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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 26)

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    Bohemian Bovine
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    Jan 20th, 2021
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    #1204735222

    how are the french dispatch’s chances at picture and director?

    Hmm…

    Kent Adams is right about Wes Anderson for director. Wes Anderson didn’t even make the BAFTA longlist for director, and European audiences are probably much more appreciative of the film’s dry humor and Francophilia.

    Honestly, his chances for a director nom died at Cannes when people first said it wasn’t as good as The Grand Budapest Hotel.

     

    Picture, on the other hand, might be worth seriously considering for that 9th or 10th spot.

    The screenplay will probably get make BAFTA and WGA, and unless the Academy is feeling “been there, done that”, the score and production design are also likely to be nominated…

    Screenplay + techs is a decent avenue for a picture nom.

     

    It’s still a longshot, but The French Dispatch should be higher in the prediction center than something like Nightmare Alley is.

    That’s my two cents.

     

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    wilfredpickles
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    #1204735232

    The thing that intrigues me about Being the Ricardos in BP (I’m not convinced it’ll get nominated yet, but could easily see it making PGA) is the Amazon of it all.

    I can’t remember how they’re doing for total BP nominations, but I think going back to 10 slots will be a key test for whether they’re at a similar stage to Netflix, i.e. essentially guaranteeing that at least one film per year makes the cut by virtue of visibility and outspending the studios. Apple will soon be able to say the same thing.

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    Rachel615
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    #1204735252

    I remember that last year Vinterberg had interviews with Sofia Coppola and Guillermo del Toro. These little random things can demonstrate support from the Director’s branch. Also Hamaguchi seems pretty safe for BAFTA. Things are looking good for him.

    I think we shouldn’t underestimate how common it is for directors, especially ones who are former nominees, to interview other directors who are potential nominees.  It’s done ALL THE TIME. This year alone, on FYC sites or YouTube or podcast sites, you can watch videos or listen to recordings of Christopher Nolan and (separately) Florian Zeller interviewing Kenneth Branagh; of Damien Chazelle interviewing Steven Spielberg; of Guillermo del Toro interviewing Denis Villeneuve; of Barry Jenkins interviewing Adam McKay; of Sofia Coppola interviewing Jane Campion; of Spike Lee interviewing Reinaldo Marcus Green; of David O. Russell interviewing Aaron Sorkin; of Spike Jonze interviewing Mike Mills; of Rebecca Miller interviewing Pablo Larrain; of Emerald Fennell (separately) interviewing Sian Heder, Edgar Wright and Maggie Gyllenhaal; etc., etc., etc.  I wouldn’t assume that being interviewed by a previously nominated director indicates significant support from the Directors’ branch.

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    Lucas
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    Jun 24th, 2020
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    #1204735268

    ^^ Oh c’mon, all those people are on the front of the Oscar conversation/campaign. Some of them are locked for a nomination this year, are previous winners/nominees, or have big films in contention.

    Of course an interview doesn’t mean anything per se, but we are talking about people running from VERY behind (a foreign language movie is already a big barrier for the industry)

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    Hawk
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    #1204735271

    The last 2-3 spots are very iffy for me. I thought for sure Tick, Tick, Boom… was going to make it in a month ago, but now it’s feeling like it might have peaked too early? Macbeth is also surging in a big way right now, but we won’t really know by how much until we get the final BAFTA noms. HoG also looks like it might have a lot international support that could get it in, but again we won’t know for sure until the BAFTAs. Then there’s also Drive My Car, Being the Ricardos, and The Lost Daughter which all seem like they could also swoop in and grab spot #10.

    Right now my predictions are (by likelihood of nomination):
    Very Strong Contenders:
    1- The Power of the Dog
    2- West Side Story
    3- Belfast
    4- Dune
    Strong Contenders:
    5- Don’t Look Up
    6- CODA
    7- Licorice Pizza
    8- King Richard
    Contenders:
    9- The Tragedy of Macbeth
    10- House of Gucci
    11- Tick, Tick… Boom
    Looking to Surprise:
    12- Drive My Car
    13- Being the Ricardos
    14- The Lost Daughter

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    Zuranthium
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    #1204735283

    It’s still a longshot, but The French Dispatch should be higher in the prediction center than something like Nightmare Alley is.

