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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 26)

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    kamila
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    #1204732672

    But from who? He could peel art-film votes away from Cumberbatch, or maybe some voters would prefer him over Smith–for an actor of his stature, twenty years is a long gap between Oscars.

    Likely a bit from both for exactly the reasons you have there.

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1204732676

    But from who? He could peel art-film votes away from Cumberbatch, or maybe some voters would prefer him over Smith–for an actor of his stature, twenty years is a long gap between Oscars.

    InB4 he reaps the benefit of a vote split

    Garfield

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    #1204732833
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    Heptapod
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    #1204733135

    I think Tick Tick Boom and Being the Ricardos will hit PGA but be replaced by Macbeth and Drive My Car at the Oscars.

    FYC: PHYSICAL (Rose Byrne) THE SEX LIVES OF COLLEGE GIRLS (Amrit Kaur, Renee Rapp) YELLOWJACKETS (Samantha Hanratty, Christina Ricci) THE OTHER TWO (Drew Tarver, Helene Yorke) THE GREAT (Elle Fanning) BETTER THINGS (Pamela Adlon)

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    Spenser
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    #1204733184

    Gerwig, Peele, and Fennell all directed movies that general audiences enjoyed and didn’t tank like Lost Daughter did with then Gen Pub. I don’t see her getting in at all with as divisive as TLD is. I’m actually dropping her from Adapted Screenplay as well.

    I understand that you may be going off something like the RT Audience Score to come to this conclusion, but even if that proves it to be divisive for audiences, I don’t think that that score serves as an indicator that the Directors Branch won’t take to it, anymore than a high RT Audience Score might serve as proof that they *will.*

    This branch has always danced to a different drummer. They hold the keys to their clubhouse tightly, and if they admire the work of a colleague, I’d argue that the Audience Score isn’t really on their mind when they turn in their ballots… certainly matters less than a poor box office performance, which doesn’t factor in here, given that LOST DAUGHTER is on Netflix.

    Also, the film’s source material was always divisive and not for everyone; there’s nothing populist about it, and it certainly wasn’t aiming at anything close to the same exact audience base as GET OUT or LADY BIRD. Those who love it *adore* it… but it isn’t an easy film to love, and I think the score you’re likely using as a metric is a clear sign of that.

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    Marcus.H
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    #1204733236

    But from who? He could peel art-film votes away from Cumberbatch, or maybe some voters would prefer him over Smith–for an actor of his stature, twenty years is a long gap between Oscars.

    Above all, he delivered the strongest performance among these 3. That’s the main reason. He tied with Garfield as the best BA contender this year imo.

    Coen-Lynch-Fellini

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    Thapelo Mosiuoa
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    #1204733303

    Best Picture is definitely down to Belfast and Power of the Dog. The Acadamy is still too snobby to give best picture to a Netflix movie (even though it deserves it) so I’m expecting Belfast to win Best Picture and Jane Campion to win Best Director.

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    kbc
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    #1204733307

    NY Mag’s Vulture Updates “Oscar Futures”

    Vulture appears to have settled in to a pattern of tweak-and-retweak in his predix refreshes, adding some film or some performer one week only to remove them the next. (For example, BTR returns after being bumped out for Spider-Man, which has been evicted in this installment.)

    Ruth Negga is again back in the predix, after several weeks of oscillating between in and out. Stewart holds on despite her SAG snub. As noted in Vulture’s buzz-o-meter, LP’s Cooper rides in to his first appearance in the Oscar Futures, but at the expense of Belfast‘s Dornan.

    Also: HoG makes its debut in Vulture’s BP predix in the wake of that SAG ensemble nom (Vulture flags this move in the buzz-o-meter), and Gaga and Chastain quietly reclaim their former slots in actress, as SAG non-nominees Cruz and Zegler are shown the door.

    Excerpts:

    PICTURE
    UP: House of Gucci
    With strong support from the Academy’s largest branch, and a not-totally-depressing box office, is this our elusive 10th nominee?
    DOWN: West Side Story
    Screener access was apparently an issue [with the SAGs], but even so, a self-inflicted wound is not ideal for a film that aspires to be a major contender. And with the Golden Globes going Twitter-only, I doubt WSS’s big wins there are the best medicine.
    Predix: Bfast/BTR/CODA/
    DLU/Dune/HoG/KR/
    LP/TPOTD/WSS
    IN: House of Gucci
    (BACK) IN: Being the Ricardos
    OUT: Spider-Man: No Way Home
    (BACK) OUT: The Lost Daughter

    DIRECTOR
    UP: Jane Campion
    The status quo is good enough for the current Best Director front-runner, who added to her lead with a win at the zombie-Globes Sunday night.
    EVEN: Kenneth Branagh
    The Globes preferred TPOTD to Belfast, but they handed Branagh Best Screenplay as a consolation prize. That’s a plausible vision of how Oscars Night might unfold as well.
    Predix: PTAnderson/Campion/
    Hamaguchi/Spielberg/
    Villeneuve
    Unchanged

