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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 7)

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    wolfali
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    #1204442441

    Letterboxd is full of film snobs tho…crowdpleasers will get better rating on rotten tomato audience score and imdb.

    I mean Hidden Figures has a 3.8 rating on Letterboxd and that isn’t exactly a film disproportionately liked by film snobs.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    OccultCherry
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    Sep 13th, 2020
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    #1204442453

    King Richard doing this well is so gross. Will Smith has to be stopped.

    FYC:

    Picture: Nomadland
    Director: Chloe Zhao
    Leading Actress: Frances McDormand
    Leading Actor: Anthony Hopkins
    Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-jung
    Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Adapted Screenplay: The Father
    Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman

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    crabbie
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    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204442459

    Belfast has a 3.3 Letterboxd rating while King Richard has a 3.5. I imagine the Roma comparisons and articles calling the film a masterpiece/best picture winner will severely affect people’s expectations for Belfast. It’s not necessarily safe to win TIFF People Choice Award. I’m still predicting it but I question why Warner Bros would not send King Richard to TIFF since it would have easily beat Belfast there.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204442462

    Belfast has a 3.3 Letterboxd rating while King Richard has a 3.5. I imagine the Roma comparisons and articles calling the film a masterpiece/best picture winner will severely affect people’s expectations for Belfast. It’s not necessarily safe to win TIFF People Choice Award. I’m still predicting it but I question why Warner Bros would not send King Richard to TIFF since it would have easily beat Belfast there.

    Honestly, a lot of TIFF films could beat Belfast :/ TIFF audiences aren’t regular audiences, hell Spencer looks like it might have it in the bag more!

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    Film expert
    Joined:
    Dec 6th, 2019
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    #1204442479

    Just remembering that The Tragedy of Macbeth is an Apple film, not A24.

    Yes exactly, I see people have misconcpetions about this.

    Apple has bought it, it’s their film, A24 is only handling for them limited domestic release.

    In the same vein as Killers of the Flower Moon is Apple’s film, they own the rights to it and Paramount is only doing for them theatrical distribiution.
    Knowing that money won’t be problem and it will probably be their main push, I suspect Apple will give The Tragedy of Macbeth big campaign.

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    wolfali
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    #1204442486

    Honestly, a lot of TIFF films could beat Belfast :/ TIFF audiences aren’t regular audiences, hell Spencer looks like it might have it in the bag more!

    When Soho wins…

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    crabbie
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    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204442503

    Dear Evan Hansen’s world premiere at TIFF is coming for People Choice. I hope The Humans surprises.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204442505

    Crazy how almost everything has a streaming partner/platform that owns it — and yet here we are still with the “Netflix bias”

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    The Oscarguy
    Joined:
    Jan 11th, 2021
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    #1204442511

    Do we agree that Belfast is screwed if doesn’t at least place as a runner-up for People’s Choice?

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    loudtoilet
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    Feb 19th, 2020
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    #1204442542

    No. Belfast is not screwed for a nomination and it was never a player for the win. Like the Dark Side of the Force, festival hype clouds everything. I just said in Best Actor thread, everyone got “best performance of his/her career” reviews and that’s over 20 people per category. You can make a case for everyone based on praise but not everyone’s praised movie is AMPAS thing. A lot will fall off even with critics trying to keep some in conversation.

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    kaziz
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    #1204442549

    Do we agree that Belfast is screwed if doesn’t at least place as a runner-up for People’s Choice?

    It’s not “screwed,” it’s just not really a frontrunner by any means, which I already don’t think it is.

    HOT TAKE
    Which brings me to something else. I think I’ve been reading this as King Richard & TPOTD as frontrunners, but honestly? I think it’s……..Spencer! By all accounts, this is Larrain’s Jackie except it WORKS NEAR-PERFECTLY.

    Sure-shot acting contender? Check.
    Critics love it? Check.
    On the higher side with audiences? Check.
    New for the Academy in a way? Check.
    Venice + Telluride + +TIFF + LFF? Check.

    The only thing that threw us off in the beginning was that TPOTD was the NYFF centerpiece and thus following in Nomadland and Roma‘s footsteps. But apart from the centerpiece, Spencer is…….doing the same thing? At the very least it’s a TOTAL lock, but I think it might actually be our frontrunner and the only reason we haven’t said that is because of Kristen Stewart but Larrain is getting more than his fair share of praise alongside her AND she makes a point to bring him up with her (all actors are doing this, but in this case it’s working!)

