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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 7)

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    crabbie
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    Jane Campion’s narrative of being one of the pioneers of women being recognized by the Academy for the first time in the 1990’s, inspiring copious women into the prospects of women entering filmmaking, and then reentering the award scene from her almost 3 decade abesence with a critically acclaimed The Power of the Dog is a strong empowering narrative. Campion is undoubtedly going to make history being the first woman to be nominated for Best Director 2 times in the Academy’s history with still no directing Oscar.

    She is the one to beat and I would be surprised if anyone later in the scene can overcome this passion. Not to mention the directing in the film is likely to be flashy and top-notch—the comparisons of the film being better than the well crafted The Piano is very interesting and bodes well for her winning potential this season.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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    Keeppounding88
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    Every year there is a film that over-performs its initial critical reception at the end of year critics awards. Last year it was Promising Young Woman, the year before Jojo Rabbit… what do you guys think it will be this year?

    Dune

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    wolfali
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    – The critics’ fave is going to be either Dev Patel or Adam Driver (both of whom also have real shots with BAFTA – Patel because he’s British and Driver because critical response to Annette in the UK has been really good). More likely Patel as his film was more broadly well-received.

    I think neither will make the long-list at BAFTA. Driver can only make it in on the long-list for one film if he’s being submitted in lead for both Annette and House of Guccci and does The Green Knight even have a UK release date yet after it was pulled from the schedules a few months ago?

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    schmids
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    I think neither will make the long-list at BAFTA. Driver can only make it in on the long-list for one film if he’s being submitted in lead for both Annette and House of Gucci

    Driver has a much better shot at making BAFTA for Annette than he does for Gucci even if the latter does well so I don’t think it matters.

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    loudtoilet
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    Jane Campion’s narrative of being one of the pioneers of women being recognized by the Academy for the first time in the 1990’s, inspiring copious women into the prospects of women entering filmmaking, and then reentering the award scene from her almost 3 decade abesence with a critically acclaimed The Power of the Dog is a strong empowering narrative. Campion is undoubtedly going to make history being the first woman to be nominated for Best Director 2 times in the Academy’s history with still no directing Oscar. She is the one to beat and I would be surprised if anyone later in the scene can overcome this passion. Not to mention the directing in the film is likely to be flashy and top-notch—the comparisons of the film being better than the well crafted The Piano is very interesting and bodes well for her winning potential this season.

    That’s not how Director’s Branch votes. They don’t give a crap about politics (transaltion: American talking points) because this branch has many foreigners and their sensibilities are different from American. All this First This First That is not important to non-Americans and not all Americans care either. Which is why this branch passed on quite a few “historical narratives” that were hotly touted on prediction forums and in media, because they thought that someone without such narrative did a better job.

    If they find Campion work to be the biggest achievent/most impressive/best/most complex/inovative she will win on that. If not, it’s going to be whoever impressed the most. Like I said, this branch is least swayed by the politics.

     

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    crabbie
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    That’s not how Director’s Branch votes. They don’t give a crap about politics (transaltion: American talking points) because this branch has many foreigners and their sensibilities are different from American. All this First This First That is not important to non-Americans and not all Americans care either. Which is why this branch passed on quite a few “historical narratives” that were hotly touted on prediction forums and in media, because they thought that someone without such narrative did a better job. If they find Campion work to be the biggest achievent/most impressive/best/most complex/inovative she will win on that. If not, it’s going to be whoever impressed the most. Like I said, this branch is least swayed by the politics.

    I’m not suggesting Campion will win based on politics. All of the Academy voters for the Oscars. She has the work to back it up and it would be baffling if Campion does not get nominated by the directors branch when Campion is clearly the festival director darling this season like Del Toro, Chazelle, Cuaron, and Innaritu. This isn’t wishful thinking in thinking Gerwig or Lulu Wang will get nominated. Campion has her nomination locked.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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    JV
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    SOGGY BOTTOM is in select theaters Nov 26 and everywhere Dec 25. Who wants to bet it debuts at AFI Fest?
    https://twitter.com/joshblumenkranz/status/1434968913217949696?s=21

    There’s been a chattering about a secret screening at New York Film Festival. I think this is it.