    ACTOR
    UP: Will Smith
    With that Globe win and spots at SAG and the BAFTA longlist secured, this train seems to be arriving right on schedule.
    DOWN: Peter Dinklage
    Rivals like Bardem and DiCaprio are repping titles in the Best Picture conversation, while Cyrano keeps getting delayed.
    Predix: Cumberbatch/DiCaprio/
    Garfield/Smith/Washington
    Unchanged

    ACTRESS
    DOWN: Kristen Stewart
    Do Oscar pundits know everything? They don’t. The woman we’d crowned the early front-runner fell to Earth this week…An Oscar nomination is still in the cards, but to win, all she needs is a miracle.
    UP: Nicole Kidman
    I don’t know if an imaginary portrait of Lucille Ball is the kind of movie Kidman’s fans were hoping she’d win her second Oscar for, but they might want to start making space for the possibility.
    Predix: Chastain/Colman/
    Gaga/Kidman/Stewart
    (BACK) IN: Jessica Chastain, Lady Gaga
    OUT: Rachel Zegler
    (BACK) OUT: Penélope Cruz

    SUPP ACTOR
    UP: Bradley Cooper
    Some of us discounted Cooper’s gonzo turn as Jon Peters due to his lack of screen time, but SAG didn’t mind.
    DOWN: Jamie Dornan
    I doubt the [SAG] double snub will repeat at the Oscars, though if there’s just one spot, Hinds is the one who most embodies Belfast’s charm. Considering Hollywood’s well-known bias against extremely handsome men, Dornan may find himself outside the final five.
    Predix: Cooper/Hinds/
    Kotsur/Leto/Smit-McPhee
    IN: Bradley Cooper
    OUT: Jamie Dornan

    SUPP ACTRESS
    UP: Ruth Negga
    If you’re looking for a wild card to go along with the Best Picture quartet of Balfe, DeBose, Dunst and Ellis, Negga is your safest bet.
    DOWN: Aunjanue Ellis
    She will have to hope the Academy considers her and Smith more of a package deal than Guild voters did.
    Predix: Balfe/DeBose/
    Dunst/Ellis/Negga
    (BACK) IN: Ruth Negga
    OUT: Jessie Buckley

    FYC
    Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
    Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
    Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
    Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
    Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
    Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
    Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
    Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

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    kbc
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    #1204733344

    VANITY FAIR: CODA writer-director Sian Heder had to fight for years to make her groundbreaking movie the right way. With the Oscars around the corner, she’s still being underestimated.

    VF: In the context of this season, CODA gets talked about as more of a “crowd-pleaser,” or feel-good movie. I know you’ve spoken a little bit about that and some mixed feelings on the term, which I totally get.

    SH: I shouldn’t react to the term “crowd-pleaser” because that is what you want, the crowd is the audience. [Laughs]

    VF: The crowd is pleased.

    SH: If the audience is pleased watching your movie you should be so lucky. I don’t know. I guess in a way there’s always been this relationship when you’re talking about indie film: Does a movie need to be hard to watch? Does it need to challenge you or fuck with your head or leave you feeling nihilistic in order to mean something? Even though I came out of this indie world, I’ve always been drawn to hope and a certain warmth within a story that in a way might move more over into a commercial space.

    FYC
    Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
    Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
    Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
    Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
    Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
    Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
    Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
    Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

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    TomJerry
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    #1204733812

    It’s everywhere. But yes foreign/international films are a bit harder to access.

    I’ve yet to see Parallel Mothers 🙁

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    TomJerry
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    #1204733872

    Oh, you mean like illegally? Yeah, I won’t be doing that. Not Judging people that do that of course, but I’d rather wait for it in VOD or streaming then.

    Lol. Yeah. Of course. With international films they’re quite impossible. They don’t if rarely show on local theaters, VOD or even streaming.

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    touchofmyfeet
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    #1204734130

    This race is boring lmao. I missed the Parasite one.

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    JV
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    #1204734154

    This race is boring lmao. I missed the Parasite one.

    The one where the four acting performances swept ? (Two of them undeserved, Dern and Pitt) No, thank you.

    This year we have 3 unpredictable races in Actor, Actress and Supporting Actor, with Picture unpredictable as well.

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    James Gibson
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    #1204734156

    This race is boring lmao. I missed the Parasite one.

    While 1917 was sweeping left and right that season also became a bore. But ofc had a lovely ending.

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    #1204734221

    Belfast’s snub at set decorator’s guild is interesting. TPOTD got in. Again, I’m not saying Belfast can’t or won’t win BP, but it keeps on showing weakness…

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