Home Forums Movies Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 7)

Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 7)

CREATE A NEW TOPIC
CREATE A NEW POLL
Viewing 15 posts - 481 through 495 (of 498 total)
Created
9 months ago
Last Reply
9 months ago
497
replies
39213
views
67
users
kaziz
80
crabbie
72
wolfali
50
  • Profile picture
    Stefania
    Joined:
    Feb 22nd, 2021
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204442938

    The reception of “The Lost Daughter” puzzles me. I just finished the novel and I liked it and I didn’t find it “controversial” at all, but it’s very introspective. Nothing much happens apart from a few conversations, some flashbacks about family and work life, and that’s fine for a novel, but I don’t know about a movie for the general public.

    Some bad reviews on LB (mostly from men I have noticed) say that the movie is boring, long, meandering and sleep-inducing. Yet the reviews on RT are impeccable (still not letting go of that 100% fresh score).

    I have the impression that this movie will be a favorite among critics and it will have its admirers, but not all watchers will feel engaged. I’m excited about it and I’m really looking forward to the performances (especially Colman and Buckley, because they have some interesting, subtle scenes), but I’m afraid it will not hit with certain people. Especially young people who still aren’t feeling the burden of responsibilities might feel cold about this movie.

    Profile picture
    schmids
    Joined:
    Oct 10th, 2020
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204442944

    I was just floating Spencer as a possibility because my mind is drifting there. It does have a LOT of passion! Which is…honestly…I have no clue! But I thought it worth it to bring up because people love talking about it Also guys, let’s not take LB THAT seriously. Take what people say more seriously

    I think the thing that is giving a lot of people pause is that there are reports from festivals that the critical response for Spencer is a lot more enthusiastic than the industry response.

    Like this report from Vanity Fair as an example.

    Quote: ‘I gotta say, I detected some of that same sense of anticlimax when our screening of Spencer concluded. The applause was tepid, the energy subdued. I wonder if that movie is destined to be adored by those predisposed to loving it, but rejected or maybe just ignored by everyone else. Neon might have to be a bit more aggressive in their campaigning than originally planned. That’s my hunch, anyway’

    Profile picture
    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204442946

    Did someone have mentioned (Think it was Kaziz, a couple months ago) said that TPOTD is your typical Western drama that will become Older AMPAS members’ cup of tea when someobe thought its something like Hillbily Elegy? Regardless of Intelligence thing factor will work or not for TPOTD, Older AMPAS members will probably go for this one (granted we havent had good western movie getting AMPAS recognizition since… The Hateful Eight??)

    I don’t think I’ve argued that it’s a typical Western drama, no lol. Naw, I’m too much of a book fan to say it’s “typical”. And as a rule I tend to steer away from saying anything about older AMPAS voters because I don’t know a single damn thing about how old, white people really think lolol.

    I think they might? I think I did say that TPOTD is more in the style of older Oscar BP winners—plenty of winners have been very dark character-dramas that are hard to watch. But the preferential ballot switched things up.

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

    Profile picture
    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204442954

    There is no denying that critics reviews are not an accurate representation of AMPAS taste. I think critics tend to lean heavily towards high brow drama more than the typical AMPAS member which is why Marriage Story and The Farewell metacritic scores are so high but it’s performance at the Oscars were lacking. The Power of the Dog is a western that leans on to thriller and social psychological drama elements that are more up AMPAS speed. I anticipate the western crux of the film will be the most drawn aspect to AMPAS voters. The Power of the Dog may be the critical darling of the season whose technical and storytelling aspects are too strong and overpowering enough to overcome its shortcomings of pundits saying it’s a slow burn or too uncomfortable. The film can build up a large enough passionate support base that triumphs the neighsayers especially those who resonate with its masculinity and LGBT social commentary. Obviously this is a bold risk to predict such a fervent fanbase to emerge from the film since films like Belfast is more likely to be accessible to AMPAS members but it’s a vision people can foresee for TPOTD.

