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Dune and Villeneuve are in but, IMO, he’s more competitive to win (exceptional craftmanship) than the movie (preferential ballot woes). The movie is part 1 and it feels like it (all reviews) and a reminder that FOTR didn’t win despite having McKellen in Supporting which made it a stronger player than Dune which won’t have acting nominations (no one is singled out in a way that even remotely suggests a possible nomination). So best case scenario is Director(win)/Picture split.
Another reminder – Peter Jackson also lost BD for his Part 1. I don’t foresee a BP/BD split of that kind this year. Now, how about Don’t Look Up/Campion? That’s possible. The Power of the Dog takes adapted screenplay + supporting actress and DLU takes original screenplsy? Plausible split.
I agree with kaziz about Gaga maybe not getting in (along with other contenders like Nicole Kidman). Kristen Stewart has received universal acclaim for Spencer. So far, the others actresses who premiered their films at Venice & Telluride got strong reviews but not ones matching the ones Kristen got.
Film Twitter and pundits were hyping Gaga as the front-runner and eventual winner non-stop for the past months, but now that films like Spencer, Parallel Mothers and The Lost Daughter have premiered, people have changed their predictions. I already said the category is a bloodbath in another thread, and that there will be snubs. And let’s not forget about Frances McDormand. Her movie is yet to premiere.
Another reminder – Peter Jackson also lost BD for his Part 1. I don’t foresee a BP/BD split of that kind this year. Now, how about Don’t Look Up/Campion? That’s possible. The Power of the Dog takes adapted screenplay + supporting actress and DLU takes original screenplsy? Plausible split.
Netflix will be very happy.
Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.
Honestly I think Campion could end up becoming the undeniable frontrunner of the season à la Cuaron. She’s well respected on an international level which will help her with an increasingly international academy, she’s arguably overdue but also the amount of passion for her work here seems to greatly outweigh that of her competitors who have screened thus far (aside from maybe Branagh). If she loses it will be to a late-breaker IMO.
FYC:
"The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")
I agree with kaziz about Gaga maybe not getting in (along with other contenders like Nicole Kidman). Kristen Stewart has received universal acclaim for Spencer. So far, the others actresses who premiered their films at Venice & Telluride got strong reviews but not ones matching the ones Kristen got. Film Twitter and pundits were hyping Gaga as the front-runner and eventual winner non-stop for the past months, but now that films like Spencer, Parallel Mothers and The Lost Daughter have premiered, people have changed their predictions. I already said the category is a bloodbath in another thread, and that there will be snubs. And let’s not forget about Frances McDormand. Her movie is yet to premiere.
Imagine all of the KStew train hype only for McDormand winning her fourth…
Gaga could benefit from being MGM main priority after Respect “flopped” in a way but I have to agree that HoG looks like it could flop and I’ll say Comer is safer than Gaga, for now. She has the better material IMO
FYC:
Best Director: Edgar Wright, Guillermo Del Toro, Jane Campion
Best Picture: Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
Best Actress: Kristen Stewart, Thomasin McKenzie, Rooney Mara, Tessa Thompson
Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Bradley Cooper
Best S. Actress: Cate Blanchett, Diana Rigg, Anya Taylor Joy
Best S. Actor: Kodi Smit McPhee, Willem Dafoe, Richard JenkinsTwo women in a row for Best Director, let’s go
FYC
Best Actress - Pénélope Cruz, Olivia Colman
Best Actor - Denzel Washington
Best Supporting Actress - Aunjanue Ellis, Kathryn Hunter
If she loses it will be to a late-breaker IMO.
I know one director who got their late-breaker in Picture, Director, and Supporting Actress. Let’s see if he can manage ATL wins this time.
Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.
Two women in a row for Best Director, let’s go
We’re really living the dream! Go Jane!
I know one director who got their late-breaker in Picture, Director, and Supporting Actress. Let’s see if he can manage ATL wins this time.
I didn’t enjoy her as much as others in Phantom Thread but I need Lesley to come collect her things on her next go round.
FYC:
"The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")
Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project is such a better title than Soggy Bottom.
Soggy Bottom has so much mystery and unknown variables that could either produce a masterpiece or Inherent Vice. Cooper Hoffman, Phillip Seymour Hoffman’s son, is having his debut and lead role in a PTA film. The cast is mostly unfamiliar with the Academy apart from Bradley Cooper. So little is known about the film too coming from a major film studio.
Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.
This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.Every year there is a film that over-performs its initial critical reception at the end of year critics awards. Last year it was Promising Young Woman, the year before Jojo Rabbit… what do you guys think it will be this year?
FYC:
"The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")
David Ehrlich, a passionate supporter of Roma, to the surprise of no one dislikes Belfast and calls it a rose-tinted glasses contradiction that uses its crowdpleasing tools to produce an inauthentic portrayal of Belfast. Highly curious what the Metacritic score of the film will be in the end.
Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.
Just hoping Belfast doesn’t get any nominations, I can’t take another black & white ‘personal’ film. If you wanna make a personal(meaning boring) movie then make it with your iphone and just show it to your family and friends, no need to release that shit to the world.
Highly curious what the Metacritic score of the film will be in the end.
I think it will land in the late 70s. Not too overwhelming praise but enough to be a contender.
FYC:
"The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")
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