Home Forums Movies Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 3)

Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 3)

CREATE A NEW TOPIC
CREATE A NEW POLL
Viewing 15 posts - 181 through 195 (of 514 total)
Created
1 year ago
Last Reply
12 months ago
513
( +2 hidden )
replies
48704
views
73
users
kaziz
59
Richie Rich
45
George Ehret
42
  • Profile picture
    RIDLEY SCOTT
    Joined:
    Dec 12th, 2020
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204389616

    [Accidentally posted on the wrong thread so posting it here now :)] I think with ten nominees, I think we’re going to possibly see greater overlap with Best Picture and the acting categories this year. Perhaps not as much as people are predicting but more. Do indulge me, I’m just thinking aloud. Last year most people were predicting Daniel Kaluuya alone from Judas and the Black Messiah, resulting in the unexpected nomination of Lakeith Stanfield. Till fairly late, it was argued that Steven Yeun could get snubbed for Minari, because Yuh-Jung Youn seemed the best and only contender. In the two years before, we saw nominations for Marina de Tavira, Yalitza Aparicio, Viggo Mortenson, Leslie Manville, and a few others that were by no means deemed sure things. All from Best Picture nominees. There are counter-examples, of course, like David Strathairn in Nomadland and only one nomination for The Trial of the Chicago 7, but simply going by coattails, most of the films that ended up getting nominated got at least two acting nominations, and it was highly expected for Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, to only got one each. Of course, there’s some films that aren’t realistic acting plays at all or get flatly rejected by the acting branch (1917, Dunkirk, Parasite, Black Panther) but most do. From the films I’m predicting for Best Picture, I think those films are Dune and/or The French Dispatch. It just stands to reason that if any film becomes a Best Picture contender, its actors will most likely get a boost, unless they’re supremely unlucky like Parasite was. I think perhaps right now people are possible over-predicting people from presumed Best Picture nominees (Jared Leto, Jesse Plemons, Frances McDormand, Ariana DeBose, Mark Rylance, Rachel Zegler, Corey Hawkins, Willem Dafoe, Rooney Mara are being name-checked quite a bit I feel, and essentially all of the Best Lead Actor slate is based on Best Picture).

    This is every year. Best Actor is based on Best Picture because usually every Best Picture nominee has 1 Best Actor nominee at the same time. I only remember 1 Best Actor nominee whitout strong Best Picture contenders: Denzel. Usually, Best Actor nominee need strong Best Picture contenders

    Profile picture
    pablozedd
    Joined:
    Jan 3rd, 2016
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204389649

    HOUSE OF GUCCI has 2 writers: 1 female and 1 male. New information

    That was known since the posters were released. But yeah I haven’t seen it being discussed here.

    Having another writer could impact on it’s quality, ofc. Most naysayers for this movie uses the argument of a first time writer (Robert Bentivegna).

    But now it has a more seasoned writer, Becky Johnston, Oscar nominated writer for The Prince of Tides (starred and directed by Streisand). But she’s also a Razzie nominee, lol. I don’t know what it could mean for House of Gucci.

    Profile picture
    Coltrane
    Joined:
    Jul 27th, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204389686

    This is every year. Best Actor is based on Best Picture because usually every Best Picture nominee has 1 Best Actor nominee at the same time. I only remember 1 Best Actor nominee whitout strong Best Picture contenders: Denzel. Usually, Best Actor nominee need strong Best Picture contenders

    I agree. I personally feel that Lead Actress is increasingly becoming similar. Not exactly the same obviously because films with Lead Actors are still taken more seriously, but increasingly, with the number of films fronted by women, I think it is a change occurring with Lead Actress as well. Of course, this is just my sense of how things are evolving.

    To take an example, 11 out of 20 of the last nominees from the last 4 years were from Best Picture nominees, and 3 of the 4 winners were in nominees or winners (Nomadland).

    By contrast, the 4 years before that yield 7 out of 20 nominees who were from Best Picture nominees. 2 of them won.

    This may be a limited sample, but I do sense a growing number of films with female leads making it into Best Picture. No?

    Profile picture
    sarahvsmovies
    Joined:
    Jun 14th, 2021
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204389747

    This is every year. Best Actor is based on Best Picture because usually every Best Picture nominee has 1 Best Actor nominee at the same time. I only remember 1 Best Actor nominee whitout strong Best Picture contenders: Denzel. Usually, Best Actor nominee need strong Best Picture contenders

    Dafoe for At Eternity’s Gate, but he has a built respect and narrative.

    Profile picture
    Jays
    Joined:
    Dec 15th, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204389793

    This may have already been answered multiple times but when is The Lost Daughter being added to the predictions center?

