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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 26)

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    federico rubachin
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    #1204737624

    another thing: in all the years that SAG exist at least there’s two coincidence between SGA noms and DGA noms so yeah, between CODA, king richard and don’t look up there is surely a nominee to the DGA

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    wilfredpickles
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    #1204737676

    another thing: in all the years that SAG exist at least there’s two coincidence between SGA noms and DGA noms so yeah, between CODA, king richard and don’t look up there is surely a nominee to the DGA

    I hadn’t heard of this trend. Assuming Branagh is locked, McKay has made it in at DGA twice before so he shouldn’t have any difficulty getting nominated again. So 2/5 unless King Richard turns out to be a stronger contender overall than it looks at the moment. I love CODA but wouldn’t call it a director’s film.

    I haven’t even seen House of Gucci yet but imagine how funny it would be if they chose chaos and nominated Scott.

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    federico rubachin
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    #1204737683

    I hadn’t heard of this trend. Assuming Branagh is locked, McKay has made it in at DGA twice before so he shouldn’t have any difficulty getting nominated again. So 2/5 unless King Richard turns out to be a stronger contender overall than it looks at the moment. I love CODA but wouldn’t call it a director’s film. I haven’t even seen House of Gucci yet but imagine how funny it would be if they chose chaos and nominated Scott.

    altough McKay gets a DGA nom with vice because have a golden globe director nom with that movie( in awards daily there’s an article that says DGA noms coincide usualy with 3/4 of the golden globe director noms). This year not so is in equal condition with king richard and CODA

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    wolfali
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    #1204737695

    I haven’t even seen House of Gucci yet but imagine how funny it would be if they chose chaos and nominated Scott.

    Scott already missed the BAFTA long-list for director so it would be somewhat surprising if he made it in at DGA.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    Manav
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    #1204737697

    DGA Nominations usually coincide 4/5 with the Oscar nominations, so if two of those SAG ensemble films (other than Belfast) get in, it’s a good look for them for the Oscars.

    Emmy FYC
    -Severance in all categories.
    -Ted Lasso in all categories.
    -The Dropout in all categories.

    -Jennifer Coolidge, Connie Britton, Margaret Qualley, Colin Firth
    -Jung Ho-Yeon, Lee Yoo-Mi, Sarah Snook, Laura Linney.
    -Jean Smart, Kaley Cuoco, Juno Temple, Sarah Lancashire and Martin Short.

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    Eden
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    #1204737717

    If Drive My Car gains enough buzz, I could see Branagh getting the McDonagh treatment in Director.

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    wilfredpickles
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    #1204737730

    Scott already missed the BAFTA long-list for director so it would be somewhat surprising if he made it in at DGA.

    Don’t worry, I don’t actually think he’s got any chance. Reading about the SAG/DGA matchup made me imagine each of the films that made it into Ensemble getting a DGA nom and since I have no opinion of House of Gucci I just pictured people freaking out about it overperforming again.

    To be honest I was only predicting Belfast from the SAG 5 to make it in at DGA, now that I know about the stat I’ll try and figure out where to put McKay.

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    Stefania
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    #1204737741

    I wouldn’t read too much into the SAG/DGA correspondence. Usually the SAG ensemble nominations have more correlation to the top 5 Best Picture nominees, which this year according to GD odds are “The Power of the Dog”, “Belfast”, “West Side Story”, “Dune” and “Licorice Pizza”.

    It’s not like this has suddenly changed with the SAG ensemble nominations. “CODA” or “ King Richard” are not winning Best Picture or receiving a DGA nomination only because they received a SAG ensemble nomination!

    “West Side Story” had screener issues with the SAG nomination committee, “Dune” is not an actor-driven film, “Licorice Pizza” has 2 unknown leads and some extended cameos, while “The Power of the Dog” has a very small ensemble cast of 4 people.

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    #1204738018
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    The Northman
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    #1204738108

    I saw Nightmare Alley, such a shame this film will not make noise awards wise, because it is excellent.

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    The Northman
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    #1204738117

    I know they are clueless, but this is the updated Best Picture Prediction by NBP team.

    THE TOP 10 PREDICTIONS (1/19/22)
    ​1. Belfast
    2. The Power of the Dog
    3. West Side Story
    4. Licorice Pizza
    5. King Richard (^)
    6. Dune (v)
    7. CODA
    8. Don’t Look Up
    9. Being The Ricardos (NEW)
    10. House of Gucci (NEW)

    This is looking very populist line-up.

    Is Tragedy of MacBeth vulnerable?

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    TomJerry
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    #1204738186

    I know they are clueless, but this is the updated Best Picture Prediction by NBP team.

    THE TOP 10 PREDICTIONS (1/19/22)
    ​1. Belfast
    2. The Power of the Dog
    3. West Side Story
    4. Licorice Pizza
    5. King Richard (^)
    6. Dune (v)
    7. CODA
    8. Don’t Look Up
    9. Being The Ricardos (NEW)
    10. House of Gucci (NEW)

    This is looking very populist line-up.

    Is Tragedy of MacBeth vulnerable?

    Lol this is a solid lineup. I’m not sure if Tragedy of MacBeth’s late release strategy would help or hurt its chances. Since it does have Denzel however, it is possible that it could surprise in the BP lineup along with some tech nods. But the problem is it’s not competitive enough in the above the line categories. It’s on a similar trajectory to Nightmare Alley. The two films are interchangeable.

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    superbrats
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    #1204738201

    I know they are clueless, but this is the updated Best Picture Prediction by NBP team. THE TOP 10 PREDICTIONS (1/19/22) ​1. Belfast 2. The Power of the Dog 3. West Side Story 4. Licorice Pizza 5. King Richard (^) 6. Dune (v) 7. CODA 8. Don’t Look Up 9. Being The Ricardos (NEW) 10. House of Gucci (NEW) This is looking very populist line-up. Is Tragedy of MacBeth vulnerable?

    The Tragedy of Macbeth is vulnerable but I don’t think it’s missing BP for Being The Ricardos.

    They are giving SAG too much credit… I doubt all five SAG nominees will get into BP.

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    Stefania
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    #1204738207

    Macbeth better make it instead of BTR!

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