/ 8.1 3. Tick Tick Boom/ 7.7 4. Belfast/ 7.6 5. King Richard/ 7.6 6. The French Dispatch/ 7.5 7. The Last Duel/ 7.5(Not happening) 8. The Power of The Dog/ 7.0 9. House of Gucci/ 7.0 10. Spencer/ 6.9 11. Passing/ 6.6 Not enough votes yet: Licorice Pizza, WSS, DLU, BTR, Nightmare Alley, C’mon c’mon, The Lost Daughter, Tragedy of Macbeth.

    I think that when a movie is on Netflix a lot of casual movie watchers click on it, whereas when you have to go to a movie theatre the audience is more targeted. If you think that IMDB is a good metrics for predicting the Oscars then predict CODA to win Best Picture. Go for it!

    Profile picture
    Lil Tony
    Joined:
    Sep 17th, 2018
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204639385

    Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), Bong joon-ho (Parasite) and Chloé Zhao (Nomadland) all say hi. Our last three winners for Director and Denis fits none of them. I don’t see where this obsession with the biggest movie always winning directing is coming from. Big doesn’t equal being the best. Joon-ho literally beat Sam Mendes for 1917, a huge war movie filmed in one take. Hell, Kathryn Bigelow for an indie war movie literally beat James Cameron for the biggest movie ever made. Jane Campion also fits the mold of several previous Directing winners. Denis can win but the arguments presented are flawed.

    They were all undeserving. Winning doesn’t equal being the best. James Cameron should have swept the entire season, but they wanted a female winner so badly that the most innovative film of all time lost. Ms Bigelow made a better film three years later for which she got snubbed for having an undeserving win. Zero Dark Thirty was what she deserved to win for. As for the current winner, enough said

    Anticipate "Hold My hand".

    Lady Gaga is a genius

    Profile picture
    Babylonian
    Joined:
    Aug 16th, 2021
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204639391

    It’s not strong enough as a Best Picture contender, it’s like 5th at best. There’s no world where Villeneuve wins over vets like Campion and or Spielberg when their narrative is that they made a true directorial achievement with movies more well liked than Dune

    More well liked by who?

    FYC:

    Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category

    Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga for Best Original Song

    Profile picture
    estrelas
    Joined:
    Jul 25th, 2018
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204639393

    They were all undeserving. Winning doesn’t equal being the best. James Cameron should have swept the entire season, but they wanted a female winner so badly that the most innovative film of all time lost. Ms Bigelow made a better film three years later for which she got snubbed for having an undeserving win. Zero Dark Thirty was what she deserved to win for. As for the current winner, enough said

    Sure, Jan.

    Profile picture
    Babylonian
    Joined:
    Aug 16th, 2021
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204639399

    But if she sweeps both going into the Oscars, why wouldn’t they give her both? Chloé problem last year is that she had The Father, a huge late breaker that was much more of a writers showcase than Nomadland. Campion doesn’t really have a The Father this time. West Side Story is a musical and a remake of a previous BP sweeper, The Lost Daughter doesn’t seem strong enough, Nightmare Alley just flopped, Passing isn’t even guaranteed a nomination, CODA and The Tragedy of Macbeth are not winning, even if they get nominated. Also, Bong Joon-ho won both Director and Original Screenplay. Not saying she’s a lock or anything, but if she goes into the Oscars as the big favourite to win both, they won’t have a problem giving them to her.

    Campion could win every single precursor and it is still possible for the Academy to snub her for Best Picture or Director. At the end of the day AMPAS will vote for what they want, not what other people want or what precursors guide them to. Something tells me the people expecting TPotD to be a sweeper at the Oscars are in for some disappointment though. The last viable Netflix BP candidate lost to Green Book of all things. Clearly there is enough residual Netflix bias among voters to sink a Netflix film in Best Picture no matter the narrative.