    Profile picture
    Marcus.H
    Joined:
    Oct 21st, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204389856

    I have Belfast on for a lot of stuff, but I’m keeping the possibility of it being a Hillbilly Elegy in the back of my mind considering the Director (tho I’m sure it’d be a better Judi Dench win than Shakespeare in Love 💀)

    Same. Belfast has potential, but rn the main reason I don’t predict it is because I saw the director’s name.

    Coen-Lynch-Fellini

    Profile picture
    Richie Rich
    Joined:
    Aug 6th, 2021
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204389875

    Im mixed on this. Yes. Branagh is a very hit or miss but most of his miss including his worst miss was a movie that has never been his forte (Artemis Fowl, Thor). Belfast seems to be none of that so I’ll give him the Benefit of the Doubt. Add that with acting talents like Judi Dench and Black and White Stuff. In fact, on paper it looks much safer Oscar bait than Last Night in Soho. BUT There are fair amount of reasons why some of us believe Last Night in Soho will be more prevalent than Belfast. First of all, why Focus submit Soho to two big festivals (Their OOC Venice premiere still looks Odd) whereas Belfast is only going to TIFF. Then, guys behind the Camera. Edgar Wright is completely beloved by his peers and the Buzz is real among guys like James Gunn, Christoph McQuarrie, Jordan Peele etc. Add that with Academy Award Nominee Krysty Wilson Cairns co write the Screenplay and Chung Chung Hoon as Cinematographer. Lastly. While the Academy isnt really fond towards horror, they are tend to be kinder towards Psycho-Horror/Thriller (See: Get Out, Black Swan). Much like Black Swan, Soho has the Distributor. Im not going to talk about the two ladies who lead the movie because im completely biased towards the two (I stan both lol)

    Fair enough. I Stan both of the lead actresses as well. After Jojo Rabbit and The Queen’s Gambit, I can watch them knit for 2 hours. Lol. But I try not to let emotions get to my predictions and use logic with my predictions. And Belfast feels more logical than Last Night in Soho. Though I’m still watching out for the latter and I’m by no means underestimating it.

    Profile picture
    Richie Rich
    Joined:
    Aug 6th, 2021
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204389881

    It would be Dench’s second Oscar because she only has one. And while I am predicting Belfast for a BP nomination and Dench is probably my current frontrunner, it’s far too early to be declaring locks.

    Oh. I don’t know why I thought she had two oscars. I must’ve thought she had won for Mrs. Brown. And I’m not declaring it a lock. I’m just saying that it seems like a lock to me.

    Profile picture
    Anirudh Arun
    Joined:
    Sep 28th, 2019
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204389913

    No musical is going be nominated. In the Heights is forgotten, WSS looks like crap and is a remake nobody asked for, Garfield’s musical is Netflix aka a studio that is juggling 50+ potential nominees. Yeah, not happening.

    Watch Dear Evan Hansen get that musical spot 😂😂 It’ll be hilarious.

    Profile picture
    Vicki Leekx
    Joined:
    Aug 3rd, 2019
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204389968

    You’re not alone love. I feel the same. This season hasn’t really started yet and I feel like I’ve seen everything. Tired of the race already.

    My thoughts exactly 💀

    My mind still hasn’t recovered from the drama…I’m willing to sit this one out if you are, send me your table numbers and I’ll order the first round of cocktails..

    FYC:

    Swinton, Weerasethakul Memoria, (Best Actress, Director)
    Efira, Rampling, Wilson Benedetta (Best Actress, Supporting Actress/Actor)
    Rapace Lamb (Best Actress)
    Stewart, Hawkins, Spall Spencer (Best Actress, Supporting Actress/Actor)

    Profile picture
    Arman Saxena
    Joined:
    Jul 24th, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204390197

    Guys. I feel like nobody is talking about Belfast. It is a very strong Oscar contender in my opinion. It is a passion project for Kenneth Branagh and is inspired by his childhood growing up in Belfast. Even though Branagh has a terrible track record and has only been nominated for Best Director once. I feel like he is very passionate about this movie and it is very Oscar baity enough for him not to deliver. This will follow the trend of directors making passion projects based on their childhood and getting major Oscar love. After Minari, Roma, Lady Bird, Moonlight (kinda). And coming-of-age films in general like Boyhood. And also I feel that Judi Dench is a lock for the Best Supporting Actress nomination and she can either win if they go the Minari grandmother route with her role and not the Glenn Close Hillbilly Elegy route, lol. And who else living is more deserving of a third acting Oscar than Judi Dench? Plus the movie is also a lock for Best Picture, Best Director and Best Original Screenplay but will probably only win Best Supporting Actress for Dench. Just my two cents.

