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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 7)

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204438193

    Well, that’s fine, but I want her to win a Best Director home this time. She could have been the first female director to win Oscars for The Piano, if not for the Schindler’s List.

    SO MUCH THIS. Campion being the first woman to get nominated twice & the second to win will solidify her legacy as one of the best living auteurs.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204438195

    Coming of age films seldom win Best Picture. Moonlight has a 99 on Metacritic. Good luck, Belfast.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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    skyes
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    Jan 24th, 2021
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    #1204438202

    The Power of the Dog is easily the Best Adapted Screenplay frontrunner. I would say Best Director frontrunner as well but Adapted Screenplay is stronger. Hope she wins both since she deserves a Beat Director Oscar.

    Jane CHAMPion 27 years later. SHE’S COMING.

    The way she’ll win Oscars for Adapted Screenplay and Director, on top of her Oscar for Original Screenplay.

    FYC, in all eligible categories:
    The Lost Daughter
    Passing
    The Power of the Dog

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    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204438209

    The way she’ll win Oscars for Adapted Screenplay and Director, on top of her Oscar for Original Screenplay.

    I cant think of my directors who have done this. This would be legendary.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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    Tick Tock
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    Jul 27th, 2021
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    #1204438213

    Belfast isn’t a frontrunner for me. It’s probably in, yes, but the fact that if people actually think Balfe can’t make it in actress — the film isn’t good enough. It should have at least ONE lead performance easily.

    Don’t compare it to Roma here. Imo Aparicio gave my 2nd favorite performance and I genuinely think the reasons she wasn’t a shoo-in for pundits was lots of biases: brand-new, in a foreign film, playing a muted character (but still having plenty “Oscar scenes”!)

    The much better comparisons here are Moonlight and Boyhood, neither of which got leading nominations. I know I know Boyhood didn’t win but it was definitely #2 so that’s not bad at all. Belfast is not the kind of ensemble that gets a lead nomination because it’s led by a child actor. Nobody really expected Ellar Coltrane to be nominated even when Boyhood was the frontrunner.

    I don’t think Belfast is the frontrunner but I do think it’s a contender. If AMPAS goes for more traditional bait this year, Belfast makes the most sense so it can’t be ruled out unless there is strong reason for it to be ruled out.

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204438218

    Question for everyone:
    Which of the winners for BP in the 21st century do you consider as being among the biggest cinematic masterpieces (of the 21st century)? Zero?

    Reason I ask is because for me it’s just Moonlight & Parasite. Most of my “masterpieces” never come close to the Oscars, but I think most of those that did get nominated, all but 2 lost.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    fvg627
    Joined:
    Sep 23rd, 2019
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    #1204438223

    Predicting only what’s been seen, I’m thinking Power of the Dog for picture and Dune for director.  Dune can’t win on a preferential ballot but I think Villeneuve will have the most #1 votes in director. The same way polarizing but technically marvelous films like Gravity, the Revenant and La La Land still pulled off the director win without winning picture.

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    Marcus.H
    Joined:
    Oct 21st, 2017
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    #1204438226

    I just checked TIFF lineup and it’s hard to imagine any film beating Belfast for People’s Choice award at this moment. Maybe Dune and TPOTD are possible, but I fear they will not win universal acclaim from general audience.

    All major contenders except TLD have now premiered at Venice/Telluride. It’s been an exciting weekend.

     

    Coen-Lynch-Fellini

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    kaziz
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    #1204438232

    The much better comparisons here are Moonlight and Boyhood, neither of which got leading nominations. I know I know Boyhood didn’t win but it was definitely #2 so that’s not bad at all. Belfast is not the kind of ensemble that gets a lead nomination because it’s led by a child actor. Nobody really expected Ellar Coltrane to be nominated even when Boyhood was the frontrunner.

    I don’t think Belfast is the frontrunner but I do think it’s a contender. If AMPAS goes for more traditional bait this year, Belfast makes the most sense so it can’t be ruled out unless there is strong reason for it to be ruled out.

    Okay but my whole point is for a frontrunner, not just a contender. I know it’s a contender, it’s almost definitely getting into BP.

