Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 23)

[Chris Beachum Joined: May 22nd, 2011 Topics: 655 Posts: 964 View Predictions]

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Continue in Part 23.

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[film123 Joined: Sep 12th, 2021 Topics: 1 Posts: 793 View Predictions]

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Don’t Look Up stans

[Cosmia Joined: Oct 19th, 2021 Topics: 2 Posts: 1341 View Predictions]

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I’m continually mystified by how people insist that TPOTD is some impenetrable avant-garde slog. I mean, sure, it’s not the kind of movie you’d watch if you’re trying to decide between watching a movie and playing paintball, but it’s pretty straightforward. I hope next year the Best Picture frontrunner is two 17th century lesbians sighing at each other in a cornfield for four hours, then we can talk about impenetrable.

[Joined: Jan 1st, 1970 Topics: 0 Posts: 134 View Predictions]

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[Joined: Jan 1st, 1970 Topics: 0 Posts: 134 View Predictions]

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[alittle03 Joined: Sep 16th, 2020 Topics: 5 Posts: 1953 View Predictions]

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wrote:

I also realized that TPotD didn’t make it to NBR Top 10. Do you think it will be a hindrance for that? I hope probably not.

Not at all. The Shape of Water also missed NBR’s Top 10 back when it was in contention and it went on to win Best Picture anyway.

• FYC: Everything Everywhere All at Once in any and every single category, especially Best Picture, Michelle Yeoh in Actress, Stephanie Hsu in Supporting Actress, The Daniels in Director/Screenplay, Paul Rogers in Editing, and Son Lux in Score.

[SN Joined: Dec 7th, 2014 Topics: 4 Posts: 3535 View Predictions]

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I rewatched The Power of the Dog and still can’t love it. It wouldn’t be a bad winner and it’s certainly better than Belfast, but imo it’s not the undeniable masterpiece everyone here says it is.

[FTomoson Joined: Nov 9th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 190 View Predictions]

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wrote:

I also realized that TPotD didn’t make it to NBR Top 10. Do you think it will be a hindrance for that? I hope probably not.

The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King missed NBR and look how that went.

[Shrek Superslam Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 4 Posts: 815 View Predictions]

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SN wrote:

I rewatched The Power of the Dog and still can’t love it. It wouldn’t be a bad winner and it’s certainly better than Belfast, but imo it’s not the masterpiece everyone here says it is.

The conensus outside of critics and GoldDerby users is that it’s good or very good. But not really good.

IMDB rating is 7/10. Letterboxd is 3.77/5.

I think Power Of The Dog could be looser here than originally thought.

Not seen it yet, but I was assuming with the critics rankings it would probably win Best Picture in the same way Parasite and Nomadland kinda steamrolled.

My feeling is that it possibly won’t hit so hard with SAG or Oscars, as we might be predicting. Still defo gets in, though. BAFTA will lap it up though, probably.

 

[FreemanGriffin Joined: Feb 19th, 2012 Topics: 52 Posts: 4360 View Predictions]

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I just don’t get this strange Don’t Look Up has bad editing thing, it’s editing is superb.

I went to see West Side Story for a fifth time today. Regardless of how well it does at the Oscars this is probably my all-time favorite movie musical. There have been 10 BP winners that have been musicals but it has been 19 years since the last one (The Broadway Melody, The Great Ziegfield, Going My Way (a semi-musical), An American in Paris, Gigi, West Side Story (1961 version), My Fair Lady, The Sound of Music, Oliver! (four winners in the 1960’s), and Chicago). I hope this version of West Side Story will be #11.

[Manav Joined: Dec 21st, 2019 Topics: 53 Posts: 5554 View Predictions]

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The Power Of The Dog is getting stronger day by day. It’s definitely a top 3 contender at present.

~Not much active now due to a higher studies course
~still love watching films and television shows
~Everything Everywhere All At Once in all categories.
~Currently watching Abbott Elementary

[Joined: Jan 1st, 1970 Topics: 0 Posts: 134 View Predictions]

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[FreemanGriffin Joined: Feb 19th, 2012 Topics: 52 Posts: 4360 View Predictions]

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Manav wrote:

The Power Of The Dog is getting stronger day by day. It’s definitely a top 3 contender at present.

