September 6, 2021 at 12:30 pm #1204440925
Honestly I think Campion could end up becoming the undeniable frontrunner of the season à la Cuaron. She’s well respected on an international level which will help her with an increasingly international academy, she’s arguably overdue but also the amount of passion for her work here seems to greatly outweigh that of her competitors who have screened thus far (aside from maybe Branagh). If she loses it will be to a late-breaker IMO.
Yeah I think among the films that have screened so far she’s the Director frontrunner. There are quite a few directors who have premiered who I think could be nominated, Branagh and Sorrentino the most likely, but I don’t foresee either being ahead of Campion. I think PTA, McKay and Del Toro probably represent her biggest threats. PTA has a strong narrative, but so much remains to be seen about that film that I’m not going to make that call yet. McKay I always think is more likely to be rewarded for his screenplays, and I think his direction is pretty divisive. Del Toro has a tenuous narrative based on Cuaron and Inarritu having two Director Oscars each, but I doubt that will sway any voters. I think Nightmare Alley will be a big player, but I’m not sure I see it quite as a Top 3 contender as of now which you realistically need to be to win in Director. So yep, I have Campion in a semi-commanding lead, but I think there’s a half dozen directors that could snatch that lead from her.September 6, 2021 at 12:33 pm #1204440934
David Ehrlich, a passionate supporter of Roma, to the surprise of no one dislikes Belfast and calls it a rose-tinted glasses contradiction that uses its crowdpleasing tools to produce an inauthentic portrayal of Belfast. Highly curious what the Metacritic score of the film will be in the end.
I’m guessing about 74-76, but it’s one of those where the Metascore doesn’t matter so much unless it’s either really low or really high. It’ll get by as a big, upbeat crowd-pleaser with an emotional and personal touch with a Metascore anywhere above, say… 65. I’d put money on it at least placing in the top 3 for the TIFF Audience Award, which will likely foreshadow this route.September 6, 2021 at 12:35 pm #1204440939
Belfast is the only film I’m confident in placing for the TIFF audience award.
"The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")September 6, 2021 at 12:51 pm #1204440957
Denis Villeneuve produces the biggest spectacle of the year, but will lose in the same vein as Sam Mendes (1917), Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk), and Villeneuve himself for Arrival lost. Gravity is an interesting case where the biggest spectacle did win but the film made 723 million dollars, had a 96 Metacritic score, and Sandra Bullock being nominated when other spectacles like 1917 and Dunkirk failed to get an acting nomination. Directing wins in the past decade have been tied to acting nominations apart from Ang Lee (which Affleck would have won if the directors branch did not snub him) and Bong Joon-Ho (which Parasite is an anomaly all on its own but at least won SAG ensemble). This makes sense sicne the acting and directing relationship is one of the most important relationships in the film industry and hence good acting is related to good directing. Interstellar got McConaughey in but was divisive and the directing styles of 12 year filming from Linklater and Innaritu’s one shot style overshadowed Nolan.
Campion’s greatest challenger is Del Toro who is known for his unique directing techniques and I can imagine how many gorgeous one takes and long shots we could be getting from filming the carnival scenes. Del Toro will suffer a lot of loss buzz from his film not appearing at festivals especially if TPOTD wins the Golden Lion.
Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.September 6, 2021 at 12:57 pm #1204440970
The Power of the Dog is the film every director at the Telluride Film Festival was in awe over. You could just hear them buzzing about it. Why, because they KNOW. They know what an uncompromising vision looks like. Will it disturb people? Yes. Is it sometimes uncomfortable to watch? Absolutely. Does it pull back at all? No. Is it a joyful time at the cinema? No. But my god, it is brilliant. This is not a film that is going to give you any easy answers. In fact, Campion has adapted the novel to remove those easy answers to leave you with your own thoughts and where they might take you. This is the genius of Campion, and all of the best directors who are interested in giving you something you have to think about later. And then think about again. And then think about some more.September 6, 2021 at 1:22 pm #1204441024
Okay it is downright EERIE to me that Sasha Stone understands this film better than most critics. EERIE. There’s one line in it that is so exactly right but no review said it so I was afraid it wasn’t in the film. Clearly it is.
