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I keep thinking about that rumor that the industry dislikes “Spencer”while critics love it. There was a tweet, then the absence of awards at Venice and now a second report (from somebody at Telluride I think). Why do you think that is? I mean, it could be wrong or… not. We know Barry Jenkins loved it and it’s huge for me already. I have it in BP, Screenplay, Actress + several below the lines categories, but I’m worried. No haters and stan wars please!
I think the industry wasn’t as blown by Spencer as the critics…which is fine. All it says is Spencer will not be a top 3 bp contender or anything. Lots of industry people lined up to watch Kstew at Telluride including Benedict Cumberbatch. Lost of industry members are tweeting about the movie and performance, it is not weak, maybe not frontrunner for bp or an all round nominee.
I still only think Spencer will get Actress, Costumes and Score. As I have always thought. It’s metacritic score is just a little bit better than Jackie’s and it’s Rotten Tomato scores are not as good as Jackie’s. Plus Jackie had the same buzz out of Venice and was able to win the screenplay award while Spencer didn’t. Long story short, it will perform pretty much the same as Jackie. And this is coming from someone who loved Jackie and I know will love Spencer.
Spencer’s chances in main categories except for BA are getting lower and lower. I guess we gotta wait and see. It wasn’t a main contender even before, but with 10 open slots and no late surprises it still can get in.
I just saw The Power of the Dog (don’t ask me how).
I actually liked it more than I thought I would. I was thoroughly invested all through and never found it boring. I’m not sure I fully understand what the plot or theme was but I enjoyed it regardless. And I’m still not sure about how one judge’s directing but I think JC did a great job of creating the world of 1920s Montana and making me enjoy being there. And I would be happy if she won director. I’m still not sure how the general public is going to react to this movie but I feel like it won’t matter at the end of the day. It’s still a lock for BP and BD nominations.
Dunst gave the best performance in the movie in my opinion. And my second favorite performance was actually Plemons which I know is surprising but I just really liked his character. I thought Jodi Smith-Mcfee was solid but I don’t think he did anything particularly noteworthy and I don’t understand the hype for him. Cumberbatch on the other hand, I don’t know what to say, going into the movie I had heard a lot about his performance and I had high expectations for him but I’m afraid to say that I was disappointed. It’s not like I felt he gave a bad performance but I just expected more, I can’t explain it. But I still think his performance is deserving of an Oscar nomination unlike JSM but I would hold off on calling him the frontrunner for the win. And what was Thomasin McKenzie doing in this movie??? I literally did a double take when I first noticed her. Lol
Belfast is an abomination of cinema that nobody but overgrown adults who obsess over coming of age movies about little kids care about.
When did you watch it?
he literally calls it Irish Roma. thats enough of an abomination to cinema.
Then you haven’t watch it yet. Got it.
Warner Bros is literally saying that, for Dune they don’t care about box office. They only care about HBO Max. If it’s a hit in HBO Max, then there will be a sequel.
This movie is not happening in BP and BD.
Warner Bros is literally saying that, for Dune they don’t care about box office. They only care about HBO Max. If it’s a hit in HBO Max, then there will be a sequel. This movie is not happening in BP and BD.
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Trying to calculate the correlation.I don’t get why some people want to hate on a film just because it’ll be an awards contender. Like there’s nothing about Belfast that seems offensive or problematic, it looks like a well acted feel good film film made by someone with good intentions who might not be as creative as he thinks he is. I’m still not sure if I’ll tear up at it or roll my eyes at it. Is it gonna be better than The Power of the Dog or PTA’s new film, or a lot of films coming out soon? No. But I’m seeing a lot of people who’ve seen it say that it’s already become very special to them, and I think we should just try to be happy about that as film fans and not root against a film that other people love just because it may take awards from something we preferred.
I think 5 TIFF films will make it into picture this year but The Power of the Dog and Belfast are the only 2 showing there that I’m confident will make it in the end lol.
Oscars FYC:
"THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
"SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
"SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
"TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
"FLEE" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
"LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design<p style=”text-align: left;”>https://media.tenor.com/images/68f04cc74afa63bdb6756eb43ec0c2b3/tenor.gif</p>
Trying to calculate the correlation.It’s already a day on date release and the studio behind is saying to people to watch it at HBO Max instead of “supporting the theaters”, and industry won’t like that. DGA already is blocking day on date releases.
Do you want me to draw it for you ?
