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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 31)

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    kamila
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    #1204846166

    More like Power of the Dog = Spotlight or Nomadland depending on if it can snag a below the line still

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    soundchaser
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    #1204846174

    When is the last time a film has only won picture and director at the Oscars? Seems weird to me. I think TPOTD will win three but which one: cinematography or screenplay?

    I still suspect it’s taking both for a total of 4.

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    crabbie
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    #1204846194

    “TPOTD losing a ton of awards it was predicted for actually demonstrates how strong it is” is a really bizarre take.

    It lost a ton of awards and still won Picture. It’s undeniable there.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    jjjmoss
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    #1204846196

    2 major awards at the Sags & the Baftas:

    3 Billboards = 2 major Oscars

    Traffic = 3 major Oscars

    Old Men, King’s Speech, American Beauty, Shakespeare in Love = 4 major Oscars

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    Cosmia
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    #1204846200

    There’s still a degree of uncertainty, but at this point there’s little to suggest a compelling alternative to TPOTD. If Dune ends up sweeping the technical categories (and I still expect Dog to sneak at least one in), Dog can still win with a Director-Picture combo, like how Spotlight won with Screenplay-Picture. CODA (the only realistic alternative) would have to pull off something truly unprecedented. It’s possible, but mOmEnTuM can’t be the only argument.

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    kamila
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    #1204846227

    BAFTA confirmed that Dune has a very sizable guild support. CODA can’t upset without that.

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    #1204846233
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    OscarWatcher1971
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    #1204846253

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    iWantTheGold
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    #1204846255

    Let’s see what PGA says, cause the CODA surge is undeniably real… but I’m still going with POTD for now.

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    ejaru1810
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    #1204846259

    Roma won at BAFTA and lost the Oscar. You sure it’s undeniable?

    Roma was a foreign language film with a completely unknown cast from a streaming service, Dog is more of a Nomadland kind of film.

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    soundchaser
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    #1204846262

    Roma won at BAFTA and lost the Oscar. You sure it’s undeniable?

    The winner that year also won at the Golden Globes and the PGA Awards. TPotD already has the first of those; if it wins both AND the BAFTA, what compelling alternative path is there?

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    jjjmoss
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    #1204846264

    picture bafta winners in the previous 7 years:

    Boyhood – lost pic/dir

    Revenant – lost pic

    La La Land – lost pic

    Billboards – lost pic/dir

    Roma – lost pic

    1917 – lost pic/dir

    Nomadland – won

     

    2001-2007, they only matched Return of the King.

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    Cosmia
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    #1204846274

    Right, but the direction they missed (with the exception of Roma/Green Book) was that they usually picked something more accessible and conventional than the Oscar winner.

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    Babylonian
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    #1204846284

    picture bafta winners in the previous 7 years: Boyhood – lost pic/dir Revenant – lost pic La La Land – lost pic Billboards – lost pic/dir Roma – lost pic 1917 – lost pic/dir Nomadland – won 2001-2007, they only matched Return of the King.

    Yep, I need to see POTD win on a preferential ballot before I predict it.

    FYC:

    Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category

    Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga for Best Original Song

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