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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 9)

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  • Vicki Leekx
    Joined:
    Aug 3rd, 2019
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    #1204459484

    Well it seems people are getting an awful lot from some stills…again. I’ll wait for the reviews.

    FYC:

    Zar Amir Ebrahimi - Holy Spider (Best Actress)
    Ana de Armas, Julianne Nicholson - Blonde (Best Actress, Supporting Actress)
    Samantha Morton - She Said (Best Supporting Actress)
    Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin (Best Supporting Actress)


    wolfali
    Joined:
    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204459495

    https://twitter.com/awards_watch/status/1437837083008135168?s=20 They look great and dark as expected. Please release the trailer ASAP.

    The Australian goddesses are coming!

    FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.


    Richie Rich
    Joined:
    Aug 6th, 2021
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    #1204459506

    https://twitter.com/awards_watch/status/1437837083008135168?s=20

    They look great and dark as expected. Please release the trailer ASAP.


     

    Darn it! Just when I thought I could remove Nightmare Alley from my cinematography predictions. Sigh


    Richie Rich
    Joined:
    Aug 6th, 2021
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    #1204459508

    Be hyped as much as you want but aside from Blanchett, i don’t see noms for Cooper and Mara.

    And your opinion is gospel? So that’s why we shouldn’t be hyped?


    Jacob "Oscar Boy" Boe
    Joined:
    Apr 20th, 2019
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    #1204459573

    https://twitter.com/awards_watch/status/1437837083008135168?s=20 They look great and dark as expected. Please release the trailer ASAP.

    HOLY. FUCKING. SHIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Top Ten 2022 Films:
    1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
    2. The Banshees of Inisherin
    3. The Fabelmans
    4. Avatar: The Way of Water
    5. All Quiet on the Western Front
    6. The Batman
    7. TÁR
    8. Top Gun: Maverick
    9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
    10. Women Talking


    Chitanda170
    Joined:
    Apr 1st, 2020
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    #1204459588

    Be hyped as much as you want but aside from Blanchett, i don’t see noms for Cooper and Mara.

    Blanchett seems like a supporting character, I don’t see a nomination for her either


    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204459640

    Do you think “Belfast” will be nominated in Original Screenplay or not? I remember that you said in another post that you consider the writing branch to be “writerly”, that’s why I’m asking. I haven’t seen “The French Dispatch” of course, but The New Yorker recreation is certainly more writerly (is that even a real word?).

    It is a word, but mmmmm yeah I think it can definitely be nominated, for a different reason. I think on the surface to be honest, even I might nominate Belfast because making a schmaltzy, apolitical film that I do not like may be a matter of principle for me—but making it work and successfully emotionally manipulating people (lol) is actually definitely an achievement that I often chalk up to the writing. Think of it as that best-selling novel that you don’t like but……you gotta admit that writer knows how to get people to buy their book! You know? Writers do tend to know that. BUT that also means I think Original Screenplay is more likely for Branagh than Directing.

    It can miss, because Original Screenplay is definitely THAT category where the writer’s branch will go for daring screenplays, but often the problem is that there’s so many wonderful original screenplays every year (the writers will love things like Titane e.g.!), there is a failure to coalesce around FIVE meaning one like Belfast can get in even if people don’t like it because writers are perfectly capable of begrudgingly admitting “mmmkay fine I mean…it does its manipulation well”.

    FYC:
    Everything Everywhere All At Once
    The Banshees of Inisherin
    Women Talking
    All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
    Joyland
    RRR
    Aftersun


    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204459655

    I’m predicting Branagh to miss the directing Oscar nomination even if he makes it in Critics Choice and DGA. I just don’t see the Academy’s directing branch be so compelled to nominate Branagh for this type of work (no it doesn’t have to do with the actor turned director bias).

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Decision to Leave
    Best Director: Park Chan-Wook Todd Field
    Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once
    Best Actor: Colin Farrell
    Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett, Tang Wei
    Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
    Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina Hoss


    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    Posts:
    #1204459659

    I won’t quote the stills again but HOLY SHIT Nightmare Alley looks good. WELCOME BACK GUILLERMO DEL TOROOOOOOOOOO!!!!

