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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 34)

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    kbc
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    #1204870621

    The fact that there really is a backlash over this Coda film is kind of disconcerting. Not sure i want to see it being crowned BP either, but the pans are overdone. And i think it’s not bad per se to have an inoffensive film that sheds light on this forgotten minority group winning BP. PotD is also destined to get lost in irrelevance once the season ends anyway so what diiference does it make? Had DUNE been frontrunner, it would have been more offensive…

    I do wonder. Had Dune Part One been a complete story, versus just a segment a la The Fellowship of the Ring, would it be our front-runner today, with a BD nom – on its way to a BD win – for Denis Villeneuve (that oversight is still a sore point.)

    FYC
    Best Picture: "Aftersun" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
    Best Director: Charlotte Wellls; Luca Guadagnino
    Best Actress: Frankie Corio; Taylor Russell
    Best Actor: Paul Mescal; Timothee Chalamet
    Best Supporting Actress: Chloe Sevigny
    Best Supporting Actor: Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
    Best Original Screenplay: Charlotte Wells
    Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

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    Go Yeoh!
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    Mood
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    Mar 20th, 2022
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    #1204870631

    Passing Thought: It’ll be endlessly discussed if (and i’m not predicting this) The Power of the Dog goes 0/12 because Jane Campion loses BD to Steven Spielberg, thus unseating Spielberg’s The Color Purple (as well as Herbert Ross‘s The Turning Point) as the “biggest loser” in Oscar history.

    It would be crazy if Dog went from front runner to biggest loser in Oscar history LMFAOOO but I think it’s going to get a couple of wins.

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    Donda
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    Jul 25th, 2021
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    #1204870633

    I do wonder. Had Dune Part One been a complete story, versus just a segment a la The Fellowship of the Ring, would it be our front-runner today, with a BD nom – on its way to a BD win – for Denis Villeneuve (that oversight is still a sore point.)

    I think a film like that has to be a cultural juggernaut in order to win big. There is a bias towards the genre and to overcome that, it needs to be undeniable. LOTR had been building up momentum since the 1st installement, so there really was a narrative to reward it.

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    Stefania
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    Feb 22nd, 2021
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    #1204870647

    I think that I’m going to switch to CODA winning best picture and be prepared to be very disappointed this year. We went from great winners last year and the year before (for the most part) to mediocrity that’s probably going to be rewarded across the board. I didn’t hate CODA before, but now the thought that this is going to win Best Picture over several more deserving movies nominated makes me actively dislike it.

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    HaimOnRye
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    #1204870649

    Drive My Car is the true BP winner in my heart

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    MD
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    Dec 25th, 2017
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    #1204870651

    It’s wrong to generalize the reception of the whole community on basis of a few reactions. Every community has individuals who will react differently to their representation. While she wasn’t a fan, I know a few who loved the film and how it normalized inclusion of deaf people as human beings with desires, self interests, empathy, warmth, and swag.

    Sure, but I feel like people are only focusing on the positives and trying to muffle the negative reactions from some deaf people. Their opinion matters too.

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    nevkm
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    #1204870658

    I think that I’m going to switch to CODA winning best picture and be prepared to be very disappointed this year. We went from great winners last year and the year before (for the most part) to mediocrity that’s probably going to be rewarded across the board. I didn’t hate CODA before, but now the thought that this is going to win Best Picture over several more deserving movies nominated makes me actively dislike it.

    Meh I’ll probably cave in too until Sunday. As someone who loved Sound of Metal gotta say I’m pretty disappointed but it is what it is.

