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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 7)

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    crabbie
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    #1204442644

    Spencer is likely to make it in Best Picture and Larraín isn’t that far off from making it in director. In fact Spencer is my predicted frontrunner in Original Screenplay right now (melancholic character study that is moving but also intellectual and existential like Manchester by the Sea). That being said, I don’t think Spencer is touching a Best Picture win because it most likely will be deterred by Academy members (primarily older members) watching the film and thinking it’s a standard sanitizing cheerful biopic only for them to get hit by the film’s claustrophobic atmosphere.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    sarahvsmovies
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    #1204442707

    But, point is: Spencer as frontrunner? What do y’all think?

    Yeah. Spencer seems like such an unpredictable and odd winner…but unpredictable and odd in exactly the way the Academy likes to be.

    Also maybe voters will be turned off by the commentary on the Royals but it engages on a topic that’s been very relevant and in public discourse. They love that.

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    ReginaIsKing
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    #1204442710

    People need to stop setting up Kristen and Spencer pls. Y’all now with BP winning predictions and the pundits claiming her as amongst the greatest of all time performances are gonna put higher than needed expectations and get people to drag her to the pits when she finally gets released to everyone.

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    Jacob "Oscar Boy" Boe
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    #1204442751

    I JUST CHECKED OUT TPOTD AND PASSING FROM MY LOCAL LIBRARY IM SO EXCITED TO READ THEM

    Emmys FYC:

    Comedy Series - Abbott Elementary, Atlanta, The Great, Reservation Dogs, What We Do in the Shadows

    Drama Series - Pachinko, Severance, Yellowjackets

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    wolfali
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    #1204442763

    AND TOOK SOHO COMPLETELY OUT OF THE RACE

    Sorry to burst any bubble here (I’m excited for Soho too, it’s my second most anticipated film of the year) but unless Soho places at TIFF for the audience award it’s not getting any above the line Oscar nominations (crafts are still theoretically possible though).

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    SaulAtreides
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    #1204442773

    Brother Bro said Power Of The Dog won’t win a single award 😢 Says Spencer more than likely will follow Jackie footsteps and not get into best picture AND TOOK SOHO COMPLETELY OUT OF THE RACE This day is ruined!

    They were a bit harsh on TPOTD, but they pointed out the same thing I pointed out: barely anyone on Letterboxd is giving it 4.5 or 5 stars, which doesn’t exactly mark a BP winner.

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    Stefania
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    #1204442791

    They were a bit harsh on TPOTD, but they pointed out the same thing I pointed out: barely anyone on Letterboxd is giving it 4.5 or 5 stars, which doesn’t exactly mark a BP winner.

    Some people give fake reviews from LB at this point just to bring the movie down. There is a one star review from a user that I recognize from this forum and he has not seen the movie for real. He/she did the same with Dune.

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    nevkm
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    #1204442851

    Some people give fake reviews from LB at this point just to bring the movie down. There is a one star review from a user that I recognize from this forum and he has not seen the movie for real. He/she did the same with Dune.

    What a loser lmao.

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    Butz
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    #1204442863

    Some people give fake reviews from LB at this point just to bring the movie down. There is a one star review from a user that I recognize from this forum and he has not seen the movie for real. He/she did the same with Dune.

    Fair but imho (don’t want to detract from TPOTD, haven’t seen it yet) that doesn’t negate the argument since there are still very few totally enthusiastic votes.

    Letterboxd: Ray_In_Bruges

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    Stefania
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    #1204442870

    But, point is: Spencer as frontrunner? What do y’all think?

    https://variety.com/2021/film/awards/kristen-stewart-spencer-oscar-chances-1235058073/

    Clayton Davis seems to think that it’s not even making it into BP, because it’s not a straightforward biopic of Diana. Are AMPAS so simple-minded not to understand this?

