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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 26)

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    The Northman
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    Nov 10th, 2021
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    #1204745558

    I wish the “experts” would predict rather than campaign. It’s funny that after Belfast’s SAG misses & GG losses, some are pushing Belfast even harder. Some are even more sure it will win now. It’s silly.

    Belfast is doing amazing post wide release. 91% Audience Score and in regards to SAG, it scored ensemble and supporting actress, just 1 nom less than TPOD. I am highly convinced on Feb. 3rd Belfast will overperform on the final BAFTAs noms and few days later on Oscar noms. This is the point Power of the Dog will start losing steam and Belfast will start winning all guilds from this point and on.

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    federico rubachin
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    #1204745566

    The BAFTAs almost always match up with the Globes in best film. If 4 time LFCC winner, 10 time BIFA and 7 time BAFTA winning The Favourite can’t win best film there even with the most nominations and a wide open Oscar race… I doubt Belfast will be able to. Of course that’s not to say it still can’t do well there though.

    altough maybe the favourite didn’t win because of the lack of DGA nomination ( in the last 30 years only two movies win BAFTA best picture without DGA nom)

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    wolfali
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    #1204745569

    altough maybe the favourite didn’t win because of the lack of DGA nomination ( in the last 30 years only two movies win BAFTA best picture without DGA nom)

    30 years ago BAFTA wasn’t even a precursor so I doubt it.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    federico rubachin
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    #1204745578

    when stared to be a precursor?

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    Sep 24th, 2021
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    #1204745586

    Belfast lost GG picture & it failed to get either supporting actor in SAG. I’m not saying it can’t or won’t win BP, but these misses should  make you less confident in it, not more. I guess some are seeing it’s weaknesses which is why they are pushing it hard.

    Again, for those obsessed with audiences scores. MC ratings in the preferential era have an amazing strike rate. All winners have been 86+ evenly Green Book on 69. Belfast on 77 is no where near BP territory unless it’s a green book year.

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    BoBo
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    Jan 20th, 2021
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    #1204745593

    my point was are so many ineligible films in WGA that makes no sense to thing king richard is not goint to be nominated there, vulnerable or not a least is going to be nominated by process of elimination

    While you make a fair point, I disagree that it “makes no sense” to think that the WGA lineup could look like this:

    Being the Ricardos
    C’mon C’mon
    Don’t Look Up
    The French Dispatch
    Licorice Pizza 

    Regardless,  I’m back to thinking King Richard is safe for picture again, lol.

     

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    #1204745595
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    M
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    #1204745606

    I wish the “experts” would predict rather than campaign. It’s funny that after Belfast’s SAG misses & GG losses, some are pushing Belfast even harder. Some are even more sure it will win now. It’s silly.

    It’s just laughable. And the reality is they still don’t realize it has no impact in the end. The voters will go with whatever they like best. So they’re jeopardizing their credibility for nothing.

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    #1204745614

    Every BP winner since 1948 has won either the NBR, the Golden Globe for Best Picture the DGA or the WGA.

    Belfast is WGA ineligible so it needs DGA to win. Does anyone think Branagh is winning DGA?

    This leaves LP, TPOTD, WSS and whomever wins WGA or DGA for BP.

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    #1204745620

    It’s just laughable. And the reality is they still don’t realize it has no impact in the end. The voters will go with whatever they like best. So they’re jeopardizing their credibility for nothing.

    in fact, voters hate being told who to vote for. Close & Boseman lost, Green Book won.

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    jamon__serrano
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    Sep 7th, 2021
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    #1204745631

    When The Power of the Dog wins BP, people go to Netflix to watch it, and then find themselves bored again after Nomadland won last year, lol.

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    #1204745646

    AMPAS chooses what it likes best, they don’t care about what people think. How else do you explain Hopkins’ very well-deserved win last year?

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    Taytay129
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    Oct 12th, 2021
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    #1204745652

    If they give Branagh DGA it will be kings speech levels of cringe.

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    #1204745659

    Surely they can’t. Please don’t let this be a Social Network/King’s Speech year.

    In any case, TPOTD has King Benedict in it, no one should assume the British contingent is locked for Belfast.

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    federico rubachin
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    #1204745674

    Every BP winner since 1948 has won either the NBR, the Golden Globe for Best Picture the DGA or the WGA. Belfast is WGA ineligible so it needs DGA to win. Does anyone think Branagh is winning DGA? This leaves LP, TPOTD, WSS and whomever wins WGA or DGA for BP.

    yeah CODA, that’s why i said it could win. That’s algo the reason feinberg now sugest very stong belfast will win DGA

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