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If HoG ended up not being a player for Picture (lets say below 60 Metascore) and PTA’s Untitled Movie performed better with Critics, I think PTA is in for Director and the Movie itself is in for Picture
FYC:
Best Director: Edgar Wright, Guillermo Del Toro, Jane Campion
Best Picture: Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
Best Actress: Kristen Stewart, Thomasin McKenzie, Rooney Mara, Tessa Thompson
Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Bradley Cooper
Best S. Actress: Cate Blanchett, Diana Rigg, Anya Taylor Joy
Best S. Actor: Kodi Smit McPhee, Willem Dafoe, Richard JenkinsIf Belfast wins the TIFF, then it’s secured at least one above the line win for the movie. That’s how a lot of people predicted Jojo Rabbit over Little Women even before WGA. If not Original Screenplay, Directing or Picture, then Ciaran Hinds, Caitriona Balfe or Judi Dench
Nomadland, Jojo Rabbit, Green Book, Three Billboards, La La Land, Room, The Imitation Game, 12 Years a Slave, Silvers Linings Playbook. That’s the streak.
But if AMPAS lovesGucci and hates Soggy Bottom and flips critics the bird? 🙂
I said Simon Rex right before a question mark lol
Yes and I responded that I didn’t think it would be him. I can’t respond to questions? Though admittedly I should have used different wording re: Gaga so I’ll take that L.
Okay its all depends on how HoG will be received. The thing is… while they might seems to didnt really care about critics reviews…. at the end of the day they did in some ways. Hillbily Elegy missed picture as a straight up Oscar Bait right up in AMPAS alley yet flopped critically. Sure they nominate Glenny but the movie missed other above the line categories.
FYC:
Best Director: Edgar Wright, Guillermo Del Toro, Jane Campion
Best Picture: Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
Best Actress: Kristen Stewart, Thomasin McKenzie, Rooney Mara, Tessa Thompson
Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Bradley Cooper
Best S. Actress: Cate Blanchett, Diana Rigg, Anya Taylor Joy
Best S. Actor: Kodi Smit McPhee, Willem Dafoe, Richard JenkinsIf Belfast wins the TIFF, then it’s secured at least one above the line win for the movie. That’s how a lot of people predicted Jojo Rabbit over Little Women even before WGA. If not Original Screenplay, Directing or Picture, then Ciaran Hinds, Caitriona Balfe or Judi Dench Nomadland, Jojo Rabbit, Green Book, Three Billboards, La La Land, Room, The Imitation Game, 12 Years a Slave, Silvers Linings Playbook. That’s the streak.
I wonder if Catriona Balfe could end up being the Emma Stone to Stewart’s Portman?
FYC:
"The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")
I wonder if Catriona Balfe could end up being the Emma Stone to Stewart’s Portman?
Emma Stone has Volpi……
FYC:
Best Director: Edgar Wright, Guillermo Del Toro, Jane Campion
Best Picture: Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
Best Actress: Kristen Stewart, Thomasin McKenzie, Rooney Mara, Tessa Thompson
Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Bradley Cooper
Best S. Actress: Cate Blanchett, Diana Rigg, Anya Taylor Joy
Best S. Actor: Kodi Smit McPhee, Willem Dafoe, Richard JenkinsI feel like the TIFF People Choice frontrunner status of Belfast is going to curse it. In the past, did these forums predict Jojo, Green Book, and Three Billboards to win? I’m still predicting Belfast but it would be comical if it lost considering how much it appeals to TIFF basic audiences.
Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.
Is there a chance some critics are getting a little over excited about some of the movies playing at September festivals? Re one of the big movies that played Venice yesterday: near universal dislike among industry I’ve spoken to, but critics generally gushing. The tweet was made on September 4 9:45AM italy time). So yesterday would be the September 3rd premieres of Dune and Spencer. TLD premiered on September 2
I think it could be Dune. We’ll see at TIFF how well it does. If it fails to place with the audience award I’m taking it out and slotting King Richard in.
FYC:
"The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")
I wonder if Catriona Balfe could end up being the Emma Stone to Stewart’s Portman?
Emma Stone won the Volpi Cup, beating Natalie Portman. Jackie won Screenplay so the jury liked the movie. They just wanted to give it to Stone.
Yes and I responded that I didn’t think it would be him. I can’t respond to questions? Though admittedly I should have used different wording re: Gaga so I’ll take that L.
I low-key admire your particular mix of bluntness & humility lol, it’s very charming.
Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.
The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur
Inevitably (this always happens) some films will go up in estimation and others will go down in estimation despite their MC and RT scores, mostly because of how critics groups see it & because they’re the first bellwether of “passion” but they’re not at all “ordinary audiences”.
Yes, I’ll throw in TPOTD as a film that could go down, King Richard, CODA (HOW!!!), The French Dispatch (didn’t get what it needed) but Belfast in particular………it’s SO VANILLA. The rose-tinted critique is not just David Ehrlich’s—it’s mentioned in MANY reviews, so it’s trying to run a Green Book path at best (except without any sure-shot acting winners as far as I can tell. With the exception of Hinds, no nominees are assured either!) But Green Book was a total anomaly and the weird way in which Belfast seems so apolitical……it really jars with recent winners.*
Spencer is just right, I think. It’s in, but it’s probbbbbably not a frontrunner. That seems about right.
Dune, The Lost Daughter, The Hand of God, Parallel Mothers, Passing, The Card Counter all strike me as being under-estimated. I’m not saying they’re all getting in obviously, but I am suggesting that they should probably not be 100/1 which they all are (except Dune).
*I realize people critique Nomadland for not being hard enough on Amazon, but many disagree: I think it was just hard enough—nomadic wage workers shown doing physical labor and working at Amazon to just get by is….definitely a critique. What more do you want—an arm to get chopped off?
Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.
The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur
The power of the dog feels like this years “There will be blood” I do think it could be difficult for it to win best picture. It will be too dark and complex for some Accademy members. This could be the year of something more “light” like Belfast or maybe West side story.
The power of the dog might be the critics favourite but that does not, unfortunately, mean that it will win best picture. I have high hopes for PTA and Nightmare Alley.
I agree. Masterpieces like There Will Be Blood rarely win, heh. TPOTD is a heavy contender but could lose on the preferential ballot, but I highly disagree with the “light” critique. Nah. Even if it’s a comedy like DLU it will be a dark comedy with complexity, and plenty to say. I don’t feel comfy predicting Green Book just yet because that’s increasingly the anomaly not the rule.
Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.
The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur
Emma Stone has Volpi……
Emma Stone won the Volpi Cup, beating Natalie Portman. Jackie won Screenplay so the jury liked the movie. They just wanted to give it to Stone.
I know but Balfe’s film didn’t compete at Venice so I’m not considering that as a hurdle.
At the end of the day Stone gave a festival buzzed about performance in a top tier Best Picture contender which helped give her the leg up for the win (alongside her Volpi win). I’m still predicting Stewart for the win but I wonder if Balfe could be the Stone of this year (festival buzzed about performance, “the underdog”, top tier Picture contender beats biopic depiction).
FYC:
"The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")
I think it could be Dune. We’ll see at TIFF how well it does. If it fails to place with the audience award I’m taking it out and slotting King Richard in.
It’s not Dune, he loved it. It’s spencer, his other tweets also say he hated it
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