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    loudtoilet
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    I agree that Campion is absolutely locked. I’m just saying that DB and DGA too are least affected by sentimentality and politics. if work is mediocre or not Top 5 no amount of twitter screaming and hashtagging is going to put you through (see Gerwig for LW, Regina King for Miami). Campion is likely Top or Top 2 atm. She’s staying in Top 5 no matter what else breaks out.

    Re: Sasha Stone. Who cares about her politics? If she makes good points about the Oscar race, and she does, than people should quote that and leave the rest out on prediction forums. I like it that she always cautions about the preferential ballot (makes a difference for better or worse) and she makes good points about what kind of voter votes for X what for Y, how branches vote, etc. Also, she made a good point about KSTew fandom amplifying her hype cause they are passionate, which is something  “meme actors” such as she, Driver and Chalamet have. I call them meme cause they are perma meme fixture on social media and their fandom on platforms exceeds their boxoffice power. They are not movie stars who open but they didn’t exactly try to carry commercial movies either. Yet they do have passionate fandom to rival fandom of actual movie stars with opening power, that amplifies any hype (just look at how Centaur ad blew up a few months ago).  So her advising caution that current KStew hype may not be the same as industry hype is fair.

     

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    wolfali
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    SOGGY BOTTOM is in select theaters Nov 26 and everywhere Dec 25. Who wants to bet it debuts at AFI Fest? https://twitter.com/joshblumenkranz/status/1434968913217949696?s=21

    I hope Mary Berry presents the Q&A for it.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    crabbie
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    I agree that Campion is absolutely locked. I’m just saying that DB and DGA too are least affected by sentimentality and politics. if work is mediocre or not

    I was going based on her work not being mediocre, which it won’t be. Btw what do you think of the comparison that Campion’s artsy masculinity film will beat Villeneuve in the same way Bigelow beat the highest grossing spectacle of all time from Cameron?

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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    kaziz
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    – far too early to say so definitively on Gaga as the movie has not been seen, though I agree that Actress is looking very competitive so she could easily miss

    Okay seriously how is “increasingly unlikely” = “so definitive”. We’re literally both saying the same thing.

    – Tick Tick Boom is going nowhere – Netflix won’t prioritise it

    I threw it into a mix of films that are all looking increasingly squeezed. Since it’ll be playing AFI for sure, and perhaps especially because it offers a player in Original Song at the very least, I threw it into a pile of “unlikely’s” but again, not definitive about anything.

    Simon Rex is a non-starter. Joaquin maybe.

    I said Simon Rex right before a question mark lol

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    loudtoilet
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    I was going based on her work not being mediocre, which it won’t be. Btw what do you think of the comparison that Campion’s artsy masculinity film will beat Villeneuve in the same way Bigelow beat the highest grossing spectacle of all time from Cameron?

    Nothing because it won’t play any role in voting. Cameron and Biegow were exes so that entertained industry people since they knew their history. It isn’t comparable. Also, what does arsy masculinity film even mean? THL was masculine I guess (no women), Avatar was feminine (lots of important women, female co-lead). Cameron already won for the feminine movie (Titanic). I don’t get what your comment means. :thinking:

    Never said Campion was mediocre since reviews obviously praise the achievement and lcok her for at least a nom but upper level nom so contends to win. I just gave examples of Below Top 5 work (from Directors’ POV) that didn’t make the cut despite twitter hashtagging and screams.

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    crabbie
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    Also, what does arsy masculinity film even means?

    I was pointing out how both TPOTD and THL are arthouse films with very few women that similarity deal with masculinity. It was a playful comparison lol.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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    loudtoilet
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    I was pointing out how both TPOTD and THL are arthouse films with very few women that similarity deal with masculinity. It was a playful comparison lol.

    No, I got the playful part, I just wasn’t sure what it meant! 🙂

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