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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 27)

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    #1204755177

    Summary from the guilds: TPOTD & Belfast hit all the guilds they needed to.

    Belfast got SAG ensemble but missed 2 supporting slots, TPOTD missed ensemble but got 3 actors in and led noms. TPOTD got set decorators & CAS which Belfast missed & both missed ADG & CDG. Both ineligible for WGA.

    AACTA International gave Picture to TPOTD but it’s unclear how many members vote & their overlap with AMPAS if any.

    Post-guilds & pre-BAFTA, neither film has done better with the guilds. It’s still a 2-horse race, TPOTD higher number of guilds but Belfast has the SAG ensemble.

    Didn’t mention WSS as it missed SAG ensemble, only got 1 SAG nod & missed ACS & Eddie. It’s dead.

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    The Northman
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    Nov 10th, 2021
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    #1204755192

    So, what films are for slots 9-10?

    We can agree that:

    TPOTD/WSS/Belfast/Licorice Pizza/Dune/Don’t Look Up/King Richard/CODA

    are the locks

    Then we have

    Tick Tick Boom, Being The Ricardos, Tragedy of MacBeth, House of Gucci

    We can safely say Spider-Man is done and NTTD too, although the later had great showing in Longlists of Oscars.

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    JV
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    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1204755194

    https://mobile.twitter.com/awards_watch/status/1486825236012015622

    Lol, someone tell him that Chicago 7, Jojo Rabbit, A Star is Born, The Big Short, Lady Bird, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri, The Descendants, The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood all had those noms.

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    federico rubachin
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    #1204755203

    Erik Anderson
    @awards_watch
    If you’re looking at this as your Oscar five remember that there hasn’t been a year without a first-time Best Director nominee since 1950

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    federico rubachin
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    Jan 22nd, 2019
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    #1204755207

    Tick Tick Boom, Being The Ricardos, Tragedy of MacBeth, House of Gucci 

    and drive my car and nightmare alley

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    #1204755215

    The amount of campaigning that Awards Watch & Next Best Picture are doing for Belfast- they should just be on the pay roll.

    They never talk about it’s misses or vulnerability.

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    JV
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    #1204755222

    People predicting SPIELBERG to get snubbed are freaking delusional. He’s the Scorsese (The Irishman) of this race. Lack of passion for the movie as whole to win anything but he’s undeniable of a nom.

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    wilfredpickles
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    #1204755226

    The thing that gives me pause about Hamaguchi in Director is that even though they hadn’t been nominated before, you could reasonably assume that the branch was familiar with some of Bong, Vinterberg and Pawilkowski’s previous work (from International Feature noms/wins in the past, or in Bong’s case some crossover success with English titles).

    He’s probably locked for BAFTA but that doesn’t necessarily mean much with the juries.

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    Qoslca
    Joined:
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    #1204755239

    So, what films are for slots 9-10? We can agree that: TPOTD/WSS/Belfast/Licorice Pizza/Dune/Don’t Look Up/King Richard/CODA are the locks Then we have Tick Tick Boom, Being The Ricardos, Tragedy of MacBeth, House of Gucci We can safely say Spider-Man is done and NTTD too, although the later had great showing in Longlists of Oscars.

    I have Being the Ricardos (because I’ve got 100/1 odds and I just feel strongly about it) and Tick… Tick… Boom. I chose the latter over Macbeth because I’m predicting Coen to be this year’s director nominee without a correlating Best Picture nomination.

    My username is an acronym of “Quiet On Set! Lights, Camera, Action.” 🎥

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    Nameizmann
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    #1204755247

    People predicting SPIELBERG to get snubbed are freaking delusional. He’s the Scorsese (The Irishman) of this race. Lack of passion for the movie as whole to win anything but he’s undeniable of a nom.

    Except WSS is actually missing noms left and right.

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    Dr. Manhattan
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    Dec 7th, 2015
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    #1204755254

    Does anyone know when the last time a nomination leader at the Oscars missed out on a Best Director nomination? It seems like this year’s nomination leader will be Dune and, in the past decade at least, every film that was a nomination leader got in for Directing.

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    JV
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    #1204755256

    Except WSS is actually missing noms left and right.

    So what ? The directors branch is composed by 500 people and they pick the nominees. They’re not members of these guilds.

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    Bassett
    Joined:
    Dec 21st, 2016
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    #1204755263

    Does anyone know when the last time a nomination leader at the Oscars missed out on a Best Director nomination? It seems like this year’s nomination leader will be Dune and, in the past decade at least, every film that was a nomination leader got in for Directing.

    Dreamgirls got 8 nominations (leader) and missed Picture and Director (despite PGA, DGA and SAG Ensemble noms)

    That was 15 years ago and I don’t think any movie did that since then

    Then again 2006 was a weird year because all BP frontrunners had a very low nominations tally

    FYC

    Best Actress - Pénélope Cruz, Olivia Colman

    Best Actor - Denzel Washington

    Best Supporting Actress - Aunjanue Ellis, Kathryn Hunter

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    Manav
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    #1204755265

    Updated Predictions

    Best Picture
    1. The Power Of The Dog
    2. Belfast
    3. Dune
    4. West Side Story
    5. Licorice Pizza
    6. CODA
    7. Don’t Look Up
    8. King Richard
    9. Tick, Tick…Boom!
    10. Being The Ricardos

    Best Director
    1. Jane Campion, The Power Of The Dog
    2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune
    3. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
    4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
    5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

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    silvestre
    Joined:
    Dec 9th, 2021
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    #1204755289

    The thing that gives me pause about Hamaguchi in Director is that even though they hadn’t been nominated before, you could reasonably assume that the branch was familiar with some of Bong, Vinterberg and Pawilkowski’s previous work (from International Feature noms/wins in the past, or in Bong’s case some crossover success with English titles). He’s probably locked for BAFTA but that doesn’t necessarily mean much with the juries.

    His early 2021 run with festival awards was uncanny (Silver Bear in Berlin + Jury and Screenplay in Cannes, two different films!), that was probably what got people to  pay attention to Drive My Car (alongside that NY win, of course). Asako I & II, his 2018 film, was also in contention for the Palme and was featured in the Cahiers list of that year.

    He certainly doesn’t have the status of a Bong or a Vinterberg in the US, but their peers — specially the non-american ones — probably watched one or two of his films. Cannes is always the best indicator for the directors branch surprises.

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