    Right now the film looks incredibly strong in Directing and Adapted Screenplay which of course can change. It’s September. But I anticipate a director loss is more likely than losing in Adapted Screenplay if latebreak challengers such as PTA or Del Toro are very strong.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

    Profile picture
    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204442956

    I think the thing that is giving a lot of people pause is that there are reports from festivals that the critical response for Spencer is a lot more enthusiastic than the industry response.

    Yeah fair enough. I think some critics have given the impression that it’s gonna be REALLY controversial for people who LOVE the royal family, and people who are obsessed with it. But I think wolfali mentioned that it’s getting a much warmer reception from British critics than suspected, and also—I think it’s possibly those critics were overstating the “controversy”. As a story about Diana (and since the queen apparently doesn’t say a single word), it might not be as controversial? I dunno, I am neither British nor a royalist, & I’ll probably love it anyway, so I guess we’ll see. I dunno, I thought it was worth floating because it is pretty highly received as a film, much more than expected!

    This controversy thing is, I feel, just overstated all around. So many films are being labeled this way, and as it turns out Belfast and King Richard are basically just as popular/unpopular. Just thru scores, The Hand of God, C’mon C’mon & (unsurprisingly) Dune feel the most “liked”, but LB scores are a very strange barometer I have to say.

    This is the thing about “controversial”—critics and pundits say it, but it’s condescending & then they’re all when audiences like controversial films (audiences have LONG loved controversial films!) If it’s slow, okay fine, smaller audience, I get that. But no one’s OFFENDED by these films, they either think they’re slow or they’re into em. That’s it!

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

    Profile picture
    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204442962

    Has anybody who has watched TPOTD said that they think it will win BP? Perhaps but many of them have said the opposite because they think it’s unpleasant, too much of a slow burn, or too divisive.

    Yeah people have said that it can. And I don’t think there’s anything wrong with saying it might be too unpleasant or slow (perfectly fair!) but “divisive” is coming from a weird elitist place when you really dig into what they mean by it, and then it was slapped onto Spencer AND SoHo AND The Lost Daughter AND The Hand of God, and by all indications the omg-so-sweet-it-hurts-my-teeth films are doing exactly the same so that elitism pisses me off lol. I’m saying something very blah tbh: cinephiles can be very elitist. Lol.

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

    Profile picture
    schmids
    Joined:
    Oct 10th, 2020
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204442967

    Yeah fair enough. I think some critics have given the impression that it’s gonna be REALLY controversial for people who LOVE the royal family, and people who are obsessed with it. But I think wolfali mentioned that it’s getting a much warmer reception from British critics than suspected, and also—I think it’s possibly those critics were overstating the “controversy”. As a story about Diana (and since the queen apparently doesn’t say a single word), it might not be as controversial? I dunno, I am neither British nor a royalist, & I’ll probably love it anyway, so I guess we’ll see. I dunno, I thought it was worth floating because it is pretty highly received as a film, much more than expected! This controversy thing is, I feel, just overstated all around. So many films are being labeled this way, and as it turns out Belfast and King Richard are basically just as popular/unpopular. Just thru scores, The Hand of God, C’mon C’mon & (unsurprisingly) Dune feel the most “liked”, but LB scores are a very strange barometer I have to say. This is the thing about “controversial”—critics and pundits say it, but it’s condescending & then they’re all when audiences like controversial films (audiences have LONG loved controversial films!) If it’s slow, okay fine, smaller audience, I get that. But no one’s OFFENDED by these films, they either think they’re slow or they’re into em. That’s it!

    I wasn’t specifically referring to controversy? I’ve added a quote from the article to my original comment. It’s about the industry not liking the film as much as critics do, for whatever reason that might be, and that the industry may not be receiving it as well ‘as a film’ as critics are.

    Profile picture
    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204442970

    I have the impression that this movie will be a favorite among critics and it will have its admirers, but not all watchers will feel engaged. I’m excited about it and I’m really looking forward to the performances (especially Colman and Buckley, because they have some interesting, subtle scenes), but I’m afraid it will not hit with certain people. Especially young people who still aren’t feeling the burden of responsibilities might feel cold about this movie.