Re: the vastly different takes (which indicate a need to rewatch) — this is exactly what the book is like. My takeaways the 2nd time were totally different to those my 1st time.
Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.
The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy KotsurSeptember 6, 2021 at 1:31 pm #1204441045
resonant as is her movie than some of your hopefuls. No offense but you want Gaga out to make room for Passing and Mass actresses. It’s very clear that’s the reason why you zero’d on Gaga. You think she’s fluff and easier to cast aside than lets say Toothache or fest actresses who aren’t Kristen. That’s all that is.
That’s not really fair and you know it. I’ve said from Day 1 that Gaga could slide right in regardless of quality, regardless of the film because she’s just THAT hyped. I found it unfortunate, but I’ve never said she wouldn’t get in. The Mass ladies are in supporting and I don’t stan Mass (yet lol). I don’t think Thompson (Passing) is in yet. Colman is already in imo. I zeroed in on her because she’s at the top.
The reason I said that is because until Stewart came along Gaga was no. 1, so there was no reason to worry at all. She could be 5th and get in. But as it happens, it looks like she won’t be competing so much with the festival ladies as with the late breakers that may be BP films (Kidman, Blanchett in particular). I’ve been skeptical of all of them but still saw Gaga as having the best shot. Now I don’t. Don’t bombard me for thinking this please, I genuinely am just trying to call what I see, and convincing me won’t make it happen anyway.
FYI: Vanity Fair reported today that Belfast will try to get all 4 categories today with Balfe, Dornan, Hinds, Dench. Balfe doesn’t seem to be going supporting (maybe that will change but as of now she’s in Lead). And for one of the Oscar frontrunners. Someone who can’t measure up at all to Gaga’s visibility (I’ve never seen anything of Balfe btw) seems to have a better shot because there is a higher correlation increasingly between BP and Actress.
I saw some people being mad about that correlation. Um. Sure. But more female centric films are getting into BP & that’s GREAT. The reason Actor & BP correlated so highly was because the “women’s films” barely ever got in.
Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.
The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy KotsurSeptember 6, 2021 at 1:31 pm #1204441047
If Sasha Stone is rooting with the female director contender to win for the first time ever you know The Power of the Dog will be a strong Best Picture and Director contender.
Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.September 6, 2021 at 1:31 pm #1204441049
Sasha Stone has many good takes. It is only when she tries to go anti woke twitter and ends up with many republican adjacent takes because she feels woke twitter is caping too hard.September 6, 2021 at 1:34 pm #1204441059
Sasha Stone has many good takes. It is only when she tries to go anti woke twitter and ends up with many republican adjacent takes because she feels woke twitter is caping too hard.
I think Campion reminded her of when she was good 😎 lol
Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.
The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy KotsurSeptember 6, 2021 at 1:39 pm #1204441072
SOGGY BOTTOM is in select theaters Nov 26 and everywhere Dec 25. Who wants to bet it debuts at AFI Fest?
SOGGY BOTTOM is in select theaters Nov 26 and everywhere Dec 25. Who wants to bet it debuts at AFI Fest? #soggybottom #film #paulthomasanderson #bradleycooper #cooperhoffman #bennysafdie #filmtwitter #movies #cinema #cinephile
— Josh Blumenkranz (@JoshBlumenkranz) September 6, 2021September 6, 2021 at 1:41 pm #1204441082
The Power of the Dog is the film every director at the Telluride Film Festival was in awe over. You could just hear them buzzing about it. Why, because they KNOW. They know what an uncompromising vision looks like. Will it disturb people? Yes. Is it sometimes uncomfortable to watch? Absolutely. Does it pull back at all? No. Is it a joyful time at the cinema? No. But my god, it is brilliant. This is not a film that is going to give you any easy answers. In fact, Campion has adapted the novel to remove those easy answers to leave you with your own thoughts and where they might take you. This is the genius of Campion, and all of the best directors who are interested in giving you something you have to think about later. And then think about again. And then think about some more. https://www.awardsdaily.com/2021/09/06/the-power-of-the-dog-is-jane-campions-best/
Also in the interview:
All you have to do is put out your hand and shake and say “Hello, I loved your movie and your whole career and by the way you have had an enormous influence on my life.” That’s all I had to do. Shake, speak, leave. Jane stood up, I was introduced to her and the experience suddenly brought me to tears and I could say nothing to her. I was just in tears, you know like those people who waited all night to meet Princess Diana and then could do nothing but blubber in her presence? That was me.