I cant believe that this category went from being stacked as hell to complete mess very quick. Critical Underperformance during Festival run plays a Big Part I suppose
Definetly In:
Belfast, TPOTD
Looking Very Strong:
Spencer, Dune, The Lost Daughter
Underperforms, but still has a slight chance:
LNIS, The French Dispatch, The Humans
Late Breaker that I believe has a strong chance:
Macbeth, Nightmare Alley, Licrorice Pizza (?), Dont Look Up
Late Breaker that are doubtful to me:
West Side Story, House of Gucci
FYC-Nightmare Alley in All Categories (Best Picture, Guillermo Del Toro for Best Director, Bradley Cooper for Best Actor, Cate Blanchett for Best Actress, Rooney Mara for Best Supporting Actress, Richard Jenkins for Best Supporting Actor)
FYC-Last Night in Soho (Edgar Wright for Best Director, Thomasin McKenzie for Best Actress, Anya Taylor Joy for Best Supporting Actress, Edgar Wright and Krysty Wilson Cairns for Best Original Screenplay)
I don’t get why some people want to hate on a film just because it’ll be an awards contender. Like there’s nothing about Belfast that seems offensive or problematic, it looks like a well acted feel good film film made by someone with good intentions who might not be as creative as he thinks he is. I’m still not sure if I’ll tear up at it or roll my eyes at it. Is it gonna be better than The Power of the Dog or PTA’s new film, or a lot of films coming out soon? No. But I’m seeing a lot of people who’ve seen it say that it’s already become very special to them, and I think we should just try to be happy about that as film fans and not root against a film that other people love just because it may take awards from something we preferred.
I don’t think this is bias against “crowd-pleasing” films because I’ve loved plenty of crowd-pleasing films that either did or did not win BP.
For me it’s very simply that Belfast seems to fit a very clean mold: schmaltzy, cloying, apolitical despite being set in a highly politicized setting & somehow still projects this sense of serious self-importance — I don’t like such films for political reasons (see below). There are some cloying films that I still kinda love (Stepmom lol, IT’S GREAT!) But more importantly: that mold is the sort of mold I wish the Oscars were better than — and I think as of the last 2 years if not more (especially since Spotlight and Moonlight), I’ve been optimistic that AMPAS is getting better than it used to be. I don’t think it’s wrong to want better: there’s nothing wrong in my opinion with disliking that a film like Green Book has won (neatly encapsulated by Spike Lee) because it perpetuates harmful stereotypes and actively depoliticizes history.
In other words: it’s also OKAY to dislike a film on principle. I find it BIZARRE that a film with The Troubles in the background is so apolitical. Why? Because…Branagh is a British toadie who is clearly not radical enough to make a film that deals with things.
Then the other thing: the comparison with Roma that I’m sure Branagh also hates. But it’s an unavoidable comparison because it tells me what the director SEES in their own life as worthy of telling. I think Alfonso Cuaron is fucking BRILLIANT for making a film with his former maid as the protagonist. I felt so much for her and his focus on class felt SO GOOD and SO RIGHT. And that’s what I hope for the Oscar to reward?
This is not just a simple stan/hater thing. One can actually have principled, political reasons for disliking a seemingly inoffensive film because seemingly inoffensive films can often be…………offensive! There’s a shit ton of seemingly inoffensive films that perpetuate the white savior stereotype (just one example), The Help seems very inoffensive, still, and I do love the actors but two of them (Viola Davis and Bryce Dallas Howard) have said they wouldn’t make it today. There are reasons!
FYC:
Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse PlemonsI’m sure what I’ve said sounds sanctimonious as hell but I don’t need a film to scream POLITICS at me either (I despise Argo and Zero Dark Thirty because they scream all the wrong politics!) I don’t think Roma screamed politics at all, among many other films that I love.
But also — if this is my rationale, I know everybody else has their own! Some hate camp, some hate “social justice films”, some hate this or that. Everyone has their own principles :/ that’s just…true. Whether we love it or hate it, it’s just a fact that everybody brings themselves into a movie or any work of art. For me, King Richard sounds perfectly appropriately crowd-pleasing, Belfast hits all my buttons. I will advocate for Passing if Rebecca Hall does the book justice because I believe it is IMMENSELY important. What do I do? Throw away principles? Naw.
(Also I kinda love Jamie Dornan and it gives me no pleasure that he’s in this film lol, and ALSO — I’m predicting it anyway! It’s getting in! It’s a frontrunner! Wish it weren’t so but it is.)
FYC:
Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse PlemonsFor me, I would like to see a film with an artistic vision win Best Picture at the bare minimum. But ideally, I’d also like to see Best Picture winners be films that try new things and take risks and have a unique voice to add to film. I’d like this for nominees as well. This is why I’m against House of Gucci getting nominated. It just looks like a soulless corporate product (on top of looking like complete shit imo). Same goes for Don’t Look Up. Just give us more winners like Parasite and Moonlight
FYC
Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
Best Director: Jane Campion
Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World
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