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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 24)

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    themisnnemesis
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    #1204700431

    The preferential ballot benefits the films that support has been splintered, the opposite of what you are saying. Look at two examples of potential voting: 1. Power of the Dog (40%) 2. Feel Good Film A (25%) 3. Feel Good Film B (20%) 4. Feel Good Film C (10%) 5. Feel Good Film D (5%) Under non-preferential voting PotD wins. Under preferential voting Film D is eliminated and votes transferred (as they like a feel good film in the first round probably to another feel good film) Then Film C is eliminated, then whatever film is in third until it’s Power of the Dog Vs the strongest Feel Good Film in a final round where the strongest candidate has consolidated the ‘Feel Good Vote’..

    You’re assuming that people who likes one feel good movie necessarily likes another one.

     

     

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    JV
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    #1204700457

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1204700526

    I really don’t know how the preferential ballot will go. Only speculation at this point. More information is needed: GG, CC, SAG, BAFTA winners, and most importantly DGA and PGA, and SAG Ensemble Cast is important too. Everything I postulate are ideas of what might happen – I do however believe it is down to 3 films that can win BP: Belfast, The Power of the Dog, and West Side Story.

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    kamila
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    Dec 6th, 2021
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    #1204700600

    That Variety ad is perfect

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    Sagand
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    #1204700669

    The main incorrect assumption I’ll get rid off here off that bat is the idea that a “tiny” % of people like indie character dramas. Obviously not. The other incorrect assumption is that for a film to win it must avoid being ranked low entirely (it must avoid being ranked low the least, or amongst the least).

    No I am absolutely not saying it will have enough #1s to win on the first round (I would never claim that). I am literally claiming: it is more likely to put consistently higher by a much larger pool of people (which is ALREADY a non-tiny number given the preferential ballot wins of Moonlight, Nomadland, Spotlight etc) because a paucity of films like it means that those films’ target audience have just one or two or three options and will put it higher. People who dislike it will rate it low, that happens and I’m pretttttty sure it happened to Nomadland PLENTY. But on one hand you have a large segment of people for whom it’s among the top (because of a paucity of other similar choices) and meanwhile, the more similar films will splinter higher ranks. Honestly this is not that hard, and you actually only have to play one or two rounds to know my point stands……UNLESS:

    You argue that the films NOT getting in do not have similar audiences and thus those voters may have no proclivity for TPOTD. You’ll find examples of such people here (Freeman, e.g.) But by and large it seems most of us like The Lost Daughter, Passing, Mass along with TPOTD and similar films.

    I never said any particular film or type of film would get a tiny percent of the vote, simply that the point of the preferential ballot is that it stops this being a possibility at all.

    I really do think you have a misunderstanding on how the preferential ballot works. ‘Average placement’ or ‘points per place’ irrelevant. The only thing that matters on each ballot is what is the highest ranked film on the ballot that is still in contention (hasn’t been eliminated). So there is no danger of ‘splitting the higher ranks’ if the films above if are getting going to get eliminated (which all except one will be).

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    TrumpBiden
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    #1204700874

    It’s hilarious that the film that has the best social media reactions is also going to be the lowest rated BP nominee – Don’t Look Up. It goes to show how snobby film viewers that love sitting with their Macbook Air in Starbucks are so out of touch. The Power of the Bore is almost universally disliked by general audiences, yet it will probably win BP. The Academy has to be in panic mode as to what to do.

    Let’s not even mention box office flops like King Floptard, Belbore and Westside Rehash.

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    pedrohf2001
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    #1204700892

    Fuck I can’t stop listening to Encanto songs.

    The ones I listen the most are:

    – We Don’t Talk About Bruno

    – Colombia, Mi Encanto

    – Surface Pressure

    – The Family Madrigal

    – What Else Can I Do

    Yeah irrelevant. But I’m in fucking love with Encanto.

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    brenolimsta
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    Nov 14th, 2020
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    #1204700909

    This year the critical response is not being in line with the audience response. Someone posted here that only three of the movies with the highest scores in MC are locks in BP…that’s weird at least…

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    Babylonian
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    Aug 16th, 2021
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    #1204700911

    This would also have been a better movie poster than Benedict’s back.

    FYC:

    Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category

    Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga for Best Original Song

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    Scotty Ack
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    Dec 26th, 2021
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    #1204700934

    Okay. Here goes nothing.
    I know it’s got a Rotten rating, and I know a fair amount of people would be upset.
    With that said, I can genuinely see a narrative for Don’t Look Up to win Best Picture.

