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Belfast is winning Screenplay and Don’t Look Up is getting the fifth slot in editing.
Right
Locks:
Belfast (Screenplay + S.Actor/S.Actress, likely for Director)
Dune (Director + Screenplay)
Licorice Pizza (Director + Screenplay, could get acting noms)
The Power of the Dog (Director + Screenplay + Actor/S.Actor/S.Actress)
West Side Story (Director + Screenplay + S.Actress)Likely:
Don’t Look Up (Screenplay, could get Actor/Director/Editing noms)
King Richard (Screenplay + Actor/S.Actress)Have a chance:
CODA (Screenplay and S.Actor)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Best Actor)
Tick, Tick… Boom! (Best Actor)Longshot
Drive my Car (International Film frontrunner)
Encanto (Animated Feature contender and likely winner + soundtrack by LMM)
Nightmare Alley (Del Toro and the cast are respected)Paul Thomas Anderson has been nominated twice for Best Director – There Will Be Blood and Phantom Thread. He is hardly a director’s branch favorite. He is in the vulnerable 5th slot in the odds and I honestly believe many people have not gone back on and changed their predictions in many weeks. The Director odds are the most at odds with reality on here imo.
I am waiting until the DGA nominations to decide what changes to make in my predictions. I really need that particular guild’s guidance in this category, the one that is in the most flux and most likely to have huge surprises on February 8th.
Lol this is so funny.
I made an argument that an absence of similar films to TPOTD would likely benefit TPOTD on the preferential ballot.
It makes absolute sense, and yes we do know how the preferential ballot works, thanks though. If I had a ballot with Passing/The Lost Daughter/TPOTD/Drive My Car/Mass/C’mon C’mon ALL on it, TPOTD may well be #4 or #5! But if TPOTD is the only film on the ballot, yes obviously I will rank it highly, because of a paucity of choices I prefer. People have the weirdest counter-arguments to this: “derp derp, people will put it at the bottom because it’s Netflix”. Uh….okay, sure. It won’t be the only Netflix nominee, that’s for sure.
OK fine, Dune is “arthouse” (I mean, not really, it’s just GOOD, but point taken re: similarities-ish). Dune, Nightmare Alley, The Lost Daughter seem the most similar, and the latter 2 are on the brink.
Last year’s lineup was almost the opposite problem, & it makes Nomadland‘s win pretty darn impressive. It was filled with indie/arthouse films (so much so that many of you have made it a BIG THING of hating on last year’s lineup consistently).
Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.
The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur
Paul Thomas Anderson has been nominated twice for Best Director – There Will Be Blood and Phantom Thread. He is hardly a director’s branch favorite. He is in the vulnerable 5th slot in the odds and I honestly believe many people have not gone back on and changed their predictions in many weeks. The Director odds are the most at odds with reality on here imo. I am waiting until the DGA nominations to decide what changes to make in my predictions. I really need that particular guild’s guidance in this category, the one that is in the most flux and most likely to have huge surprises on February 8th.
Both also BP nominees so if you predict LP to be a BP nominee… Most of the support will have to come from people that vote on the first round in the ATL categories – basically actors, directors and/or writers- because Pizza is not really a player in most of the BTL categories.
Also, I didn’t realize that some MC score changes had taken place.
The highest rated BP contenders (counting those with BP wins/nods) are:
90 – Drive My Car
89 – The Power of the Dog
89 – Licorice Pizza88 – The Tragedy of Macbeth
86 – Parallel Mothers
85 – Passing
85 – West Side Story
85 – The Lost Daughter
85 – The Green KnightI cannot believe only……..three of these are actual locks! Just unbelievable how everything else in the presumptive final 10 is under 80 and 3 of the highest rated films of the year are outside the top 10 and mostly dismissed if we’re being honest. It was the literal opposite last year: only three under 80 ended up in the lineup. Ooof. And like…I’m not saying FUN FILMS shouldn’t be in the lineup (Dune & CODA deserve better reviews imo) but the attempt to make AMPAS go in the opposite direction it’s actually been trending in makes my head spin!—I have no idea what to actually predict.
Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.
The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur
Paul Thomas Anderson has been nominated twice for Best Director – There Will Be Blood and Phantom Thread. He is hardly a director’s branch favorite. He is in the vulnerable 5th slot in the odds and I honestly believe many people have not gone back on and changed their predictions in many weeks. The Director odds are the most at odds with reality on here imo. I am waiting until the DGA nominations to decide what changes to make in my predictions. I really need that particular guild’s guidance in this category, the one that is in the most flux and most likely to have huge surprises on February 8th.
He got nominated for Phantom Thread when a lot of people didn’t even have it nominated for Best Picture. He could’ve easily gotten nominated for The Master if it wasn’t screwed by the distributor deciding to push another movie (I forget which.)
Both also BP nominees so if you predict LP to be a BP nominee… Most of the support will have to come from people that vote on the first round in the ATL categories – basically actors, directors and/or writers- because Pizza is not really a player in most of the BTL categories.
Only there are other directors of BP nominees also vying for that fifth slot. And the director’s branch will often throw in a nominee like Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher or Tomas Vintenberg for Another World or the Cold War director into their five nominees. The Director’s branch does the nominating for Best Director, that’s why it’s always the hardest category to predict because they are the most maverick. They are also the most white, male, and older, but that has been changing in recent years.
DLU should win BP. It’s the only likely nominated movie I didn’t fall asleep while watching it.
I made an argument that an absence of similar films to TPOTD would likely benefit TPOTD on the preferential ballot.
