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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 26)

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    Spenser
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    May 22nd, 2011
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    #1204732098

    I’m curious if anyone else has been feeling this… Last year, there were these incredible, smaller films that climbed the ladder based purely on the passion behind them (JUDAS, SOUND OF METAL, THE FATHER) that I ended up falling head over heels for. But nothing this season is inspiring that same sort of passion for me, and it’s bumming me out. Granted, I haven’t seen CODA or LICORICE PIZZA yet, but every other likely Best Picture nod by-and-large have left me underwhelmed… nothing *feels* like a Best Picture that I’ve seen. Anyone else been fighting this feeling this season?

    Anyway, Diary Entry over, haha. Here are my January predictions, based on likelihood of nomination:

    BEST PICTURE
    1. The Power of the Dog
    2. Belfast
    3. West Side Story
    4. Don’t Look Up
    5. Dune
    6. CODA
    7. King Richard
    8. Licorice Pizza
    9. Being the Ricardos
    10. The Lost Daughter
    ALT. House of Gucci

    I do not think POWER OF THE DOG should win Best Picture, but it is looking more and more likely. The big unknown for me is HOUSE OF GUCCI – between the SAG Ensemble nod and its appearances across the BAFTA longlists, I feel like this might be that Bad Movie That Gets In, if only because those ten slots are guaranteed.

    BEST DIRECTOR
    1. Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog”
    2. Steven Spielberg, “West Side Story”
    3. Kenneth Branagh, “Belfast”
    4. Denis Villeneuve, “Dune”
    5. Maggie Gyllenhaal, “The Lost Daughter”
    ALT. Paul Thomas Anderson, “Licorice Pizza”

    Yes, I’m placing Gyllenhaal in Best Director over Anderson. The last few years especially, there have been actors-turned-directors who have played the game really well – thinking Gerwig, Peele, Fennell – made killer debuts, and that the Directors Branch have embraced with a nomination. If there’s any newbie that they’d welcome to the club this year, she’ll be it. She’s making all the right moves, she’s likely going to win the First-Time Director Award with DGA, and I continue to worry how much the Academy will actually warm up to LICORICE PIZZA. They’ve done right by Anderson in the past, like when they completely unexpectedly went wild for him and PHANTOM THREAD, but Gyllenhaal is my risk prediction here.

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    Judestar
    Joined:
    Oct 6th, 2021
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    #1204732329

    PTA will get in. No one in the industry likes Belfast.

    And this is based on what exactly? People still don’t want to believe that people like Belfast.

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    TomJerry
    Joined:
    Oct 4th, 2020
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    #1204732343

    And this is based on what exactly? People still don’t want to believe that people like Belfast.

    Belfast will get a lot of nominations I agree. I think Belfast is well liked enough to get a Best Director nomination. Yes.

    A Best Director snub would definitely be surprising for most.

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    Jan 1st, 1970
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    #1204732349
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    Babylonian
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    Aug 16th, 2021
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    #1204732384

    1. Denis Villeneuve

    2. Steven Spielberg

    3. Jane Campion

    4. Kenneth Branagh

    5. Joel Coen

    FYC:

    Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category

    Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga for Best Original Song

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    String Cheese Theory
    Joined:
    Aug 16th, 2020
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    #1204732396

    Licorice Pizza is not coming out in the country I live in and I am asking super dooper nicely someone with access to a screener to please share a link with me, and I will make a donation to an organisation of your choice, in the arts or anything else.

    DM me if you can help a sister out.

    Bill Hader and Barry in everything (2 babka)
    The Great - Elle Fanning, Nicholas Hoult and comedy writing and directing

    Severance in drama series, writing, Adam Scott for best actor, Ben Stiller for drama directing, and the whole cast in supporting.

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    SaulAtreides
    Joined:
    Jul 27th, 2021
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    #1204732413

    My parents saw it and despised it. And they loved Bohemian Rhapsody. No passion whatsoever for Branagh.

    Are your parents Mr and Mrs. Scorsese? How is this relevant to the industry.

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    OscarWatcher1971
    Joined:
    Sep 24th, 2021
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    #1204732463

    Belfast had stumbled every time it’s been tested. It got nothing at Gothams, it won 0 out of 11 BIFA noms after being snubbed in picture, director & screenplay, it lost GG Picture and Director and both supporting actors missed at SAG.

    Surely it can still win Best Picture but this sense that’s it’s this extraordinarily popular film riding a wave to Oscar glory just isn’t playing out.

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    The Way of The Wind
    Joined:
    Sep 22nd, 2011
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    #1204732497

    Locks:
    The Power of the Dog
    Belfast
    Dune
    King Richard
    West Side Story

    Strong contender
    CODA
    Dont Look Up
    Licorice Pizza

    Maybe
    Drive My Car
    Nightmare Alley
    The Tragedy of MacBeth
    The Lost Daughter
    Spencer
    House of Gucci
    Being the Ricardos

    2023 Oscar
    Best Picture: The Way of The Wind
    Best Director: Decision to Leave
    Best Actress: TAR
    Best Actor: The Whale
    Best Supporting Actress: The Whale
    Best Supporting Actor: Poor Things

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    Babylonian
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    Aug 16th, 2021
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    #1204732503

    Not sure if anyone has pointed this out but I find it interesting that Blade Runner’s critic and audience scores were higher than Dune’s, same with Arrival: https://www.metacritic.com/movie/blade-runner-2049 Villeneuve’s is still really strong I think but the narrative that it’s his best work doesn’t hold water

    Dune is rated higher than BR: 2049 on IMDb and has a higher Rotten Tomatoes audience score…why do you guys keep pulling from these irrelevant sites to force a false cherry picked narrative?

    FYC:

    Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category

    Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga for Best Original Song

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    Babylonian
    Joined:
    Aug 16th, 2021
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    #1204732505

    Dune is in the IMDB Top 250 and has a 90% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s an audience favorite. It’s time to stop underestimating it.

    FYC:

    Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category

    Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga for Best Original Song

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    SaulAtreides
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    Jul 27th, 2021
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    #1204732592

    Villeneuve is such a consistent director that there’s no single film in his filmography has a “best work” narrative, Incedies, Prisoners, Arrival, BR2049, Dunne, all have their fans. It’s hard to argue that of his films Dune has made the biggest splash.

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    LLLhawks
    Joined:
    Dec 28th, 2018
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    #1204732596

    Has there ever been a surprise director nominee that became a surprise director nominee again in a later year? These “this director is getting in because he got in last time” arguments seem off to me.

    I just love movies. And awards.

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    kamila
    Joined:
    Dec 6th, 2021
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    #1204732654

    Jordan Ruimy (I know, I know…) wrote this on his website: If this is true, could be the late Macbeth surge we’ve been anticipating, although I don’t see much momentum for Denzel to win, but stranger things have happened.

    I don’t see momentum for Denzel to win, but he could definitely peel votes away from frontrunners.

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    Cosmia
    Joined:
    Oct 19th, 2021
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    #1204732664

    I don’t see momentum for Denzel to win, but he could definitely peel votes away from frontrunners.

    But from who? He could peel art-film votes away from Cumberbatch, or maybe some voters would prefer him over Smith–for an actor of his stature, twenty years is a long gap between Oscars.

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