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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 28)

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    Zuranthium
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    #1204793022

    LOL, so clueless. Nightmare Alley has big supporters in the Academy and was always getting nominated. Films that intelligent, well acted, and exquisitely crafted are not going to miss, unless they have no campaign. Ya’ll definitely tried it saying it would be nominated for nothing but production design, but apparently the delusion continues.

    News of the World has nothing to do with Nightmare Alley whatsoever.

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    crabbie
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    #1204793026

    No film has won 4 Oscars more than 4 Oscars without a Best Director nomination since 1952.

    Sound and Visual Effects are locked. Editing may as well be locked next because of the editing/sound stat. Score and Production Design seem to be the most tossed up. I think score is Hans to lose so Dune might just lose production design to Nightmare Alley. 

    The directing snub puts Dune’s chances in cinematography out of question. The Power of the Dog is the new favorite in the category thanks to the film’s surprise Production Design nomination. The directing frontrunner/cinematography stat is still strong. I think Ari Wegner will make history and be the first woman to win Best Cinematography.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    crabbie
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    #1204793029

    Films that intelligent, well acted, and exquisitely crafted are not going to miss, unless they have no campaign. Y

    Uh huh. That’s why Nightmare Alley has 0 acting, directing, and writing nominations. Face it. Nightmare Alley was a filler nomination in the 10th slot that had no passion and only got in because of Searchlight and the prestige. I understand you wouldn’t accept this though since your stanning propelled you to predict Cooper (LOL) in Best Actor and Blanchett in Supporting Actress.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    Zuranthium
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    #1204793050

    Uh huh. That’s why Nightmare Alley has 0 acting, directing, and writing nominations.

    It had a large amount of support in all of those categories regardless of getting the nominations or not.

    Superficially looking at nomination tallies will never tell the entire story. Ford v Ferrari got nominated in the prior voting system with only Editing and Sound, and Nightmare Alley would have been as well.

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    SN
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    #1204793054

    No film has won 4 Oscars without a Best Director nomination since 1952.

    You mean more than 4 Oscars, right?

    Matrix and Inception won 4 without a Directing nom.

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    crabbie
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    #1204793056

    You mean more than 4 Oscars, right? Matrix and Inception won 4 without a Directing nom.

    Yes. My bad. I meant more than 4.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    SN
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    #1204793110

    I can see Dune breaking this 69-year stat to win 5 Oscars, although I still think it’s more realistically getting 4. Its nominations performance already broke two massive stats: it’s the first film since The Color Purple to get more than 10 noms without Directing and the first film since Fellowship of the Ring to be nominated by every crafts branch.

    It’s more than locked in VFX.

    It’s the only Editing nominee besides TPOTD to be nominated in Sound, so it’s practically locked for Editing as well, since there’s no way TPOTD wins it. If the Editing/Sound trend that started with Gravity continues, it’s also taking Sound too.

    I also can’t see any other film winning Score for now.

    So, among the categories it’s competitive, I’d say Cinematography and Production Design are the ones it’s the least safe.

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    Zuranthium
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    #1204793125

    Visual Effects, Sound, Editing, Makeup would be an appropriate haul for Dune: Part 1.

    Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Score all deserve to go elsewhere.

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    crabbie
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    #1204793147

    I have Dune winning Visual Effects, Sound, Editing, and Score.

    I’m debating if Production Design is in its cards. Dune’s world building is similar to Blade Runner 2049 which lost to The Shape of Water. So it’s going to be another rematch this year for Del Toro or Villeneuve’s film taking production design.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    SN
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    #1204793164

    I have Dune winning Visual Effects, Sound, Editing, and Score.

    I’m debating if Production Design is in its cards. Dune’s world building is similar to Blade Runner 2049 which lost to The Shape of Water. So it’s going to be another rematch this year for Del Toro or Villeneuve’s film taking production design.

    Nightmare Alley could win Production Design, but I’m leaning towards West Side Story. Despite the film’s overall underperformance, it got Production Design nods everywhere.

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    crabbie
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    #1204793184

    Nightmare Alley could win Production Design, but I’m leaning towards West Side Story. Despite the film’s overall underperformance, it got Production Design nods everywhere.

    I don’t think NA has missed anywhere either (correct if I am wrong). For what it’s worth, it does have 5 critics awards against West Side Story which only has 1.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    alittle03
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    #1204793302

    And the early predictions thread was deleted again. The fact that this keeps happening *without explanation* is unprofessional now. Can we have an answer for why it’s deleted when we we’ve had an early predictions thread open by this stage of the race in previous years? The season is about to end in a little over the month and users want to keep track of news regarding the 2022-23 contenders.

    • FYC: Everything Everywhere All at Once in any and every single category, especially Best Picture, Michelle Yeoh in Actress, Stephanie Hsu in Supporting Actress, The Daniels in Director/Screenplay, Paul Rogers in Editing, and Son Lux in Score.

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    Someonelikeme
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    #1204793341

    Smooth sailing for Ms. Jane Campion!

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