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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 3)

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    kaziz
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    #1204405682

    I keep seeing Phantom Thread being brought in comparison but I’m convinced if Thread was ready in time Focus would have put it into at least one festival. Since Soggy Bottom wrapped last year I just can’t imagine that its not finished yet and I would just think that MGM would try to convince Anderson to got a festival. It seems like some of them really wanted it

    Yes I think that’s true. It’s also true of Guillermo del Toro.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204405698

    I think that while stats are interesting guidelines what we need to take into consideration is that while things are maybe more ‘normal’ than last year, we are still in a pandemic and things are far from normal (so many festival contenders are holdovers from last year, for example) so predicting based on stats from the before times seems somewhat redundant.

    You’re right, but the falls fests started deciding & announced their lineups before the alarm about the delta variant, when things were decidedly looking up. For all intents and purposes, they were setting up as if it were just any other year. And if last year favored the “small” festival film, so if anything, sure the stat from before times may be wrong but it’s probably not going to trend towards more non-festival releases lol, it’ll be even fewer non-festival films (last year, only the two Netflix films abstained—because…Netflix. Which its obviously not doing this year).

    So if anything, the continuation of the pandemic makes it harder for films to get buzz without festivals unless they land on streaming asap. Probably won’t be as bad as last year obviously but we’ve been in the pandemic long enough for one Oscar cycle—we can at least learn from that, if not the 15-year stretch before it.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    gorman
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    Dec 24th, 2017
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    #1204406030

    Phantom Thread could afford this because there was Daniel Day-Lewis in it and everyone knew that it was his final film. So it didn’t need further hype or festival buzz, it was obvious that everyone among critics, pundits, and award voters would have watched it. This one is an ensemble movie in the vein of Magnolia with PSH’s son as the lead, B. Safdie, and B.Cooper in a brief supporting role. Who really cares about this if it’s not supported by an early festival buzz?? It may risk ending up ignored by awards voters like Silence, because of this strategy.

    Good points, and good comparison. Fingers crossed it turns out okay.

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    Luca
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    Jun 23rd, 2017
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    #1204406038

    We Need To Get Real: Mass is sweeping

    Let’s make it happen.

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