    FYC:

    Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category

    Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga for Best Original Song

    Profile picture
    sarahvsmovies
    Joined:
    Jun 14th, 2021
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204639403

    This year is mirroring 2018 in a lot of ways. Gaga and Olivia Colman are both in the Best Actress races, Netflix is seemingly the Best Picture frontrunner with TPOTD/Roma, and Don’t Look Up looks like this year’s Vice. Don’t be surprised if Belfast is this year’s Green Book.

    My thing with the Green Book and Belfast comparisons is that yeah, both are middling films that are superficial wholesome, feel-good movies with a background of some kind of faux social commentary. But Green Book approaches … in a trite, useless, regressive way…an issue at the heart of the historic and contemporary U.S. So older white folks (see: my parents) can feel good about praising and loving it.

    Belfast doesn’t have that same immediate social relevancy because the issue it deals with (but doesn’t) is The Troubles. It’s not something as present in the mind of voters and viewers. So it’s left to the film to be a strong contender for the feel-good, coming-of-age aspect. And there are better films doing that like Licorice Pizza.

    Profile picture
    Babylonian
    Joined:
    Aug 16th, 2021
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204639407

    Fun fact: If TPOTD wins BP, it will be the winner with the lowest IMDb score (7.0) in 60 years since 1963’s “Tom Jones”. Even our last winner, the more subtle “Nomadland” started with a higher score (7.6, now 7.4). Be ready for comments blaming its poor audience score on PETA and claiming IMDb is for trolls lol… Current IMDb updates (for films getting 5000+ votes): 1. DUNE/ 8.1 2. CODA/ 8.1 3. Tick Tick Boom/ 7.7 4. Belfast/ 7.6 5. King Richard/ 7.6 6. The French Dispatch/ 7.5 7. The Last Duel/ 7.5(Not happening) 8. The Power of The Dog/ 7.0 9. House of Gucci/ 7.0 10. Spencer/ 6.9 11. Passing/ 6.6 Not enough votes yet: Licorice Pizza, WSS, DLU, BTR, Nightmare Alley, C’mon c’mon, The Lost Daughter, Tragedy of Macbeth.

    I’m starting to hop aboard the Belfast train. I think it will play well for older AMPAS voters and it has the stats on MC and IMDb that fit in with other films that have won BP.

    FYC:

    Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category

    Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga for Best Original Song

    Profile picture
    Stefania
    Joined:
    Feb 22nd, 2021
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204639415

    TPOTD can totally lose Best Picture to “Belfast”, if you remember that “Brokeback Mountain” lost Best Picture to “Crash”…

    Profile picture
    sarahvsmovies
    Joined:
    Jun 14th, 2021
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204639424

    TPOTD can totally lose Best Picture to “Belfast”, if you remember that “Brokeback Mountain” lost Best Picture to “Crash”…

    I try every day to forget this, thanks.

    Profile picture
    estrelas
    Joined:
    Jul 25th, 2018
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204639429

    Campion could win every single precursor and it is still possible for the Academy to snub her for Best Picture or Director. At the end of the day AMPAS will vote for what they want, not what other people want or what precursors guide them to. Something tells me the people expecting TPotD to be a sweeper at the Oscars are in for some disappointment though. The last viable Netflix BP candidate lost to Green Book of all things. Clearly there is enough residual Netflix bias among voters to sink a Netflix film in Best Picture no matter the narrative.

    I’m not expecting the movie to be a sweeper. I don’t even have it winning BP. But Campion is very well positioned to win both Director and Adapted Screenplay. That CAN very well happen and atm it’s seems like the most likely outcome.

    Why are you reporting this post? (optional):
    Not now
Viewing 15 posts - 166 through 180 (of 509 total)

The topic ‘Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 20)’ is closed to new replies.

Similar Topics
tiermak... - May 21, 2022
Movies
Babylonian - May 20, 2022
Movies
Chris B... - May 19, 2022
Movies