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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 26)

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    Stefania
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    #1204738211

    They are giving SAG too much credit…

    Absolutely. In supporting actor they all rushed to add Affleck in their top 5!

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    #1204738215
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    m_butterfly
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    #1204738222

    I know they are clueless, but this is the updated Best Picture Prediction by NBP team. THE TOP 10 PREDICTIONS (1/19/22) ​1. Belfast 2. The Power of the Dog 3. West Side Story 4. Licorice Pizza 5. King Richard (^) 6. Dune (v) 7. CODA 8. Don’t Look Up 9. Being The Ricardos (NEW) 10. House of Gucci (NEW) This is looking very populist line-up. Is Tragedy of MacBeth vulnerable?

    I feel like people relying too much on the BAFTA longlist, we still don’t know how much of that will translate to actual nominations. HoG still possible but Being the Ricardos is a longshot imo.

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    The Northman
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    #1204738233

    Nightmare Alley was barely mentioned at the BAFTAs Longlist, does this mean it is DOA for Oscars ?

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    Judestar
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    #1204738279

    Nightmare Alley was barely mentioned at the BAFTAs Longlist, does this mean it is DOA for Oscars ?

    Yeah, probably, I went from predicting it to get so many tech nominations to just one or two, with nothing above the line.

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    TomJerry
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    #1204738295

    Nightmare Alley was barely mentioned at the BAFTAs Longlist, does this mean it is DOA for Oscars ?

    Erm, like I mentioned it’s going to be interchangeable with Tragedy of MacBeth. Only one of the films could get in. This is similar to Nightmare Alley over-performing in the Critics Choice Awards. And Tragedy of MacBeth being snubbed on that particular awards (CCA)

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    The Northman
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    #1204738425

    USC Adapted Screenplay 2022 Noms

    Dune – (Screenwriters Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve), based on the novel of the same name (Author Frank Herbert)

    The Lost Daughter – (Screenwriter Maggie Gyllenhaal), based on the novel of the same name (Author Elena Ferrante)

    Passing – (Screenwriter Rebecca Hall), based on the novel of the same name (Author Nella Larsen)

    The Power of the Dog – (Screenwriter Jane Campion), based on the novel of the same name (Author Thomas Savage)

    The Tragedy of Macbeth – (Screenwriter Joel Coen), based on the play Macbeth (Playwright William Shakespeare)

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    kamila
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    #1204738447

    Nightmare Alley was barely mentioned at the BAFTAs Longlist, does this mean it is DOA for Oscars ?

    It was already on its way there after its poor performance below the line on the Oscar longlist, so I’d say so.

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    bettedaviseyes
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    #1204738456

    What is the Drive My Car equivalent to the dance in Another Round or the pillow scene in Amour? I don’t think it’s splitting hairs, there’s a reason why no film like this has ever been nominated for Best Director at the Oscars.

    the final 30-40 minutes of Drive My Car is better than most of the films predicted to get a BP nom this year

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    federico rubachin
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    #1204738524

    I wouldn’t read too much into the SAG/DGA correspondence. Usually the SAG ensemble nominations have more correlation to the top 5 Best Picture nominees, which this year according to GD odds are “The Power of the Dog”, “Belfast”, “West Side Story”, “Dune” and “Licorice Pizza”. It’s not like this has suddenly changed with the SAG ensemble nominations. “CODA” or “ King Richard” are not winning Best Picture or receiving a DGA nomination only because they received a SAG ensemble nomination! “West Side Story” had screener issues with the SAG nomination committee, “Dune” is not an actor-driven film, “Licorice Pizza” has 2 unknown leads and some extended cameos, while “The Power of the Dog” has a very small ensemble cast of 4 people.

    ?? last year GB odds have ma rainey in the top three, so GB odds are not reliable of who is the top 5 of the race. And jojo rabbit was nominated clearly because of the SAG nom. A star is born probably was also nominated for DGA best film only because of  the SAG nom( the other option were black panther, bohemian rhapsody and crzy rich asians) , becausa DGA not like so much his directing and lost in best first film when he was nominated in that category and in best film

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    federico rubachin
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    #1204738535

    but well, if you and the people who like your coment like to be wrong in predictions go ahead and predict licorice pizza in DGA ( at this point seems equivalent to have nightmare alley in oscar best picture prediction)

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    crabbie
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    #1204738586

    Being the Ricardos feels like a weaker Bombshell except it didn’t even make it in SAG ensemble when it should have. Bombshell had a make-up nomination while BTR was snubbed. Bombshell even has a higher Metacritic and audience score. I don’t buy this abomination making it in picture.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    federico rubachin
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    #1204738597

    and the main problem with don’t look up in DGA is that doesn’t seem to be in top 5 of the race by almost no one, more like top 7/8. But CODA and king richard have trades thinking is in top 5 at least

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    Stefania
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    #1204738680

    and the main problem with don’t look up in DGA is that doesn’t seem to be in top 5 of the race by almost no one, more like top 7/8. But CODA and king richard have trades thinking is in top 5 at least

    Even if Adam McKay, Sian Heder or Reinaldo Marcus Green got a DGA nomination, which I think is unlikely, I doubt that they would repeat at the Oscars, so I wouldn’t scratch my head too much.

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    #1204738714

    Macbeth got a scripter nom, I think it’s in the mix for a BP slot.

    And Netflix scored 3 out of 5, no sign of Netflix bias here.

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