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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 27)

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    Taytay129
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    Oct 12th, 2021
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    #1204757740

    Y’all really think balfast is gonna win? With what though?

    It ain’t getting director because it’s gotta take down Campion, Spielberg and Denis which ain’t happening.

    It ain’t taking editing because Dune’s already got it in the bag with TPOTD and WSS behind it.

    It ain’t winning supporting actor because ya got kodi vs Kotsur plus Hinds did shit all and idek if balfe even gets nominated

    the only thing it’s got is OG screenplay and it’s up against an overdue PTA who’s looking pretty strong and the academy kinda really likes his movies.

    The only way it could is if it pulled a spotlight  but spotlight actually had a message and meant something 😂

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    AmnistY21
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    #1204757742

    had some very touching moments and would be a much more deserving win than Dog would be.

    That stagey Roma knock off is going home empty handed. LP is winning WGA and the Oscar.

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    Iamelle
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    Dec 18th, 2018
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    #1204757900

    Y’all really think balfast is gonna win? With what though? It ain’t getting director because it’s gotta take down Campion, Spielberg and Denis which ain’t happening. It ain’t taking editing because Dune’s already got it in the bag with TPOTD and WSS behind it. It ain’t winning supporting actor because ya got kodi vs Kotsur plus Hinds did shit all and idek if balfe even gets nominated the only thing it’s got is OG screenplay and it’s up against an overdue PTA who’s looking pretty strong and the academy kinda really likes his movies. The only way it could is if it pulled a spotlight but spotlight actually had a message and meant something 😂

     

    Exactly. Sometimes I’m like “Am I missing something here?” Cause Belfast is not a favorite in literally any category. People talking about Spotlight like the movie wasn’t a favorite already in screenplay, It won 30 awards, and 27 in BP.

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    Sep 24th, 2021
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    #1204757937

    And are people really ignoring that Belfast lost BP at GG & AACTA to TPOTD & has won very little since the TIFF audience award???

    TPOTD showed up and 2 more guilds than Belfast, to all that said TPOTD was just a critics thing.

    LP’s performance at the guilds esp DGA literally threatens the only other Oscar Belfast could win, original screenplay.

    After bold choices like Moonlight, Shape of Water, Parasite & Nomadland, AMPAS are going to return to a nice little black & white family film? I can’t see it.

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    String Cheese Theory
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    #1204758053

    And are people really ignoring that Belfast lost BP at GG & AACTA to TPOTD & has won very little since the TIFF audience award??? TPOTD showed up and 2 more guilds than Belfast, to all that said TPOTD was just a critics thing. LP’s performance at the guilds esp DGA literally threatens the only other Oscar Belfast could win, original screenplay. After bold choices like Moonlight, Shape of Water, Parasite & Nomadland, AMPAS are going to return to a nice little black & white family film? I can’t see it.

    The way I cringe when Americans discuss Belfast.

    Edit: I can see from your forum activity that you’re unlikely to be American because of some of your spelling. Regardless, your obsessive loathing for Belfast is like, whoa friend. Belfast being a good film in many eyes doesn’t make The Power of the Dog any less good. Two things can be true. It’s very juvenile to see-saw power as an adult – “for me to go up, others must go down.” Pretty sure I learned that in grade 5. They’re both very good films, both directed and written well, both look lovely and both tackle very serious subject matter. I think you’re leaning too hard into Phil as a character by being kind of a cunt. In fact many could sledge POTD by saying it’s so popular solely because of the homoeroticism, which makes its stans kinda basic (not me sir, I don’t say that, but lots of others do). Both films have flaws, both are also wonderful. Stanning the way you do is just so fkn creepy mate.

    Bill Hader and Barry in everything (2 babka)
    The Great - Elle Fanning, Nicholas Hoult and comedy writing and directing

    Severance in drama series, writing, Adam Scott for best actor, Ben Stiller for drama directing, and the whole cast in supporting.

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    Eden
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    #1204758087

    Since Belfast isn’t the strong frontrunner some thought it was and The Power of the Dog has the Netflix dark cloud over it, why Licorice Pizza isn’t considered a (stronger) frontrunner to win BP?

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    belfastan
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    Nov 14th, 2021
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    #1204758092

    The way I cringe when Americans discuss Belfast.


