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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 26)

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    Zuranthium
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    #1204743048

    The movie is about how the creative proccess of art is impacted by the auteur’s feelings

    What an amazing insight, nobody ever realized before that people make art to express their feelings. I hope his next work is about how the process of pooping is impacted by what you eat, this is also vital information more people need to know about.

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    JV
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    #1204743052

    What an amazing insight, nobody ever realized before that people make art to express their feelings. I hope his next work is about how the process of pooping is impacted by what you eat, this is also vital information more people need to know about.

    You go straight to Ignore, troll.

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    Zuranthium
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    #1204743058

    Don’t be so boring. It’s called irony. I’m simply using that line as an example of the pretention I see surrounding this particular movie and why it’s underwhelming to me. Toni Erdmann vibes.

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    Cosmia
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    #1204743076

    Don’t be so boring. It’s called irony. I’m simply using that line as an example of the pretention I see surrounding this particular movie and why it’s underwhelming to me. Toni Erdmann vibes.

    What the fuck does Toni Erdmann have to do with anything? They are completely different movies.

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    #1204743078
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    wolfali
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    #1204743085

    Drive My Car being compared to Toni Erdmann is actually a compliment considering both films should be easily winning/have won their respective Best Picture races lol.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    kbc
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    #1204743130

    NY Mag’s Vulture Updates “Oscar Futures”

    Vulture essentially is on pause this go-around, with no changes to his official predix for the first time this season, during a virtual “bye” week for precursors aside from the USC Scripter noms. As usual, he pours speculation into his buzz-o-meter briefs, though he raises nothing that earth-shaking – the boldest he gets is suggesting that Jon Bernthal and Jesse Plemons are strong contenders to be the nomination-morning “surprise” among acting contenders with negligible precursor momentum, thanks to their appearing in expected BP nominees with strong leading-actor candidates.

    As an aside, nice to see some positive focus on one of my longtime picks, Bernthal – is it possible he truly is a stronger candidate to avoid the “Slap the Stud” curse in supporting actor than Jamie Dornan?

    I figure when the next Oscar Futures installment debuts next Friday, in the immediate wake of the PGA, WGA, DGA and ACE noms, we may well see a return to his pattern of some shuffling in official predix.

    And, well, i just gotta say, regarding Vulture’s Best Actor buzz-o-meter commentary (where he flags Nicolas Cage as a contender who could slip past Bardem and Vulture’s current prediction of DiCaprio for that last slot), I found Clifton Collins Jr. to be a 5th-spot contender that “blows me away,” at least 😉

    Excerpts:

    PICTURE
    UP: The Tragedy of Macbeth
    While Macbeth has lurked in the shadows of the Best Picture conversation, Apple TV+ projects do tend to be slower-burning than other streamers’. If the Academy once again skews more auteur-friendly than the precursors, King Duncan might not be the only one getting usurped
    UP: The Power of the Dog
    Its appearance at this week’s USC Scripter nominations, a key bellwether for Adapted Screenplay, is a reminder of its potency. The road to Best Picture runs through Director and Screenplay, and Campion has a fair shot at picking up both.
    Predix: Bfast/BTR/CODA/
    DLU/Dune/HoG/KR/
    LP/TPOTD/WSS
    Unchanged

    DIRECTOR
    UP: Kenneth Branagh
    Wags have joked about the possibility of Death on the Nile becoming Branagh’s Norbit, but that hazard appears to have passed: Disney scheduled the sequel’s review embargo to lift Feb. 7, a week after Oscar nomination voting ends. Branagh’s Belfast candidacy will sink or swim on its own merits.
    DOWN: Asghar Farhadi
    Though A Hero, an intricately constructed morality play about Iranian cancel culture, has been positively received, it hits Amazon Prime this weekend stuck behind Drive My Car in a traffic jam in the international-cinephile lane.
    Predix: PTAnderson/Campion/
    Hamaguchi/Spielberg/
    Villeneuve
    Unchanged

    ACTOR
    EVEN: Peter Dinklage
    MGM is slow-playing Cyrano, dropping it in limited release on the eve of nomination voting before going wide during Phase Two. I’ve been bearish on the film, but I do want to credit its team for an innovative promotional strategy: It apparently got NBC’s Los Angeles affiliate to air a 30-minute behind-the-scenes featurette at 7:30 p.m. on Wednesday. Know your audience!
    UP: Nicolas Cage
    After a few exciting Best Actor races, we’re back to a world where none of the options for the fifth spot exactly blow you away. Besides Dinklage, there’s SAG nominee Bardem in an Oscar-friendly biopic role and DiCaprio leading a presumed Best Picture player. Neither of them feel likely to garner too many No. 1 votes, so perhaps there is room for a surprise passion pick like Cage to sneak in?
    Predix: Cumberbatch/DiCaprio/
    Garfield/Smith/Washington
    Unchanged

