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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 26)

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    #1204736327

    The Belfast campaign needs to send NBP a check, they’ve been stanning for it all season. They almost all predicted it for BP at GG and are still sticking by it.

    Now they are arguing it’s strong in “predictions” ie. not noms or wins and there are somehow “secret” admirers.

    Kodi wasn’t even in their top 10 until recently, they have no idea.

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    Richie Rich
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    #1204736442

    Am I the only one who doesn’t understand why Kodi Smit-McPhee is the frontrunner for Best Supporting Actor?

    I liked TPOTD but I will admit that I’m biased against it but I’m not dumb and I can totally see it winning in many categories. But never once while I was watching the movie did I think “someone give this kid an Oscar!”. And I’m crazy or what?

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    Richie Rich
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    #1204736450

    And also. I’m I the only one who is over this awards season? The 2022 Oscar bait films seem more interesting. And hopefully they might actually live up to their box office potential this time around. My prediction is that it will be down to She Said or Babylon for the Best Picture win.

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    #1204736452
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    OscarWatcher1971
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    #1204736570

    It’s an understated performance not typical Oscar bait, but so glad it is getting recognised.

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    Arman Saxena
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    #1204736583

    “International” in the Academy mainly means European. Why would they champion a 3-hour Japanese slog? Drive My Car is not Parasite, and Hamaguchi is not Kurosawa. For most Academy members who even bother to watch, Drive My Car will be the only thing of his they’ve seen. I don’t see him being in the club, and the movie has hardly any visual flair, so I doubt enough voters are super excited over this. Look at the Cannes result, with a panel full of Academy members. There were at least 4 other films they liked more, and that’s just from the small Cannes pool.

    It’s definitely more subtle than most highly-acclaimed international features, but a film with this shot definitely has visual flair.

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    Zuranthium
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    #1204736690

    That does not show visual flair. A typical mid-close shot, with some blue light on one side of the face. Like, what. If that’s supposed to be the highlight in a 3 hour movie, you’re only proving my point. There are a few shots I would choose as better than that one, but on the whole the movie is quite plain looking and does not have complex lighting or framing or editing or camera movement.

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    SaulAtreides
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    #1204736714

    Am I the only one who doesn’t understand why Kodi Smit-McPhee is the frontrunner for Best Supporting Actor?

    I liked TPOTD but I will admit that I’m biased against it but I’m not dumb and I can totally see it winning in many categories. But never once while I was watching the movie did I think “someone give this kid an Oscar!”. And I’m crazy or what?

    It’s a good character and he emodied it well. I’m generally pretty cold on TPotD, but I’d be fine with him winning. Not every winner needs to cry or scream and shout.

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    #1204736761
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    MD
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    #1204736783

    It would be such an uninspired and lazy win.

    Just shut up already, you annoying troll.

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    #1204736819

    For what it’s worth, the Oscar Squad at Awards Daily have shifted TPOTD above Belfast for BP for the first time.

    They actually have it (improbably) winning 7- Picture, Director, Actor, supporting actor, adapted screenplay, cinematography, editing.

    Oscar Squad Returns and SAG Shakes Things Up

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    federico rubachin
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    #1204736884

    For what it’s worth, the Oscar Squad at Awards Daily have shifted TPOTD above Belfast for BP for the first time.

    They actually have it (improbably) winning 7- Picture, Director, Actor, supporting actor, adapted screenplay, cinematography, editing.

    https://www.awardsdaily.com/2022/01/18/oscar-squad-returns-and-sag-shakes-things-up/embed/#?secret=LoNufZ5S2J

    and in the comments claudiu says that by stats belfast can win only if wins the DGA

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    Natalegend
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    #1204737038

    I don’t know what to do about Licorice Pizza. I feel like it’s predictions for nominations are very weird. It feels too few for a film that was championed as a Best Picture contender. Beyond Best Picture and Original Screenplay, is the film actually going to get nominated for anything? Because it feels like it’s on the fringe of Director, Actress, Supporting Actor and Editing. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the film get these nominations but it also wouldn’t surprise me to see it not be nominated for them either. It just feels weird for that to be happening with a film that is considered to be a contender the way Licorice Pizza has been.

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    #1204737048

    0 SAG noms? It’s dead as a doornail. And I love PTA. Should get into OS which will give Belfast a run for its money. PTA’s overdue status might overcome the film’s negatives.

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    JV
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    #1204737059

    0 SAG noms? It’s dead as a doornail. And I love PTA. Should get into OS which will give Belfast a run for its money. PTA’s overdue status might overcome the film’s negatives.

    Bradley Cooper got nominated.

    I don’t know what to do about Licorice Pizza. I feel like it’s predictions for nominations are very weird. It feels too few for a film that was championed as a Best Picture contender. Beyond Best Picture and Original Screenplay, is the film actually going to get nominated for anything? Because it feels like it’s on the fringe of Director, Actress, Supporting Actor and Editing. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the film get these nominations but it also wouldn’t surprise me to see it not be nominated for them either. It just feels weird for that to be happening with a film that is considered to be a contender the way Licorice Pizza has been.

    Alana Haim is not getting nominated.

    Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Costume Design and Editing is what I have right now. PTA is very shaky on Director and I could easily BOTH PTA and Branagh getting snubbed in favor of Hamaguchi and Joel Coen.

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