    <p style=”text-align: left;”>This. Way to dismiss a story set against the backdrop of a country’s 30 year civil war that’s resonated with so many – especially immigrants – as a “little family film.” It’s honestly embarrassing, and I’m an American.</p>

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    Luca Giliberti
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    #1204758106

    Since Belfast isn’t the strong frontrunner some thought it was and The Power of the Dog has the Netflix dark cloud over it, why Licorice Pizza isn’t considered a (stronger) frontrunner to win BP?

    I would think the preferential ballot is Licorice Pizza’s biggest enemy. There are people that absolutely LOVE it and people that absolutely HATE it. From the reactions I have seen, there isn’t a lot of in between. I think it’s a movie that’s made for a very specific crowd of people. Then add that it’s been hit by a number of controversies, the reports of people walking out of screenings and showings and the prediction that its ceiling right now is one win max.

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    Lucas
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    #1204758109

    Since Belfast isn’t the strong frontrunner some thought it was and The Power of the Dog has the Netflix dark cloud over it, why Licorice Pizza isn’t considered a (stronger) frontrunner to win BP?

    Licorice Pizza needs Editing to be in the winning conversation. Now it’s probably 6th in that category. We’ll see if it gets the BAFTA nomination there

    But yeah, the Academy nowadays tend to give BP to “important films”. They haven’t rewarded a light romantic comedy in a really long time…

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    M
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    Sep 27th, 2017
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    #1204758160

    Yea I don’t see Licorice Pizza reaching the 50% threshold for a win.

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    Manav
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    #1204758163

    I would think the preferential ballot is Licorice Pizza’s biggest enemy. There are people that absolutely LOVE it and people that absolutely HATE it. From the reactions I have seen, there isn’t a lot of in between. I think it’s a movie that’s made for a very specific crowd of people. Then add that it’s been hit by a number of controversies, the reports of people walking out of screenings and showings and the prediction that its ceiling right now is one win max.

    Also the fact that many people are not comfortable with the age gap and that the film doesn’t have a clear resonant message, something which the academy looks forward to in their choices for Best Picture.

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    Stefania
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    #1204758171

    I was thinking yesterday that if the last 2 spots end up being “Being the Ricardos” and “Tick Tick Boom” there will be very few artsy or auteur picks, compared to last year for example. Really only TPOTD and LP, with Dune and WSS as a buffer zone and then a lot of more “crowd-pleasing” movies.

    Do you think that it might help the preferential ballot for those two? I kind of do, because people who like auteur-driven, thought-provoking movies don’t have many choices and they will have to put them at #1 or maximum #2, whereas if this year some of last year’s artsy movies were available – like “Promising Young Woman”, “Minari”or “Nomadland” – then those few “of the same kind” might end up having more #3, #4 and #5 spots. Does it make sense?

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    kamila
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    Dec 6th, 2021
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    #1204758211

    Since Belfast isn’t the strong frontrunner some thought it was and The Power of the Dog has the Netflix dark cloud over it, why Licorice Pizza isn’t considered a (stronger) frontrunner to win BP?

    Netflix can’t really have a dark cloud over it when the majority of BP contenders were streamers in some form and Netflix will probably have 3 BP nominees.

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    NevadaR
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    Jan 13th, 2018
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    #1204758215

    I was thinking yesterday that if the last 2 spots end up being “Being the Ricardos” and “Tick Tick Boom” there will be very few artsy or auteur picks, compared to last year for example. Really only TPOTD and LP, with Dune and WSS as a buffer zone and then a lot of more “crowd-pleasing” movies. Do you think that it might help the preferential ballot for those two? I kind of do, because people who like auteur-driven, thought-provoking movies don’t have many choices and they will have to put them at #1 or maximum #2, whereas if this year some of last year’s artsy movies were available – like “Promising Young Woman”, “Minari”or “Nomadland” – then those few “of the same kind” might end up having more #3, #4 and #5 spots. Does it make sense?

    It does make sense. For example I prefer auteur films so as a voter I would definitely put POTD and Licorice Pizza at #1 and #2. Then Dune and WSS in third and fourth place. And after that I would struggle and be in a lot of pain.

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    Manav
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    Dec 21st, 2019
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    #1204758219

    The Netflix bias has seemingly gone away from the Television Academy with the victories of The Queen’s Gambit and The Crown. What’s intriguing is whether AMPAS shared the same view

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