    I agree there is a trend of directors making auteur pieces based on their childhood or coming of age in general. However, all of these directors have fairly unique styles and are respected as auteurs. Cuaron already had many highly acclaimed films under his belt, Gerwig was already a god in the mumblecore scene, Linklater, like Cuaron, had classics on his resume, and while both Chung and Jenkins were new names to most the fact that they were new, had the respected A24 behind them, and had unique styles helped them get the acclaim necessary to become contenders. Branagh is already a known name and at least from a critics and director’s branch standpoint he isn’t very respected. If you notice, all of the films you mentioned got nominations in Best Director and were very intimate with naturalistic performances. That’s another reason Belfast is being compared to Hillbilly Elegy, Howard is like Branagh in that they are not directors that have shown that they can capture the level of intimacy (or subtlety) that this story seems to require.

    Of course, Branagh doesn’t have to go fully into naturalism for the film to be good but I mean this is the man who made Artemis Fowl and that one Jack Ryan movie (both recently) and even though Linklater is inconsistent he hasn’t made any thing that bad. I just really have doubts. But then again Belfast could be focusing on the sociopolitical landscape of 1960s Britain in an insightful way and be like three hours and be Branagh’s magnum opus and if that’s the case it might win Best Picture lol. More realistically, it could be meh like Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and somehow get in (even though that at least had Tom Hanks and dealt with 9/11,both of which obviously added to the film’s standing)

    But I do agree that Dench is probably getting in unless its horrible. If its just so-so like I think its going to be then Dench can still get in if she has some great Oscar scenes.

    If there is a coming-of-age film that gets in this year it seems like it’ll probably be Soggy Bottom as PTA is obviously immensely respected and it just seems like a film that critics and the directors branch will love. A lot of people here are saying it could be another Inherent Vice but that seems unfair to specifically choose his worst film when the film (from what we know) is also as equally reminiscent of Boogie Nights (which would’ve gotten a BP nom with 10 nominees).

    Tl;dr: Branagh hasn’t shown he is capable of making Belfast the level of good that it needs to be, Dench might get nominated, and don’t underestimate Soggy Bottom.

    Profile picture
    Michael Windfeldt
    Joined:
    Nov 22nd, 2013
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204390363

    Which film could be this years Parasite? Is there an international film, which could get in for best picture?

    FYC:
    Best Picture: Licorice Pizza, West Side Story, Dune.

    Best Director: PTA, Denis Villeneuve

    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza.

    Best Actress: Alana Haim

    Profile picture
    Arman Saxena
    Joined:
    Jul 24th, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204390432

    Which film could be this years Parasite? Is there an international film, which could get in for best picture?

    Even though it didn’t get the reception I hoped it would (its at a 78 Metascore right now, A Hero could maybe get a BP nom if enough people see it. If Amazon campaigns it well and the film is seen by enough people, it definitely is the kind of thriller-tackling-social-issues that could get in. If it was an American film, it would be getting in. Basically, I think it can maybe get the 9th or 10th spot max.

    Madres Paralelas from Almodovar is also a contender and if it is near Talk to Her-level of acclaim, it will get in. If there were 10 nominees then, Talk to Her would’ve probably gotten a BP nod.

    The Hand of God could also be a contender. Again, if it is as good as The Great Beauty, Netflix being behind it would certify its place as a BP contender.

    EDIT: The Worst Person in the World is from Parasite distributor NEON but while it seems close to locked for a International Feature nod, it doesn’t really look like something that will get into BP even though I may be wrong because I haven’t seen it.

    Profile picture
    JV
    Joined:
    Dec 31st, 2019
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204390447

    Which film could be this years Parasite? Is there an international film, which could get in for best picture?

    Parasite was a hit at the box office, which is something people always forget. And it’s a pretty american Hollywood-ish movie.

    But my bets would be:
    The Worst Person in the World
    The Hand of God

    Profile picture
    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204390473

    My mind still hasn’t recovered from the drama…I’m willing to sit this one out if you are, send me your table numbers and I’ll order the first round of cocktails..

    I sat out the year of Parasite, incidentally, not because of the film but because it was just too tiresome watching all 4 acting winners sweep for performances I didn’t care for :/ Otherwise, I love Parasite. I am more excited this year but I get that the zero time we’ve had in the middle has made this seem a lot more tiresome. Technically we could all retire until the fall fests.

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

    Why are you reporting this post? (optional):
    Not now
Viewing 15 posts - 181 through 195 (of 514 total)

The topic ‘Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 3)’ is closed to new replies.

Similar Topics
Alexander - Aug 17, 2022
Movies
FreeJac... - Aug 16, 2022
Movies
RIDLEY ... - Aug 15, 2022
Movies