I had about two minutes to compose myself and try to say “Nice to meet you,” etc. She said, “That’s okay, we love crying women.” And then she gave me a hug. When I tried to explain why this happened to me to Tomris Laffly at another party later the same thing happened. And once again I could not speak without crying. What is WRONG with me?
Now, of course, as I type this I’m crying again. What I wanted to say to her, and to explain to Tomris, is that when I was growing up in the 1980s and coming of age as a woman who dreamed of bigger things there was only Jane Campion as an example of a female director who was as good as her male counterparts. She was better than most of them, in fact. She was so good she was living proof that women could be just as visionary behind the camera, just as brutal, vulgar and dark, just as fearless, just as original. She could have her own thumbprint with her work where you immediately knew you were inside the world of Jane Campion.
Yes I am sympathizing with Sasha Stone…Jane Campion and her work is a marvel to behold for me to do this.
Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.September 6, 2021 at 1:47 pm #1204441102
The power of the dog feels like this years “There will be blood” I do think it could be difficult for it to win best picture. It will be too dark and complex for some Accademy members. This could be the year of something more “light” like Belfast or maybe West side story.
The power of the dog might be the critics favourite but that does not, unfortunately, mean that it will win best picture. I have high hopes for PTA and Nightmare Alley.
Best Picture: Licorice Pizza, West Side Story, Dune.
Best Director: PTA, Denis Villeneuve
Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza.
Best Actress: Alana HaimSeptember 6, 2021 at 1:57 pm #1204441136
People are talking about how sad it is that Mass is with Bleecker St, but……..Passing is right there. It’s gotten just as many absolutely stunning raves, and it’s at NYFF, and it fits the trend perfectly.
Gaga is increasingly unlikely. Stans should be worried.
There’s a super wildcard critics fave actor we’re missing BIG and will surprise us. Simon Rex? Jonathan Majors? Antonio Banderas?
Belfast is in. It’ll probably win TIFF People’s Choice, and if it does, it won’t mean much because it is too vanilla for changing voters and audiences. My best guess as to the “masterpiece” critics reviews? Telluride is a warm, weepy place, and it made them cry because festivals are emotional places & the film gave them opportunities to cry and they knee-jerk called it a masterpiece. With time, that’ll come down.
And tick, tick…BOOM! is just as much of a possibility. – No, there is no cap on Netflix films. It can happen and if it does it’ll be an accident based on quality. Sowwy! *hides*
I have thoughts on a few of these:
– far too early to say so definitively on Gaga as the movie has not been seen, though I agree that Actress is looking very competitive so she could easily miss
– The critics’ fave is going to be either Dev Patel or Adam Driver (both of whom also have real shots with BAFTA – Patel because he’s British and Driver because critical response to Annette in the UK has been really good). More likely Patel as his film was more broadly well-received. Simon Rex is a non-starter. Joaquin maybe.
– Belfast will get in everywhere but win nothing
– Tick Tick Boom is going nowhere – Netflix won’t prioritise itSeptember 6, 2021 at 2:02 pm #1204441149
This award season is a wrap folks. With an outstanding debut of 88 on Metacritic, The Lost Daughter has launched itself into the frontrunner position of every category including Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay. This movie is going to be unstoppable – be prepared for studios to start pushing their films back a year to avoid this competition. With her debut feature, Maggie Gyllenhaal has solidified herself to be the greatest director of all time, passing the likes of the great Martin Scorsese and the late Alfred Hitchcock. Olivia Colman – what a woman. She is unstoppable. That Oscar already has her name engraved onto it. As I type this I truly feel lost for words – The Lost Daughter will go down as the most important and memorable movie of all time.Not now
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