    I think young people who’ve read Elena Ferrante and the My Brilliant Friend series will love it even if they haven’t read this specific book because they love Ferrante :/ I know a lot of 20 & 30-somethings who are HOT on Ferrante & in a way they’ll know what to expect in tone & content. They’re not even particularly bookish people, Ferrante-fever especially hit the US in a big way back in 2014-15?

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

    Profile picture
    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204442974

    I wasn’t specifically referring to controversy? I’ve added a quote from the article to my original comment. It’s about the industry not liking the film as much as critics do, for whatever reason that might be, and that the industry may not be receiving it as well ‘as a film’ as critics are.

    oh ya by the “people” in my post I was referring to industry. I don’t really know what the answer is to that obviously, I’m just speculating that maybe it’s not disliked. I mean, the most consistently liked/least hated film even if not the most liked film, which also has enough passionate fans is…I think usually how people describe the preferential ballot’s preference? I’m just talking outta my ass though I dunno. I will say I’m excited for the film fosho, will probably love it, but I personally can’t imagine putting any Diana film at number 1 either. Literally just speculating.

    What about Flee?!? I mean—people LOVE this film!

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

    Profile picture
    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204442976

    I will never forget pundits jumping from Once Upon a Time in Hollywood as the frontrunner to The Irishman then to 1917 after it won at the Globes (where it slowly crept up in their predictions and then went full throttle after PGA). I think Jojo Rabbit was included in the mix somewhere after the TIFF win lol. Anyways there is high risk high reward when predicting TPOTD to win Best Picture. I imagine pundits prefer latching on to the safer choice of predicting Belfast which is more accessible yet has low risk high reward.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

    Profile picture
    Tick Tock
    Joined:
    Jul 27th, 2021
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204442981

    Yeah people have said that it can.

    Well “can” is a different thing. Of the people who have watched TPOTD who are predicting it to win BP?

    Profile picture
    SN
    Joined:
    Dec 7th, 2014
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204443018

    It is an A24 release theatrically and Apple on streaming.

    https://a24films.com/films

    The plan is to release the film theatrically worldwide in the fourth quarter by A24, before its global launch on Apple TV+.

    It’s distributed by both companies. A24 is gonna distribute it theatrically and Apple TV+ is gonna launch it globally.

    A24 will distribute theatrically, but Apple will do the campaign. That’s what happened with On the Rocks last year. It’s essentially an Apple film in terms of awards.

    Profile picture
    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204443024

    Well “can” is a different thing. Of the people who have watched TPOTD who are predicting it to win BP?

    Too much work to compile a list, you can Google search or Twitter search it, or you can look at whichever experts are predicting it (not many). It’s not that hard: some people I’ve spoken to think it can. Do I agree? I don’t know. But they exist, and you can choose to not believe it, that’s fine. Plenty more saying Belfast or King Richard. Whatever. I don’t have any real stake in this “who can win” argument. Too early for that! All I cared about was commenting on the elitism regarding many films.

    CAN WE PLEASE TALK ABOUT FLEE!? I am on my kneeeeeeess begginngggg lolololol

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

    Profile picture
    SN
    Joined:
    Dec 7th, 2014
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204443034

    Worst case for TPOTD in my opinion is a Mank scenario: lots of technical nominations, but no chance of winning anything above the line.

    Profile picture
    Tick Tock
    Joined:
    Jul 27th, 2021
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204443040

    Too much work to compile a list, you can Google search or Twitter search it, or you can look at whichever experts are predicting it (not many). It’s not that hard: some people I’ve spoken to think it can.

    I am not specifically asking you for a list, I was just repeating my open question in more unequivocal terms in case there was any ambiguity (“will” not “can” etc).

    I am also not looking for an exhaustive list, that would be too much work, I’m just looking for a couple of names. At this point plenty of people have seen the movie and of those I do not know of anyone predicting it to win BP which is why I asked the question in the first place. I am not even saying there are no such people, just that I have not seen one.

    Why are you reporting this post? (optional):
    Not now
Viewing 15 posts - 481 through 495 (of 498 total)

The topic ‘Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 7)’ is closed to new replies.

Similar Topics
tiermak... - May 21, 2022
Movies
Babylonian - May 20, 2022
Movies
Chris B... - May 19, 2022
Movies