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But from who? He could peel art-film votes away from Cumberbatch, or maybe some voters would prefer him over Smith–for an actor of his stature, twenty years is a long gap between Oscars.
Likely a bit from both for exactly the reasons you have there.
But from who? He could peel art-film votes away from Cumberbatch, or maybe some voters would prefer him over Smith–for an actor of his stature, twenty years is a long gap between Oscars.
InB4 he reaps the benefit of a vote split
This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.I think Tick Tick Boom and Being the Ricardos will hit PGA but be replaced by Macbeth and Drive My Car at the Oscars.
FYC: PHYSICAL (Rose Byrne) THE SEX LIVES OF COLLEGE GIRLS (Amrit Kaur, Renee Rapp) YELLOWJACKETS (Samantha Hanratty, Christina Ricci) THE OTHER TWO (Drew Tarver, Helene Yorke) THE GREAT (Elle Fanning) BETTER THINGS (Pamela Adlon)
Gerwig, Peele, and Fennell all directed movies that general audiences enjoyed and didn’t tank like Lost Daughter did with then Gen Pub. I don’t see her getting in at all with as divisive as TLD is. I’m actually dropping her from Adapted Screenplay as well.
I understand that you may be going off something like the RT Audience Score to come to this conclusion, but even if that proves it to be divisive for audiences, I don’t think that that score serves as an indicator that the Directors Branch won’t take to it, anymore than a high RT Audience Score might serve as proof that they *will.*
This branch has always danced to a different drummer. They hold the keys to their clubhouse tightly, and if they admire the work of a colleague, I’d argue that the Audience Score isn’t really on their mind when they turn in their ballots… certainly matters less than a poor box office performance, which doesn’t factor in here, given that LOST DAUGHTER is on Netflix.
Also, the film’s source material was always divisive and not for everyone; there’s nothing populist about it, and it certainly wasn’t aiming at anything close to the same exact audience base as GET OUT or LADY BIRD. Those who love it *adore* it… but it isn’t an easy film to love, and I think the score you’re likely using as a metric is a clear sign of that.
But from who? He could peel art-film votes away from Cumberbatch, or maybe some voters would prefer him over Smith–for an actor of his stature, twenty years is a long gap between Oscars.
Above all, he delivered the strongest performance among these 3. That’s the main reason. He tied with Garfield as the best BA contender this year imo.
Coen-Lynch-Fellini
Best Picture is definitely down to Belfast and Power of the Dog. The Acadamy is still too snobby to give best picture to a Netflix movie (even though it deserves it) so I’m expecting Belfast to win Best Picture and Jane Campion to win Best Director.
NY Mag’s Vulture Updates “Oscar Futures”
Vulture appears to have settled in to a pattern of tweak-and-retweak in his predix refreshes, adding some film or some performer one week only to remove them the next. (For example, BTR returns after being bumped out for Spider-Man, which has been evicted in this installment.)
Ruth Negga is again back in the predix, after several weeks of oscillating between in and out. Stewart holds on despite her SAG snub. As noted in Vulture’s buzz-o-meter, LP’s Cooper rides in to his first appearance in the Oscar Futures, but at the expense of Belfast‘s Dornan.
Also: HoG makes its debut in Vulture’s BP predix in the wake of that SAG ensemble nom (Vulture flags this move in the buzz-o-meter), and Gaga and Chastain quietly reclaim their former slots in actress, as SAG non-nominees Cruz and Zegler are shown the door.
Excerpts:
PICTURE
UP: House of Gucci
With strong support from the Academy’s largest branch, and a not-totally-depressing box office, is this our elusive 10th nominee?
DOWN: West Side Story
Screener access was apparently an issue [with the SAGs], but even so, a self-inflicted wound is not ideal for a film that aspires to be a major contender. And with the Golden Globes going Twitter-only, I doubt WSS’s big wins there are the best medicine.
Predix: Bfast/BTR/CODA/
DLU/Dune/HoG/KR/
LP/TPOTD/WSS
IN: House of Gucci
(BACK) IN: Being the Ricardos
OUT: Spider-Man: No Way Home
(BACK) OUT: The Lost DaughterDIRECTOR
UP: Jane Campion
The status quo is good enough for the current Best Director front-runner, who added to her lead with a win at the zombie-Globes Sunday night.