Most people agree that there are 3 films that could win BP: Belfast, The Power of the Dog, and West Side Story. Of course there are a few that think another film can win but I think most people are in agreement it will be one of those three. We really don’t know how the rest of this awards season will play out so it’s too early to call it. Dog has momentum due to critics prizes but this is going to be a long awards season and there is much more we need to watch for over the next 3 months.

[Shrek Superslam Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 4 Posts: 815 View Predictions]

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So, I’ve been mentioning the Big 8 a lot in the Best Actor category, but I’m thinking of applying it here, so… this is my opinion on how each of the frontrunners could do. (Bear in mind, every single Best Picture winner since my memory can go back has won 2 Oscars from the Big 8, incl. Picture. All of them have won three, in the last ten years, apart from Spotlight Shape Of Water – but both won in Director and Screenplay. The two biggest indicators).

Belfast:

1. Best Original Screenplay (It Could Win Here, Especially As It Seems Like It Might Be Stronger Than Licorice Pizza)
2. Best Picture (It could happen. And it’s probably the runner-up currently.)
3. Best Director (Branagh) (Current Runner-Up In This Category Alongside Villenueve, It Seems. He Could Win. If it wins in Picture, it’s easy to see him winning here.)
4. Best Supporting Actor (Hinds) (The Runner-Up Currently, I Reckon. He could get a surprise win, if the film over-performs.)
5. Best Supporting Actress (Balfe) (I suppose it’s possible, but there are a few others that are much stronger for the win here.)
6. Best Actor (Jude Hill) (I don’t even see a nomination happening)

Dune:

1. Best Director (Villenueve) (Locked For A Nom, Possibly. Could See Him Winning Here, but Campion might already be locked for the win. I reckon he’s runner-up, though – him or Branagh.)
2. Best Picture (Maybe? I guess. A lot of below-the-line support. But it just seems like a very unlikely film to win Best Picture. I reckon it will perform much like Fury Road.)
3. Best Adapted Screenplay (Could Get Nominated, But Won’t Win)
4. Best Supporting Actress (Ferguson) (There’s a v. small chance she gets nominated, but she won’t win.)
5. Best Supporting Actor (Isaac) (Nah)
6. Best Actor (Chalamet) (Nah)
7. Best Actress (Zendaya) (Lol)

King Richard:

1. Best Actor (Smith) (Might not be the frontrunner, if you ask certain people, but he does feel like the de-facto frontrunner for now.)
2. Best Supporting Actress (Ellis) (Possibly the runner-up here? Possibly not. I think she could win, if the film won Picture, but now I’m thinking about it… kinda seems unlikely.)
3. Best Picture (Hm… I don’t think so, but it could happen. And I don’t think it’s lack of a secure lock in any category above-or-below the line helps it, especially as the closest it has is Best Actor. The Lead categories being ones where a film will be considered honored by a win there, like with Joker, Darkest Hour and Bohemian Rhapsody.)
4. Best Original Screenplay (Unlikely. I think both Licorice Pizza and Belfast are much stronger here. If it wins Picture, it could win here.)
5. Best Director (Marcus-Green) (Could even see him missing a nomination, to be honest.)
6. Best Supporting Actor (Bernthal) (A nomination is plausible, but a win is v. unlikely.)

Licorice Pizza:

1. Best Original Screnplay (Almost a lock here.)
2. Best Picture (Could happen, but it’s not terribly likely. And it would 100% be based on goodwill towards PTA and wanting to give one of his films Best Picture. Not that its unreasonable. This will probably end up being the most well-regarded film in this line-up in future years. Literally, every single PTA film other than Inherent Vice and Hard Eight has ended up being regarded as a masterpiece by most critics. Would age well as a win, honestly, even if it only wins Original Screenplay and maybe Supporting Actor.)
3. Best Supporting Actor (Cooper) (Hear Me Out On This. If he gets in, I think he’s winning. If they like Licorice Pizza, this is the part of the film that every critic has raved about that loves it. And Bradley Cooper does have a narrative, in fairness. Anyway, I’d prefer him to Jamie Dornan – lol.)
4. Best Director (PTA) (He could get nominated, but I’m not really sold on a win. I think it’s possible, though.)
5. Best Actress (Haim) (I think she might have the performance, honestly. And might have the film. A lot of the critics circles have given her nominations. And she’s 2nd place in terms of wins. She’s, also, the only one in a 100% locked Picture nominee. However, one gets the impression that the Academy would probably prefer to nominate a bigger name. Not even Lady Gaga – literally everyone knows who she is – won for her debut performance in a film that could have scored an Acting win. And Gaga was probably not even runner-up. Not likely.)
6. Best Actor (Cooper Hoffman) (He could get nominated, but it’s v. unlikely.)
7. Best Supporting Actress (Harriet Sansom Harris) (Hasn’t Even Been Nominated By Any Critics’ Board)

The Power Of The Dog:

1. Best Adapted Screenplay (Kind of a lock here.)
2. Best Director (Kind of a lock again, but there is more compelling competition than Adapted Screenplay. Otherwise, kind of equal.)
3. Best Picture (Has Swept The Critics Awards. And if it wins Director and Adapted Screenplay, there is no way it doesn’t win Best Picture. I think it would be the first time something like that has happened, since Treasure Of The Sierra Madre didn’t win Best Picture. Supporting Actor helps, too.)
4. Best Supporting Actor (Smit-McPhee) (Has swept the critics’ awards. No one has a narrative to beat him and he will probably get nominated at the Oscars. I see no reason to believe he won’t win, unless Belfast wins or Bradley Cooper actually gets nominated (only person in the race who has the slightest hint of a narrative).
5. Best Actor (Cumberbatch) (He could win here. But it’s so unlikely for a film to actually win 5 Oscars in the Big 8. And the other 4 here are like 90% locked. And Smith has a well-regarded performance and a better narrative. And Garfield has been given career-best reviews, if they don’t like King Richard. It’s pretty likely for Cumberbatch to not win here, but he’s the runner-up easily, regardless, which is nothing to be ashamed of.)
6. Best Supporting Actress (Dunst) (Seems like such an easy win to give, but 6 wins is absurd. And she is less likely to win than Cumberbatch, so…)

West Side Story:

1. Best Supporting Actress (DeBose) (Current Frontrunner, In Regards To Wins)
2. Best Picture (Locked For A Nom. Could Win, As I Think It Could Have Some Below-The-Line Support. But It’s Not Enormously Likely.)
3. Best Director (Spielberg) (Likely For The Nom, Not Sure About The Win. But It’s Quite Possible.)
4. Best Actress (Zegler) (Small Chance To Get Nominated, Even Smaller To Win)
5. Best Supporting Actor (Faist) (More Likely To Be Nominated, But Less Likely To Win At This Point)
6. Best Actor (Elgort) (Lol)

Likelihood:

1. The Power Of The Dog (If It Won Prediction: 4 Wins + Flying Colors. It could win 6, but that just seems insanely statistically unlikely.)
2. Belfast (If It Won Prediction: 3 Wins)
3. West Side Story (If It Won Prediction: 3 Wins)
4. Dune (If It Won Prediction: 2 Wins)
5. Licorice Pizza (If It Won Prediction: 2 Wins – 3 If Bradley Cooper Made ‘Em Hard.)
6. King Richard (If It Won Predictions: 3 Wins – Maybe, 4, If It Got Lucky.)

[Shrek Superslam Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 4 Posts: 815 View Predictions]

#1204680695

wrote:

Parasite was loved by audiences though (8.6 IMDb) and Nomadland, despite having a 7.4 score which is not bad, benefitted from wide open season. TPotD will benefit from critics awards but with films such as Licorice Pizza, WSS and Belfast which happened to have better IMDb scores, it will be a lot tougher.

Yeah. I do feel like Power Of The Dog is the frontrunner, but…

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

It would be odd to have such an unpopular film with general audiences as a Best Picture winner. It’s not something which has happened for a while.

Then again, I think West Side Story being a flop is a similar optic, if they give it a win.

Best case scenario would probably either be Dune or Licorice Pizza – easily the two most frontrunner films from this year’s selection.