    But the comparison to Moonlight & Boyhood doesn’t work for me either tbh. Balfe & Dornan are incredibly important, arguably between lead & supporting. Also — Belfast hasn’t made anybody a shoo-in, not even in supporting, unlike both Moonlight and Boyhood. We may as well say it’s Parasite.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    Tick Tock
    Joined:
    Jul 27th, 2021
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    #1204438234

    Predicting only what’s been seen, I’m thinking Power of the Dog for picture and Dune for director. Dune can’t win on a preferential ballot but I think Villeneuve will have the most #1 votes in director. The same way polarizing but technically marvelous films like Gravity, the Revenant and La La Land still pulled off the director win without winning picture.

    Gravity and La La Land got universal raves (96, 94 on Metacritic) and even won on the preferential ballot of the PGA. They were not polarizing at all. Revenant was more critically polarizing but it also won DGA, BAFTA, Globe and went into Oscar night as the frontrunner for BP.

    Unless Dune is a top 2 contender I don’t think those are good comparisons.

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    Tick Tock
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    Jul 27th, 2021
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    #1204438237

    Okay but my whole point is for a frontrunner, not just a contender. I know it’s a contender, it’s almost definitely getting into BP.

    A frontrunner or the frontrunner? Belfast isn’t the frontrunner (that is TPOTD at this point) but it is definitely a frontrunner.

    But the comparison to Moonlight & Boyhood doesn’t work for me either tbh. Balfe & Dornan are incredibly important, arguably between lead & supporting. Also — Belfast hasn’t made anybody a shoo-in, not even in supporting, unlike both Moonlight and Boyhood. We may as well say it’s Parasite.

    Well Arquette was also considered incredibly important and the lead by many people for Boyhood and many people called her supporting nomination a fraud. I think Boyhood is an excellent comparison in every way. Belfast may get a lead nominated but it’s definitely not expected even if it is the frontrunner because of the kind of ensemble it is. It’s not a sign of weakness to me.

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    kaziz
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    #1204438239

    I just checked TIFF lineup and it’s hard to imagine any film beating Belfast for People’s Choice award at this moment. Maybe Dune and TPOTD are possible, but I fear they will not win universal acclaim from general audience.

    You can laugh but, yes, I agree Belfast is a better bet but I think SoHo has a strong chance too. TIFF audiences aren’t exactly the general audience profile, and SoHo, unlike TPOTD, seems to more divisive with critics.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204438241

    I am more concerned for Belfast not getting its director in than the lead actors. Slightly unrelated but I think Pablo Larraín will follow a similar trajectory of Yorhos Lanthimos for The Favourite in Best Director. Both are auteurs who directed British period pieces struck with glamorous costume design and cinematography with the Best Actress frontrunner becoming the center of buzz at Venice. Their film is slightly more accessible than their previous work and is embraced at the Academy with the directors branch welcoming them a spot.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204438243

    A frontrunner or the frontrunner? Belfast isn’t the frontrunner (that is TPOTD at this point) but it is definitely a frontrunner.

    A frontrunner, like…..it can win BP as well, just like TPOTD. I don’t see it.

    And I feel like the argument you made for Boyhood illustrates my point? Arquette was an immediate shoo-in when Boyhood became a frontrunner. Nobody is a shoo-in with Belfast, and…yeah it should definitely have one! Ensembles win all the time but barring Parasite, they always have a shoo-in for the acting categories. Do you think Balfe in for supporting for sure?

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    Tick Tock
    Joined:
    Jul 27th, 2021
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    Posts:
    #1204438253

    A frontrunner, like…..it can win BP as well, just like TPOTD. I don’t see it.

    And I feel like the argument you made for Boyhood illustrates my point? Arquette was an immediate shoo-in when Boyhood became a frontrunner. Nobody is a shoo-in with Belfast, and…yeah it should definitely have one! Ensembles win all the time but barring Parasite, they always have a shoo-in for the acting categories. Do you think Balfe in for supporting for sure?

    This feels pretty revisionist to me. Arquette wasn’t a shoo in because we still weren’t sure where she would be campaigned this early in the season. Just like we’re not sure where Balfe will be campaigned this early in the season so it’s hard to say if she’s a shoo in or not.

    Also there are degrees of strength here. Belfast doesn’t look as strong as Boyhood did at this point of the year (because Boyhood was the frontrunner duh) so it stands to reason that Balfe won’t look as strong as Arquette. But that doesn’t mean Belfast can’t win because it’s a different year with different competition and awards season hasn’t even started. It’s hard to draw these conclusions so soon.

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