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    Rishabh Chaturvedi
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    #1204870665

    Drive My Car is the true BP winner in my heart

    What pisses me the most about this particular season is that, if we REALLY are to break and go beyond 90 year old stats in awarding Best Picture and making a statement (which I’m honestly all in favour of because it ideally should never be about “precursors” and “stats” in the first place), it’s hugely disappointing that films like The Tree of Life, Amour, Room, Phantom Thread, The Favourite, The Father/Sound of Metal/Judas, and now Drive My Car, have not been the ones to actually achieve what had been the impossibile. Stats going all the way to the 1930s should have broken ages ago with a plethora of contenders that would’ve undoubtedly stood the test of time and been celebrated as among the very best. But alas, here we are.

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    Stefania
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    #1204870669

    Meh I’ll probably cave in too until Sunday. As someone who loved Sound of Metal gotta say I’m pretty disappointed but it is what it is.

    I liked “Minari” and “Promising Young Woman” more than “Nomadland” last year, but it was close. This year for me “CODA” is not close to being as great a movie as “The Power of the Dog” or “Dune” (or others in the list) that we are going to watch and discuss for years. Just give the best supporting actor award to Troy Kotsur and give the other awards to good cinema, instead of a feel-good film for Sunday afternoon TV… 😭

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    crabbie
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    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204870677

    What pisses me the most about this particular season is that, if we REALLY are to break and go beyond 90 year old stats in awarding Best Picture and making a statement (which I’m honestly all in favour of because it ideally should never be about “precursors” and “stats” in the first place), it’s hugely disappointing that films like The Tree of Life, Amour, Room, Phantom Thread, The Father, and now Drive My Car, are not the ones to actually achieve what had been the impossibile. Stats going all the way to the 1930s should have broken ages ago with a plethora of contenders that would’ve undoubtedly stood the test of time and been celebrated as among the very best. But alas, here we are.

    I have to agree. Stats are being broken for a movie that’s so inconsequential to the prowess of filmmaking. Mad Max: Fury Road should have won Best Picture; literally won 6 Oscars, but lost because of the snubs in acting and screenplay which only occurred because of sci-fi bias.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    wolfali
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    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204870709

    Whilst I do appreciate CODA‘s not as deserving as The Power of the Dog on the basis of filmmaking merit, I feel like the only person on this site who won’t mind if either film wins Best Picture lol.

    FYC: Better Call Saul and The Good Fight in all categories including Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

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    snowball
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    Nov 20th, 2021
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    #1204870711

    Those anonymous ballots all going for CODA and ignoring both POTD and Drive My Car says it all. The one saying Heder should have been nominated instead of Hamaguchi was the final nail in the coffin and I confess some part of me died when reading that. I’ll be shocked if anything else wins at this point.

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    kbc
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    #1204870716

    Whilst I do appreciate CODA‘s not as deserving as The Power of the Dog on the basis of filmmaking merit, I feel like the only person on this site who won’t mind if either film wins Best Picture lol.

    With Parallel Mothers (go Cruz!) and The Worst Person in the World (far superior to all 10 BP nominees, and two of only a handful of 2021 films – none BP nominees – i’ll be talking about for years to come) not in the running for the top prize, it’s now just about the drama of an upending, stats-ignoring awards race that compels me.

    FYC
    Best Picture: "Aftersun" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
    Best Director: Charlotte Wellls; Luca Guadagnino
    Best Actress: Frankie Corio; Taylor Russell
    Best Actor: Paul Mescal; Timothee Chalamet
    Best Supporting Actress: Chloe Sevigny
    Best Supporting Actor: Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
    Best Original Screenplay: Charlotte Wells
    Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

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    crabbie
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    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204870734

    Kind of curious how the directors branch will vote in Best Picture. Drive My Car, Belfast, Licorice Pizza, and West Side Story are not expected to take more than 1 Oscar, so the power of the directing branch could be placed on The Power of the Dog in key categories in Best Picture and Cinematography.  Not sure how large the directing branch is for this to make a difference if the entire branch votes for TPOTD in Picture as their #1. This could also signify a shift in Best Director being less valued as a prognosticator in Best Picture if CODA wins and certainly undermines the strength of the director branch in other above the line/below the line categories.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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