    The delusion.

    Especially this example when Nightmare Alley is the #1 film of Searchlight this season and French Dispatch is from the same company.

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    a spoonful of sugar
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    #1204735306

    Sony Pictures Classics and Searchlight still emphasize theaters with a longer window, but almost every other distributor followed Focus Features’ lead of three weekends before PVOD (the company’s “Belfast” waited four). In recent months, “The Card Counter,” “The Green Knight,” and “Spencer” have been among those to make top 10 appearances on some VOD charts.

    For many other acclaimed films, that was not the case. “The Souvenir: Part II” and “C’mon C’mon” (A24), “Bergman Island” (IFC), and “Mass” (Bleecker Street) all failed to see elevated results. “Belfast,” despite its Oscar frontrunner status, hasn’t made any top ten.

    From IndieWire.

    Honestly surprised that the “crowdpleaser” Belfast has never been top 10 in VOD anywhere?

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    Bohemian Bovine
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    #1204735316

    The delusion. Especially this example when Nightmare Alley is the #1 film of Searchlight this season and French Dispatch is from the same company.

    I respectfully disagree.

    Let’s be real: Both Searchlight films were flops, but The French Dispatch much less so than Nightmare Alley.

    TFD made $16 million (domestic) against a $25 mil budget, but NA has barely made over $9 million against a $60 million budget.
    At $43 mil worldwide, The French Dispatch has at least recuperated its cost.

    Maybe Nightmare Alley will be a huge success in the UK when it releases this Friday. If it flops there like it did in America, then I don’t think you will be able to make the claim it’s Searchlight’s main contender anymore.

    I don’t think it ultimately matters and neither are going to make it in, but let’s try to keep an open mind around here.

     

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    Zuranthium
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    #1204735345

    Why are you talking about box office numbers? That’s been irrelevant the past couple years.

    Nightmare Alley is absolutely Searchlight’s top contender and its value artistically is what matters. The care put into every single shot and design detail, the masterful acting, the gaze into the deep abyss of the soul, the way we see how people generally don’t stop what they are doing when they’re getting rich, which is why the world is the way it is.

    It has been consistently nominated in top 10 lists, and at SAG. Meanwhile, French Dispatch has constantly been missing, and basically nobody considers it to be Anderson’s best. Whereas there are a good amount of people who do think Nightmare Alley is Guillermo del Toro’s best, particularly the directing.

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    #1204735371

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    Stefania
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    LLLhawks
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    Dec 28th, 2018
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    #1204735491

    Screw it. Part 26 of this forum.

    Encanto can be the 10th nominee. All its songs are in Billboard. Lol.

    I just love movies. And awards.

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    Marcus.H
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    Oct 21st, 2017
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    #1204735502

    Encanto can be the 10th nominee. All its songs are in Billboard. Lol.

    NO. NOT HAPPENING.

    The songs are catchy tho. I can’t shake “We don’t talk about Bruno” out of my head. Help…

    Coen-Lynch-Fellini

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    String Cheese Theory
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    Aug 16th, 2020
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    #1204735519

    how are the french dispatch’s chances at picture and director?

    It got eleven mentions in the BAFTA longlists including:

    • Best Film
    • Original Screenplay
    • Supporting Actor
    • Cinematography
    • Costume Design
    • Editing
    • Makeup and Hair
    • Original Score
    • Production Design
    • Special Visual Effects
    • Sound

    Which means people clearly saw it, clearly liked it, but hate Wes Anderson.

    Bill Hader and Barry in everything (2 babka)
    The Great - Elle Fanning, Nicholas Hoult and comedy writing and directing

    Severance in drama series, writing, Adam Scott for best actor, Ben Stiller for drama directing, and the whole cast in supporting.

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    The Queen
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    Jan 12th, 2021
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    #1204735566

    This site is so hilarious to me. They say the four ATL categories that are still up in the air are BP, BD, Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor — in three out of four of which TPOTD is the presumed frontrunner. How is BD less locked than, say, actor? I know they’re Will Smith stans and Dog haters, but WTF. The bias from them is so real. I hope TPOTD wins everything, just so their heads can explode.

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