    Not only is it one of the only contenders to drum up genuine interest and conversation with the general public, but it also has a ton of proven industry support. Adam McKay’s brand is practically bulletproof at this point with these bodies. I know it won’t be easy in any way, but if more and more reasons for frontrunners like TPOTD or WSS or LP keep piling up, I could see DLU racking up enough #1 votes to take it all the way.
    I absolutely cannot wait to feel like a giant dumbass in the next month.

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    SaulAtreides
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    #1204700950

    Okay. Here goes nothing. I know it’s got a Rotten rating, and I know a fair amount of people would be upset. With that said, I can genuinely see a narrative for Don’t Look Up to win Best Picture. Not only is it one of the only contenders to drum up genuine interest and conversation with the general public, but it also has a ton of proven industry support. Adam McKay’s brand is practically bulletproof at this point with these bodies. I know it won’t be easy in any way, but if more and more reasons for frontrunners like TPOTD or WSS or LP keep piling up, I could see DLU racking up enough #1 votes to take it all the way. I absolutely cannot wait to feel like a giant dumbass in the next month.

    I think it’s WAY too divisive for that, plus it has no critical support, and is a Netflix movie.

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204700973

    I never said any particular film or type of film would get a tiny percent of the vote, simply that the point of the preferential ballot is that it stops this being a possibility at all.

    I really do think you have a misunderstanding on how the preferential ballot works. ‘Average placement’ or ‘points per place’ irrelevant. The only thing that matters on each ballot is what is the highest ranked film on the ballot that is still in contention (hasn’t been eliminated). So there is no danger of ‘splitting the higher ranks’ if the films above if are getting going to get eliminated (which all except one will be).

    I really don’t. I’ve played the preferential ballot scenario on GD out ever since it started lol. We do it literally every year amongst the users here. The simplistic way to put it is: the most broadly liked film wins. But of course: that’s simplistic because there’s 9000+ ballots: every film probably gets put at the bottom by many, and the average ranking DOES matter (it’s an indicator of which round a film may or may not get eliminated + when it’ll get the points of an eliminated film). If a film has core support at the top, it can benefit from the fact that many of those voters’ OTHER faves films don’t get in…… yes, that will likely make it ride towards the top of the rankings. The average does matter because the winner needs to avoid being eliminated in every subsequent roundit doesn’t need the most #1 votes (unless it can win outright on the first round, which is presumed to be unlikely), but a balance of enough #1 votes & relatively few #8-10s. Mid-to-high averages wouldn’t matter in a non-preferential ballot: THERE, the film that averages the closest to 1 would win. Simple.

    I see a very clear affinity between people who like TPOTD and Passing, The Lost Daughter, Mass, The Humans, C’mon C’mon, Drive My Car, The Worst Person in the World. This is a generalization, but it’s something we can tell amongst ourselves generally speaking. If none of those make it in, it would be natural for those viewers to rank TPOTD highly—but that’s not to say they wouldn’t still, for example, put West Side Story first. They well might! Doesn’t matter—as long as TPOTD is ranked consistently highly enough, it’ll get the points of each eliminated film. Fullstop.

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    kaziz
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    #1204701009

    So there is no danger of ‘splitting the higher ranks’ if the films above if are getting going to get eliminated (which all except one will be).

    If the higher ranks are split……….those films are going to be eliminated. Also, why are you presuming that voters for whom the “crowd-pleasers” are #1 would only put other crowd-pleasers at high ranks? I don’t see a correlation between the particular people who love those films (is there a Belfast + WSS + King Richard affinity? Maybe… but it’s not obvious to me that that’s true at all.) No reason those same people might not rank TPOTD highly—whereas, had they the choice, they might coalesce around Pig instead! Or Passing! Or [insert critically acclaimed indie film here]

    I really don’t mean to be rude btw—I’m very sorry, I’m just argumentative and think my logic makes total sense, but if you want we could try out a few rounds in another thread with the presumptive GD top 10? We’ll be doing that soon anyway.

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    FreemanGriffin
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    Feb 19th, 2012
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    #1204701053

    For me it will completely depend on the ten films that are in the lineup as far as the preferential ballot goes. Based on the ten films I am predicting they would go like this:

    1. West Side Story
    2. Belfast
    3. Don’t Look Up
    4. The Lost Daughter
    5. The Tragedy of Macbeth
    6. Dune
    7. CODA
    8. King Richard
    9. The Power of the Dog
    10. Licorice Pizza

    If those were the ten in the BP lineup. That’s a mix of “crowd-pleasers” and art-house movies.

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    storminthedark
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    #1204701057

    This is stunning. One of the best FYC ads for me in a long time.

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