It makes absolute sense, and yes we do know how the preferential ballot works, thanks though. If I had a ballot with Passing/The Lost Daughter/TPOTD/Drive My Car/Mass/C’mon C’mon ALL on it, TPOTD may well be #4 or #5! But if TPOTD is the only film on the ballot, yes obviously I will rank it highly, because of a paucity of choices I prefer. People have the weirdest counter-arguments to this: “derp derp, people will put it at the bottom because it’s Netflix”. Uh….okay, sure. It won’t be the only Netflix nominee, that’s for sure.
The preferential ballot benefits the films that support has been splintered, the opposite of what you are saying.
Look at two examples of potential voting:
1. Power of the Dog (40%)
2. Feel Good Film A (25%)
3. Feel Good Film B (20%)
4. Feel Good Film C (10%)
5. Feel Good Film D (5%)Under non-preferential voting PotD wins. Under preferential voting Film D is eliminated and votes transferred (as they like a feel good film in the first round probably to another feel good film) Then Film C is eliminated, then whatever film is in third until it’s Power of the Dog Vs the strongest Feel Good Film in a final round where the strongest candidate has consolidated the ‘Feel Good Vote’.
You’re basically saying the Power of the Dog has an advantage because there’s nothing similar and it’ll gather more Number 1 votes in the first round, but the exact same factor makes it harder for it to gather preferences in the later rounds. So it isn’t an advantage or disadvantage (which is exactly the point of the preferential ballot to stop something winning with a tiny % of the vote in a divided field).
Spiderman does not deserve bp, a film shouldn’t be nominated based on success only. There’s nothing outstanding about it’s screenplay, direction, nor acting or editing.
The Academy nominate NOT outstanding films all the time, but all indies or biopics. Let’s nominate a blockbuster for a change. What was outstanding about Black Panther?
Spider-man had a good tight story, the direction was great in balancing action, humor and drama. And the acting in that film was superb! Holand and Dafoe gave nomination worthy performances for me.
Lol this is so funny. I made an argument that an absence of similar films to TPOTD would likely benefit TPOTD on the preferential ballot. It makes absolute sense, and yes we do know how the preferential ballot works, thanks though. If I had a ballot with Passing/The Lost Daughter/TPOTD/Drive My Car/Mass/C’mon C’mon ALL on it, TPOTD may well be #4 or #5! But if TPOTD is the only film on the ballot, yes obviously I will rank it highly, because of a paucity of choices I prefer. People have the weirdest counter-arguments to this: “derp derp, people will put it at the bottom because it’s Netflix”. Uh….okay, sure. It won’t be the only Netflix nominee, that’s for sure. OK fine, Dune is “arthouse” (I mean, not really, it’s just GOOD, but point taken re: similarities-ish). Dune, Nightmare Alley, The Lost Daughter seem the most similar, and the latter 2 are on the brink. Last year’s lineup was almost the opposite problem, & it makes Nomadland‘s win pretty darn impressive. It was filled with indie/arthouse films (so much so that many of you have made it a BIG THING of hating on last year’s lineup consistently).
You’re assuming AMPAS voters will vote like you would on a preferential ballot, but that’s just not the case. Look at how many above the inline Oscars Netflix has won in the last six years and it should tell you that the bias is real.
FYC:
Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category
Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga for Best Original Song
This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.What was outstanding about Black Panther?
Social relevance and how it portrayed black characters playing warriors, heroes, etc. The film itself was overrated but at least it brought something new about playing poc characters, anything outside of slavery and biopics is an achievement in the industry for poc.
So yeah, it was miles better than whatever fan service No Way Home was.
Dafoe should be in the conversation tho.
You’re basically saying the Power of the Dog has an advantage because there’s nothing similar and it’ll gather more Number 1 votes in the first round, but the exact same factor makes it harder for it to gather preferences in the later rounds. So it isn’t an advantage or disadvantage (which is exactly the point of the preferential ballot to stop something winning with a tiny % of the vote in a divided field).
The main incorrect assumption I’ll get rid off here off that bat is the idea that a “tiny” % of people like indie character dramas. Obviously not. The other incorrect assumption is that for a film to win it must avoid being ranked low entirely (it must avoid being ranked low the least, or amongst the least). I am not arguing that TPOTD will win on the first round: I’m saying even for those who put, say, WSS or tick, tick…BOOM!, at #1 it would be more likely for them to put TPOTD at a higher rank because it stands apart from the others. It explains a lot of wins: The Shape of Water, Moonlight, Parasite…
No I am absolutely not saying it will have enough #1s to win on the first round (I would never claim that). I am literally claiming: it is more likely to put consistently higher by a much larger pool of people (which can ALREADY be presumed to be a large number given the preferential ballot wins of Moonlight, Nomadland, Spotlight etc) because a paucity of films like it means that those films’ target audience have just one or two or three options and will put it higher. People who dislike it will rate it lower obviously, that happens and I’m pretttttty sure it happened to Nomadland PLENTY. But on one hand you have a large segment of people for whom it’s among the top (because of a paucity of other similar choices) and meanwhile, the more similar films will splinter the higher ranks. Honestly this is not that hard, and you actually only have to play one or two rounds to know my point stands……UNLESS:
You argue that the films NOT getting in do not have similar audiences and thus those voters may have no proclivity for TPOTD. You’ll find examples of such people here (Freeman, e.g.) But by and large it seems most of us like The Lost Daughter, Passing, Mass along with TPOTD and similar films.
Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.
The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur
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