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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 27)

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    Zuranthium
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    #1204755297

    TPOTD got set decorators & CAS which Belfast missed

    Didn’t mention WSS as it missed SAG ensemble, only got 1 SAG nod & missed ACS & Eddie. It’s dead.

    Set decorator guild is irrelevant lol. Belfast missed CAS but got into the Effects/Foley category with the Sound Editors guild, which is the one that really matters there (POTD did not get in).

    It can be said both underperformed at SAG, but I would put the Ensemble category above anything else there. So, still a slight advantage to Belfast overall.

    West Side Story is not dead at all. The ACE miss is very strange but it might have been a screener issue, and even if it wasn’t, for some completely bizarre reason, we already saw Spotlight winning BP without ACE. Winning the Editing Oscar without an ACE nomination is a harder thing to achieve, but it happened multiple times in the 60’s.

    Here’s a curious stat for you – the 1961 West Side Story also missed with ACE…but went on to win the Editing Oscar.

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    kamila
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    #1204755304

    The only potential director spoilers I see are Hamaguchi, Coen, McKay, and (very far off) Gyllenhaal. Let’s see what BAFTA does. It isn’t great that DMC didn’t get into Best Film, but Hamaguchi’s chances are still good.

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    #1204755338

    Stop with the screener issue excuses for WSS.

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    M
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    Sep 27th, 2017
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    #1204755342

    Imagine if the Oscars do one thing right and give Dune best picture this year.

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    #1204755345

    Main obstacle is that it’s part 1.

    I also think it’s a tad confusing & lacks an emotional core.

    I imagine part 2 will win BP though.

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    The Northman
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    #1204755348

    Honestly, I have seen all these movies and I would vote for Westside Story or Drive My Car. I just found these two movies 🎥 perfect. I wouldn’t vote for The Power of Dog, I think it is good, but overhyped. Belfast is ok, but nothing ground-breaking. Dune is passable, Don’t Look Up is basic, King Richard is forgettable, Being The Ricardos and Tick Tick Boom are ok, definitely not win worthy.  Licorice Pizza so and so, The Tragedy of MacBeth is great but I guess not for all people.

     

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    Zuranthium
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    #1204755360

    Stop with the screener issue excuses for WSS.

    It’s not an excuse, it’s factually something that happens during award season, and has been an especially prevalent problem at SAG over the years. We know Disney bungled the screeners there this year; it stands to reason they also have in other places.

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    OscarWatcher1971
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    #1204755369

    Stop with the screeners excuses

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    Lucas
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    #1204755378

    I finally watched Licorice Pizza and now I’m actually scared of Don’t Look Up winning Screenplay.

    Because Pizza it’s not the type of movie that wins Screenplay: it doesn’t have a story, it doesn’t have a conflict or an “important topic”. Maybe they’ll just namecheck PTA, but now I’m really worried about it.

    Anyway, I loved Licorice Pizza. I totally got lost in the world, the characters, the performances, the vibes. Also it was funny as hell. And I was actually moved with the scene of Alana and the gay couple.

    Yes, the love story is controversial, but I think it was totally meant to be that way. Most PTA films are about finding love/family in unusual and unrequited places.

    It’s my personal pick for Best Picture, for now. (I haven’t seen Drive My Car yet)

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    Zuranthium
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    #1204755382

    Stop with the screeners excuses

    Just keep Not Looking Up, see where that gets you.

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    m_butterfly
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    #1204755390

    I loved Dune but still it is half a movie.

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    #1204755394
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    Babylonian
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    #1204755397

    Main obstacle is that it’s part 1. I also think it’s a tad confusing & lacks an emotional core. I imagine part 2 will win BP though.

    It’ll be the first time since the Godfather that a first and second installment win Best Picture.

    FYC:

    Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category

    Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga for Best Original Song

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    Zuranthium
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    #1204755413

    It was understandable for the SAG underperformance, not so much for missing very important guilds later on.

    It’s understandable anywhere. If you don’t have screeners you’re probably not getting nominated. That’s simply how the game works. Especially in this age of covid when people are staying home more.

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    Bassett
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    Dec 21st, 2016
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    #1204755419

    Imagine if the Oscars do one thing right and give Dune best picture this year.

    It’s my personal favorite of the lineup but there’s too many hurdles

    It’s the Mad Max of the year

    FYC

    Best Actress - Pénélope Cruz, Olivia Colman

    Best Actor - Denzel Washington

    Best Supporting Actress - Aunjanue Ellis, Kathryn Hunter

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