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“Licorice Pizza” is getting stronger by the day. If it can overcome the fact that it has a loose plot with no moral, it could go all the way…
Yeah. I can see it. It’s the only one other than TPOTD I can see a really good argument for, really.
I’m really interested to see if the last few years’ increasing trend of recognizing smaller films at the last moment will continue. Babylonian—this addresses a lot of your questions, not that I expect you to address it, but before you joined GD, we talked a lot about how every year’s new members represents a very large amount of turnover in AMPAS overall, and with the strides they’ve tried to make with inclusion (8% to 18% with people of color, e.g.) in just 1-2 years makes a huge difference to AMPAS overall.
I feel this this new AMPAS has a bit of throwback vibe to films of the 80s, 90s that were mostly not at all films that were box office successes. That was the Oscar stereotype lol. But it’s different: They clearly love acclaimed films, are more open to genre films, and ofc have more diverse picks which is the whole point. Ofc, last year was very indie/critically-acclaimed. You can say much of that was due to the pandemic and lack of theater-going, but the Parasite win was telling even before that. I’m not sure we’ll whip back to “populist” films as much as people expect, though I definitely still think House of Gucci and Tick, Tick, Boom for sure will slip in. Overall, I have a definite cap of 4 late breakers, and yeah I’m fairly certain the current AMPAS is actually becoming more niche (they’ll definitely warmly embrace Dune with nods & wins. I don’t see the argument for BP though).
So yes I’m very much between Licorice Pizza and The Power of the Dog as frontrunners. Go ahead & hate it, I know many of you are here solely to do just that, but it is consistent with short-term trends which are very important to track because the % of AMPAS increase is sufficient in a 2-year span to set new trends in motion.
Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.
The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur
Yeah, clearly the fight for BP is going to be between Dune and House of Gucci.
Sarcasm right?
Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.
The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur
I’m not confident on WSS for some reason…
See??
Critics are not objectively judging Don’t Look Up, they just want to sink McKay and the movie out of pure envy and antipathy just because he got away with Vice’s backlash three years ago.
I, unfortunately, agree. Hey don’t get me wrong I might hate it too, but these reviews are NOT good film criticism. Adam McKay breaks critic-brain.
Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.
The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur
The rollout of WSS has been strange but it’s still a Spielberg film with a massive narrative and rave reviews. It’s not going to miss BP because of this.
If I had to bet today, I’m saying West Side Story wins Best Picture and Campion wins Director.
Ask me two weeks from now or two weeks ago and my answer would be different, but…
I posted this three hours ago. I was innocent back then. Two weeks, lol.
WSS winning best picture/director is out of the question since it’s a remake of a previous winner and a potential box office bomb.
I love how you can make such a bold statement without a film having opened for a full 24 hours yet. I mean, really??
Having watched it last night, West Side Story is an amazing achievement! It’s the only film this Oscar season that “feels” big enough to win Picture. It blows Belfast out of the water. I still love The Power of the Dog and I hope that can score Director, but I feel the Academy might just want to give Steven a 3rd Directing Oscar for going out of his comfort zone and doing a musical (successfully).
With Spielberg and Villeneuve in contention I don’t see Campion winning.
We heard you the first MILLION times, jesus christ!
Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.
The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur
I think West Side Story‘s commercial performance is quite apparent since the start. Spielberg is too big as a name, but what people expect from him is not a musical. The target audience of this film is also younger ones, but we all know they are not moviegoers, and choose streaming over anything. It just has so many disadvantages, even without acknowledging Elgort’s case.
BP win will make people watch it, though, like Nomadland this year.
"The Lost Daughter" in every eligible category - Film
"Succession" Season 3 in every eligible category - TV
"Heaux Tales" by Jasmine Sullivan in every eligible category - MusicCampion is currently way ahead of Spielberg, Villeneuve, and every other director in contention lol.
• FYC: Everything Everywhere All at Once in any and every single category, especially Best Picture, Michelle Yeoh in Actress, Stephanie Hsu in Supporting Actress, The Daniels in Director/Screenplay, Paul Rogers in Editing, and Son Lux in Score.
Also one thing I don’t understand is people celebrating the fact that a movie isn’t doing well at the BO. I’ll never understand film fans that root for movies to not do well.
Sarcasm right?
Yeah, my point is that if only movies that did well in theaters have a shot at the BP, well, pickings are slim.
Who does the BP winner have to be big? If the filmmaking and storytelling is as spectacular as in TPOTD, the scope shouldn’t matter. And tbh, it’s not like TPOTD is a small film. Also, a good point was made in this week’s Oscar Experts Typing column:
“I obviously can’t say for certain if “The Power of the Dog” will be the ultimutt (#sorrynotsorry) winner, but I feel like I’ve heard about why it can’t win more than anything — everything from it being too high-brow to not being a crowd-pleaser (I sound like a broken record, but why does a crowd-pleaser have to win?). As you’ve laid out, there’s a solid case for the “Dog” to have its day. I also doubt anyone foresaw this film of all the films becoming the meme machine that it is (who will you tell your grandkids was Bronco Henry, huh?). And anecdotally, my friend told me the other day that her parents had watched it over the weekend and were gushing about it and how it’s “not what you expect.””
I would be happy if The Power of the Dog were to win, the same with Belfast, but I think the winner is going to be West Side Story and it would be a well-deserved win. I am predicting West Side Story at this point. I get that people are attached to their favorite movie winning but we are speculating on what the academy might do, not what we ourselves would want them to do.
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