EVEN: Kenneth Branagh
The Globes preferred TPOTD to Belfast, but they handed Branagh Best Screenplay as a consolation prize. That’s a plausible vision of how Oscars Night might unfold as well.
Predix: PTAnderson/Campion/
Hamaguchi/Spielberg/
Villeneuve
UnchangedACTOR
UP: Will Smith
With that Globe win and spots at SAG and the BAFTA longlist secured, this train seems to be arriving right on schedule.
DOWN: Peter Dinklage
Rivals like Bardem and DiCaprio are repping titles in the Best Picture conversation, while Cyrano keeps getting delayed.
Predix: Cumberbatch/DiCaprio/
Garfield/Smith/Washington
UnchangedACTRESS
DOWN: Kristen Stewart
Do Oscar pundits know everything? They don’t. The woman we’d crowned the early front-runner fell to Earth this week…An Oscar nomination is still in the cards, but to win, all she needs is a miracle.
UP: Nicole Kidman
I don’t know if an imaginary portrait of Lucille Ball is the kind of movie Kidman’s fans were hoping she’d win her second Oscar for, but they might want to start making space for the possibility.
Predix: Chastain/Colman/
Gaga/Kidman/Stewart
(BACK) IN: Jessica Chastain, Lady Gaga
OUT: Rachel Zegler
(BACK) OUT: Penélope CruzSUPP ACTOR
UP: Bradley Cooper
Some of us discounted Cooper’s gonzo turn as Jon Peters due to his lack of screen time, but SAG didn’t mind.
DOWN: Jamie Dornan
I doubt the [SAG] double snub will repeat at the Oscars, though if there’s just one spot, Hinds is the one who most embodies Belfast’s charm. Considering Hollywood’s well-known bias against extremely handsome men, Dornan may find himself outside the final five.
Predix: Cooper/Hinds/
Kotsur/Leto/Smit-McPhee
IN: Bradley Cooper
OUT: Jamie DornanSUPP ACTRESS
UP: Ruth Negga
If you’re looking for a wild card to go along with the Best Picture quartet of Balfe, DeBose, Dunst and Ellis, Negga is your safest bet.
DOWN: Aunjanue Ellis
She will have to hope the Academy considers her and Smith more of a package deal than Guild voters did.
Predix: Balfe/DeBose/
Dunst/Ellis/Negga
(BACK) IN: Ruth Negga
OUT: Jessie BuckleyFYC
Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
Best Adapted Screenplay: David KajganichVF: In the context of this season, CODA gets talked about as more of a “crowd-pleaser,” or feel-good movie. I know you’ve spoken a little bit about that and some mixed feelings on the term, which I totally get.
SH: I shouldn’t react to the term “crowd-pleaser” because that is what you want, the crowd is the audience. [Laughs]
VF: The crowd is pleased.
SH: If the audience is pleased watching your movie you should be so lucky. I don’t know. I guess in a way there’s always been this relationship when you’re talking about indie film: Does a movie need to be hard to watch? Does it need to challenge you or fuck with your head or leave you feeling nihilistic in order to mean something? Even though I came out of this indie world, I’ve always been drawn to hope and a certain warmth within a story that in a way might move more over into a commercial space.
FYC
Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
Best Adapted Screenplay: David KajganichIt’s everywhere. But yes foreign/international films are a bit harder to access.
I’ve yet to see Parallel Mothers 🙁
Oh, you mean like illegally? Yeah, I won’t be doing that. Not Judging people that do that of course, but I’d rather wait for it in VOD or streaming then.
Lol. Yeah. Of course. With international films they’re quite impossible. They don’t if rarely show on local theaters, VOD or even streaming.
This race is boring lmao. I missed the Parasite one.
This race is boring lmao. I missed the Parasite one.
The one where the four acting performances swept ? (Two of them undeserved, Dern and Pitt) No, thank you.
This year we have 3 unpredictable races in Actor, Actress and Supporting Actor, with Picture unpredictable as well.
This race is boring lmao. I missed the Parasite one.
While 1917 was sweeping left and right that season also became a bore. But ofc had a lovely ending.
Belfast’s snub at set decorator’s guild is interesting. TPOTD got in. Again, I’m not saying Belfast can’t or won’t win BP, but it keeps on showing weakness…
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