    I think Spencer could win the Golden Lion or the Grand Jury Prize (like The Favourite). If the latter, it can also win Volpi (like Colman from The Favourite). That kinda cements it as a candidate which, now, 3 years after The Favourite, isn’t that weird to win BP. Not even the preferential ballot gives me too much pause here.

    I think films that would do really well at the preferential ballot are struggling to get in at all (Flee, The Hand of God which have very high LB scores, the former because of its category and the latter because of critics, and so they just aren’t “locks”). The films that look totally in: King Richard, The Power of the Dog, Belfast + films that are in for BP in my opinion like Dune, The Lost Daughter = I can’t say definitely that they’d do well on a preferential ballot (although the fact that TPOTD has managed to rally to King Richard-levels of audience acclaim across two festivals means…that’s major! I see a lot of revised/edited LB reviews. People slept on it and realized it was good, actually lol).

    But, point is: Spencer as frontrunner? What do y’all think?

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204442569

    C’mon C’mon – 3.8
     
    Spencer – 3.7

    Also C’mon C’mon doing well with critics and audiences, and again, playing multiple fests = sure, it feels like The Card Counter, one of those movies that gets raves but is forgotten about. But even if they’re not in BP, I can see 100% see critics groups swooping in and making Phoenix and Isaac strong. Plus, the frontrunner for Volpi probably hasn’t premiered yet (Toni Servillo, The King of Laughter) but Oscar Isaac seems like a verrrrry safe #2 for Volpi. Even Stewart has strong competition for Volpi with the actress from The Happening as well as Cruz, but since I think Spencer might win a bigger prize, it’s not that big of a deal if she doesn’t win. She’ll still be our Lead Actress frontrunner.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    loudtoilet
    Joined:
    Feb 19th, 2020
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    #1204442622

    No because it’s a critics thing that they can nominate on admiration alone, in particular because of the central performance, but won’t vote for the win, especially since Actress win would be the reward. It just isn’t the type that tops the preferential ballot. Again, people think like highbrow critics and forget that AMPAS taste is more down to Earth with a lot of preference for middlebrow (TIG and TOE, etc).

    Right now, I think that TPOTD is the frontrunner because it feels important and is straightforward enough not to come off as weird, what did I just watch, etc. I think Dune is the second on tech power alone. King Richard will be nominated too but it’s win will be Smith like Stewart will be Spencer’s.

    Right now I see:

    TPOTD – the topical one with the Best Director (current frontrunner to win)

    Dune – the tech one that sweeps below the line

    KR – the crowdpleaser one with Best Actor

    Spencer – the arty one with Best Actress

    Belfast – same as KR minus acting wins

    The foreign one – take your pick between THOG and Almodovar’s latest

    4 more to go likely from newcomers

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    Stefania
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    Feb 22nd, 2021
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    #1204442630

    Also C’mon C’mon doing well with critics and audiences, and again, playing multiple fests = sure, it feels like The Card Counter, one of those movies that gets raves but is forgotten about. But even if they’re not in BP, I can see 100% see critics groups swooping in and making Phoenix and Isaac strong. Plus, the frontrunner for Volpi probably hasn’t premiered yet (Toni Servillo, The King of Laughter) but Oscar Isaac seems like a verrrrry safe #2 for Volpi. Even Stewart has strong competition for Volpi with the actress from The Happening as well as Cruz, but since I think Spencer might win a bigger prize, it’s not that big of a deal if she doesn’t win. She’ll still be our Lead Actress frontrunner.

    ”C’mon C’mon” or “The Card Counter” could get a screenplay nod as well.

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    gorman
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    Dec 24th, 2017
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    #1204442634

    But, point is: Spencer as frontrunner?

    I can’t see it. I have it on the fringes in Picture, Director and Screenplay now, but it would need some audience reception to bump it up from that for me. I appreciate that it’s being billed as a finer-tuned Jackie, which could stand it in good stead for the Picture nomination, but I’m not sure if it can crowd-please to the degree you’re suggesting it will/ will need to. It also just doesn’t feel like a Picture winner, which is hard to explain and pretty subjective, but that’s how I’m seeing it at the minute. I know it’s a modern take on the royal family and will feature some important and resonant themes, but I’m still not sure enough voters are going to be receptive to it to the degree needed. Also its Metascore has dropped a fair bit from 95 where I would have considered this as a possibility – 83 is good, good enough for Picture, but I wouldn’t go as far as to say it put it ahead of TPOTD and Belfast as a frontrunner.

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