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    kaziz
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    #1204442897

    I was just floating Spencer as a possibility because my mind is drifting there. It does have a LOT of passion! Which is…honestly…I have no clue! But I thought it worth it to bring up because people love talking about it

    Also guys, let’s not take LB THAT seriously. Take what people say more seriously: TPOTD doesn’t have enough 5 and 4.5s on LB? Who cares! This immensely divisive, uber-cinephile film still got the exact same average score as KING RICHARD—you know, the film that’s being called a crowd-pleaser, and everyone’s all like “Hidden Figures-vibes”?

    I feel like one thing should be said at the very outset of this season because pundits are doing it a lot: There’s this argument that TPOTD (and many other films!) are too divisive. But why? Because they’re challenging. Why are they challenging? Because they’re so intelligent and require the audience to really, really think. Now, I don’t disagree that it’s probably an intelligent film. But I find it MASSIVELY elitist to make this argument. I really, REALLY do. There are, actually, lots of incredibly intelligent films that audiences have loved, and right now we’re so early on we’re leaning on LB scores to generalize because we don’t know exactly what audiences will love.

    But ordinary, regular people……..are intelligent, maybe? Like, people need to stop being so condescending about this! The Piano & There Will Be Blood, two of arguably the most intelligent films I’ve ever seen, were box office smashes. It may not win BP for being so intelligent, but I hate it when “cinephile” pundits/critics talk down to “ordinary” audiences like that.

    E.g.: The Lost Daughter is very intelligent & complex, but when I read the negative reviews, most people DID get it actually, they just didn’t like the message. TPOTD will probably take me personally two watches just like the book needed at least two reads, but any ordinary person can just think about things and let them soak in.

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    crabbie
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    #1204442914

    I don’t understand the idea that The Power of the Dog won’t win Best Picture because its too intelligent or that it will fail to resonate with voters because it’s a difficult watch. The film has been stratospherically praised for its directing, storytelling, technical aspects, and acting. The audience reception is polarizing on Letterboxd for whatever reason from the same audience that gave the masterful The Piano an average rating of 3.8 stars. Yet the film is resonating well within Telluride audiences who are overly enthusiastic about the film along with critics (90 MC score). The Power of the Dog is challenging and unnerving, but that adds to the film’s strengths.

    Currently, Jane Campion is the frontrunner for director (this can change of course) and it looks like the screenplay has quite a lead in the Adapted Screenplay category with Nightmare Alley as its biggest challenger though The Shape of Water was never really leading in Original Screenplay in 2018 so we will have to see how this fares out. I don’t think Dune is happening here but can win at techs. The Humans is a possible threat since the source material is fantastic but looks to small scale to win against the dominant TPOTD. We will see how The Last Duel is received on Sep. 10.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    Elsa Korr
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    #1204442931

    Did someone have mentioned (Think it was Kaziz, a couple months ago) said that TPOTD is your typical Western drama that will become Older AMPAS members’ cup of tea when someobe thought its something like Hillbily Elegy? Regardless of Intelligence thing factor will work or not for TPOTD, Older AMPAS members will probably go for this one (granted we havent had good western movie getting AMPAS recognizition since… The Hateful Eight??)

    FYC:
    Best Director: Edgar Wright, Guillermo Del Toro, Jane Campion
    Best Picture: Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
    Best Actress: Kristen Stewart, Thomasin McKenzie, Rooney Mara, Tessa Thompson
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Bradley Cooper
    Best S. Actress: Cate Blanchett, Diana Rigg, Anya Taylor Joy
    Best S. Actor: Kodi Smit McPhee, Willem Dafoe, Richard Jenkins

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    Tick Tock
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    #1204442936

    Critics reviews are all we have at this point of the season and they are important but it’s easy to get carried away by them. We have to remember that AMPAS taste is different from critics taste. Marriage Story has a 94 on Metacritic and it finished behind Joker with a 59 on Metacritic.

    There are indications that TPOTD might not connect with AMPAS as it has with critics with many people who loved it claiming that it will be divisive. Has anybody who has watched TPOTD said that they think it will win BP? Perhaps but many of them have said the opposite because they think it’s unpleasant, too much of a slow burn, or too divisive. But you also can’t deny that it has come out of the festivals looking the strongest so it is probably the safest best to get into BP which is great for it.

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