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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 3)

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    wolfali
    Joined:
    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204405302

    “Mass” is coming as it should. https://twitter.com/Massthemovie/status/1428444497587941376?s=20

    I thought this was going to be a trailer 🙁 …

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    George Ehret
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    Sep 3rd, 2019
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    #1204405323

    “Mass” is coming as it should. https://twitter.com/Massthemovie/status/1428444497587941376?s=20

    Gah, they need to start hyping this movie up. I will be very upset if it doesn’t get at least one nom

    FYC
    Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
    Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
    The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
    Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
    The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

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    George Ehret
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    #1204405326

    Am I the only one who’s starting to get worried about “Soggy Bottom”. I know we have a release date but awards season is just about starting and we don’t have any festival announcements, stills, or new information on it. We’ve even gotten some updates on “Nightmare Alley” (it’s been rated R and Del Toro confirmed it skipped festivals because it wasn’t ready) and “Don’t Look Up” (payday for Leo & JLaw and some test screening info), so this is probably or only big contender that has skipped festivals and we have such little info on.

    Sadly, I am as well. I’m getting very worried about this one

    FYC
    Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
    Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
    The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
    Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
    The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

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    Luca
    Joined:
    Jun 23rd, 2017
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    #1204405333

    Gah, they need to start hyping this movie up. I will be very upset if it doesn’t get at least one nom

    We’re getting Ann Dowd that nomination win.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204405350

    We’re getting Ann Dowd that nomination win.

    How many screeners are we gonna have to personally deliver to AMPAS ourselves to make this happen?

    (Tbh, I think Plimpton was better but this is category fraud so idk what to do)

    FYC
    Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
    Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
    The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
    Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
    The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

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    Luca
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    Jun 23rd, 2017
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    #1204405358

    How many screeners are we gonna have to personally deliver to AMPAS ourselves to make this happen? (Tbh, I think Plimpton was better but this is category fraud so idk what to do)

    We’ll send Aunt Lydia to their houses. That should do it. 😊

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    gorman
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    Dec 24th, 2017
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    #1204405378

    Sadly, I am as well. I’m getting very worried about this one

    Wasn’t Phantom Thread in a similar situation, though? I seem to remember there being very few details on it around about this point, and I also don’t think we had a title for it – I’m sure I remember it listed as Untitled PTA in the predictions centre. I also don’t think it hit any festivals. I know it didn’t exactly storm the Oscars but it still did well and, importantly, shocked a lot of people with its nomination performance. I think he has enough clout and excitement attached to his projects that we don’t really need to start sweating on his awards prospects this early.

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    kaziz
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    #1204405422

    Wasn’t Phantom Thread in a similar situation, though?

    Yep. It was. The good thing is Soggy Bottom—if it is similarly received—has PTA and the guy doesn’t need box office or whatever. On the other hand, it will probably have to beat out HoG/Being the Ricardos/The Tragedy of Macbeth/Tick Tick Boom and all the other late-breakers because… without festivals and especially without Daniel Day-Lewis’ star-power, PTA will need to out-buzz them and get raves. It can happen, but it really would be so much easier if it was playing at a fall festival or two. It’s not a marquee film like DLU/Nightmare Alley/Dune/West Side Story. Inherent Vice, which I think is lovely, also came out really darn late.

    This is also why I’m giving the edge to films like Mass, Last Night in SoHo, The Humans, The Hand of God, Passing, maybe The Lost Daughter—they’re going to have consistent buzz from when they premiere (or already did, like Mass).

    I have it in 10th place right now, because I dropped The French Dispatch and House of Gucci, but as of now, HoG probably looks like it could get in easier. And I think I’m dropping any acting predix from the film until further notice :/

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kingfan011
    Joined:
    Mar 11th, 2017
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    #1204405435

    Yep. It was. The good thing is Soggy Bottom—if it is similarly received—has PTA and the guy doesn’t need box office or whatever. On the other hand, it will probably have to beat out HoG/Being the Ricardos/The Tragedy of Macbeth/Tick Tick Boom and all the other late-breakers because… without festivals and especially without Daniel Day-Lewis’ star-power, PTA will need to out-buzz them and get raves. It can happen, but it really would be so much easier if it was playing at a fall festival or two. It’s not a marquee film like DLU/Nightmare Alley/Dune/West Side Story. Inherent Vice, which I think is lovely, also came out really darn late. This is also why I’m giving the edge to films like Mass, Last Night in SoHo, The Humans, The Hand of God, Passing, maybe The Lost Daughter—they’re going to have consistent buzz from when they premiere (or already did, like Mass). I have it in 10th place right now, because I dropped The French Dispatch and House of Gucci, but as of now, HoG probably looks like it could get in easier. And I think I’m dropping any acting predix from the film until further notice :/

     

    I keep seeing Phantom Thread being brought in comparison but I’m convinced if Thread was ready in time Focus would have put it into at least one festival. Since Soggy Bottom wrapped last year I just can’t imagine that its not finished yet and I would just think that MGM would try to convince Anderson to got a festival. It seems like some of them really wanted it

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    crabbie
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    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204405448

    I think Soggy Bottom will tank with a mostly unknown cast that will do poorly in the box office and MGM will prioritize House of Gucci much more.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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    Stank83
    Joined:
    Mar 8th, 2020
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    #1204405487

    Wasn’t Phantom Thread in a similar situation, though? I seem to remember there being very few details on it around about this point, and I also don’t think we had a title for it – I’m sure I remember it listed as Untitled PTA in the predictions centre. I also don’t think it hit any festivals. I know it didn’t exactly storm the Oscars but it still did well and, importantly, shocked a lot of people with its nomination performance. I think he has enough clout and excitement attached to his projects that we don’t really need to start sweating on his awards prospects this early.

    Phantom Thread could afford this because there was Daniel Day-Lewis in it and everyone knew that it was his final film. So it didn’t need further hype or festival buzz, it was obvious that everyone among critics, pundits, and award voters would have watched it.

    This one is an ensemble movie in the vein of Magnolia with PSH’s son as the lead, B. Safdie, and B.Cooper in a brief supporting role. 
    Who really cares about this if it’s not supported by an early festival buzz??
    It may risk ending up ignored by awards voters like Silence, because of this strategy.

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    FilmRoyalty
    Joined:
    Oct 5th, 2011
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    #1204405503

    Chloe Zhao is coming!

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    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204405518

    Phantom Thread could afford this because there was Daniel Day-Lewis in it and everyone knew that it was his final film.

    Yup this distinction is very important. This was Daniel Day-Lewis parting gift to the film industry. Adding on, the prestige and pedigree of Phantom Thread was unmatched as a British period drama with elaborate costume design and a haunting score featuring seasoned British actress, Vicky Kreps as well. I would not be surprised if Soggy Bottom leans towards PTA’s comedic tones of which is not necessarily Academy-friendly that were prominent in Boogie Nights and Punch-Drunk Love based on the film title and Hollywood subject matter. And yeah that cast is just full of unknown people even with a stacked cast like in The Master, PTA could still not get the film in Best Picture.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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    Diamond Tier
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    Aug 14th, 2020
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    #1204405660

    Eternals will probably earn high praise. But with the obvious bias some in Hollywood demonstrate towards Marvel/comic book films, I find it difficult believing it can receive a BP/Director nomination. Unless it becomes the cultural milestone Black Panther was.

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    methaddiction
    Joined:
    Aug 1st, 2017
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    #1204405662

    We Need To Get Real: Mass is sweeping

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