    ACTRESS
    UP: Nicole Kidman
    After the precipitous fall of presumed front-runner Stewart, early advantage would seem to go to Kidman, who is furrowing fertile soil with this biopic transformation. She already won the Globe, and considering SAG liked Ricardos enough to hand Bardem a coattail nomination, she could come into the Oscars with two major precursors on her side.
    UP: Olivia Colman
    She has home-field advantage at the BAFTAs and may see a degree-of-difficulty bonus … her role is designed to test the audience’s sympathy at every turn. That both Kidman and Colman are past Best Actress winners adds another wrinkle — can Chastain or Gaga make the case that it’s their time now?
    Predix: Chastain/Colman/
    Gaga/Kidman/Stewart
    Unchanged

    SUPP ACTOR
    UP: Jon Bernthal
    He got a moment in the sun this week courtesy of a New York Times profile that painted him as the consummate egoless supporting player. The photos also remind readers that, despite his goofy-sidekick role in KR, the actor is actually a total hunk. That’s its own kind of transformation, even if it’s one less likely to catch the Academy’s eye.
    UP: Jesse Plemons
    To have a shot at getting an Oscar nom despite missing at the precursors, the numbers suggest you should be in a Best Picture contender with a strong lead acting performance. Bernthal fits the bill, but with TPOTD surging, Plemons’s nice-guy suitor seems the most likely candidate for a nomination-morning surprise.
    Predix: Cooper/Hinds/
    Kotsur/Leto/Smit-McPhee
    Unchanged

    SUPP ACTRESS
    UP: Ariana DeBose
    Though WSS had yet another disheartening snub at the USC Scripters, DeBose keeps racking up precursor wins and is the current odds-on bet to take home the trophy.
    DOWN: Kirsten Dunst
    She seems to be losing ground even while TPOTD continues to clean up. While Cumberbatch and Smit-McPhee have been dominating their respective races, she trails both DeBose and Negga in terms of precursors. Is TPOTD simply getting its due elsewhere, or do its male roles carry an element of surprise that Dunst’s lacks?
    Predix: Balfe/DeBose/
    Dunst/Ellis/Negga
    Unchanged

    FYC
    Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
    Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
    Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
    Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
    Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
    Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
    Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
    Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

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    Zuranthium
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    #1204743152

    What the fuck does Toni Erdmann have to do with anything?

    Overlong, overhyped, visually underwhelming “high brow” selections, both with surprise scenes of nudity that frame the narrative in some way.

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    Babylonian
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    #1204743224

    Finally got around to watching CODA. It was cute and all, but I thought it was only medium as far as being an Oscar caliber film in the BP conversation.

    FYC:

    Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category

    Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga for Best Original Song

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    belfastan
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    #1204743510

    Serious question: is TPOTD getting less credit for its GG win than Belfast would have gotten? If as many predicted, Belfast had won GG drama, many would have said, see. Belfast IS the front runner; indeed, I’m sure some would have said it’s the start of the sweep of the televised awards. Given TPOTD won, it seems to have been not seen as a sign of strength by many, of a sign of weakness of Belfast. Just my opinion, for those who may be triggered.

    Why are TPOTD stans so threatened by Belfast? They want assurance that it’s dead for good. That’s not going to happen. It just came in #1 on Friday at the competitive UK box office (and will probably end up #2 for the weekend) and even the majority of the cynical Twitter crowd is loving it. Guillermo del Toro recently interviewed Branagh for a campaign piece, joining Christopher Nolan to add some auteur support.

    TPOTD is the clear frontrunner now (and will likely win it all) and has everything going for it, but Belfast will have a tiny chance until it’s over.

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    CarlosEdu
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    #1204743545

    Drive My Car should be winning easily many categories this year. I hope that the movie gets at least a Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay nomination, Best Picture too but I don’t know if still has a chance after the BAFTA longlist of Best Film and the movie didn’t appear there.

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    kingfan011
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    #1204743555

    I wonder if Licorice Pizza is still getting in either Director or Picture. Its slowly fading away and being forgotten

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    Lucas
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    Jun 24th, 2020
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    #1204743571

    I wonder if Licorice Pizza is still getting in either Director or Picture. Its slowly fading away and being forgotten

    There’s literally no reason to believe that it could miss Picture. It did fantastic with BAFTA, it got a SAG nomination out of nowhere and now it can get a nice package at the Oscars (Picture, Director, S. Actor, Screenplay, ¿maybe Editing?)

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    The Oscarguy
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    #1204743620

    There’s literally no reason to believe that it could miss Picture. It did fantastic with BAFTA, it got a SAG nomination out of nowhere and now it can get a nice package at the Oscars (Picture, Director, S. Actor, Screenplay, ¿maybe Editing?)

    Costumes as well (they can’t resist Mark Bridges).

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1204743791

    Just saw Flee and I am still digesting all of my emotions about it; so incredibly moving and so well done! Could it possibly get in to BP? It will likely get in for Documentary, Animated, and International Film – all thoroughly deserved, but I wonder if it can also be lifted into Best Picture? It would be a very deserving nominee! I can’t stress how moving this movie was for me – I will be thinking about it for a very long time in the future…

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