    What are these predicting Belfast acting nominations about? I’m reading the reviews and the praise is on the film itself and the direction. I don’t see raves for not one actor.

    There’s enough praise for Balfe in the reviews, she’s def the most singled out, c’mon she is! You can’t compare her to Stewart or Cumberbatch, she won’t be in the headlines, but in the texts she’s there.

    I personally hated the film, but I liked Dornan and Balfe? For me Dornan was better—but for the most part they really were in like…..some 1930s Hollywood musical LOL. They’re just very charming and great with what they’re given, that’s all it really is imo. I wouldn’t nominate either of them, but I’m predicting Balfe & Hinds as of now, and if Balfe stays in lead, she’ll be kicked out unless the film REALLY IS that strong with AMPAS.

    FYC:
    Everything Everywhere All At Once
    The Banshees of Inisherin
    Women Talking
    All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
    Joyland
    RRR
    Aftersun


    AmnistY21
    Joined:
    Jan 1st, 2018
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    Posts:
    #1204459674

    I’m predicting Branagh to miss the directing Oscar nomination even if he makes it in Critics Choice and DGA. I just don’t see the Academy’s directing branch be so compelled to nominate Branagh for this type of work (no it doesn’t have to do with the actor turned director bias).

    Didn’t he direct Artemis Fowl? Knowing how snobbish the Directors branch is he could totally miss.


    puck05
    Joined:
    Sep 21st, 2019
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    Posts:
    #1204459682

    Y’all would be dismissing Nightmare Alley if it was directed by Tim Burton…


    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204459693

    Didn’t he direct Artemis Fowl? Knowing how snobbish the Directors branch is he could totally miss.

    Yep he did. His past work has tainted his reputation. But more significant is that Belfast is not exactly the type of film the directors branch gravitates towards since it isn’t stylistic enough and borrows elements from other auteurs like Cuaron’s ROMA which has been compared endlessly I would not be surprised if the industry caught on to these comparisons as well. The directing of the film may not be viewed as bold either since the story structure leans on too conventional storytelling.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Decision to Leave
    Best Director: Park Chan-Wook Todd Field
    Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once
    Best Actor: Colin Farrell
    Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett, Tang Wei
    Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
    Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina Hoss


    Stefania
    Joined:
    Feb 22nd, 2021
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    Posts:
    #1204459704

    It is a word, but mmmmm yeah I think it can definitely be nominated, for a different reason. I think on the surface to be honest, even I might nominate Belfast because making a schmaltzy, apolitical film that I do not like may be a matter of principle for me—but making it work and successfully emotionally manipulating people (lol) is actually definitely an achievement that I often chalk up to the writing. Think of it as that best-selling novel that you don’t like but……you gotta admit that writer knows how to get people to buy their book! You know? Writers do tend to know that. BUT that also means I think Original Screenplay is more likely for Branagh than Directing. It can miss, because Original Screenplay is definitely THAT category where the writer’s branch will go for daring screenplays, but often the problem is that there’s so many wonderful original screenplays every year (the writers will love things like Titane e.g.!), there is a failure to coalesce around FIVE meaning one like Belfast can get in even if people don’t like it because writers are perfectly capable of begrudgingly admitting “mmmkay fine I mean…it does its manipulation well”.

    Interesting point of view. I think that Adapted Screenplay is easier to predict at this point because you can read or learn about the source material, and then you understand from the reviews if the job was well done. With Original Screenplay, on the other hand, it’s less obvious until you’ve actually seen the movie and even then different people can have different ideas of what is good writing. Anyway, I’m still hoping “The French Dispatch” gets a couple of nominations and some love. The Francophile in me is not giving up.


    SN
    Joined:
    Dec 7th, 2014
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    Posts:
    #1204459706

    I hope Nightmare Alley isn’t another Del Toro disappointment.


    mateil
    Joined:
    Aug 23rd, 2017
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    Posts:
    #1204459719

    At this point I’m starting to think the winner going to be one of the december non-festival films: Licorice, Don’t Look Up or Nightmare Alley. The former especially since I can see a “award one of the greatest directors of all time” building up for PTA.

    The fact is so far the strongest BP contenders right now are King Richard and Belfast. King Richard is going to be the Green Book/Argo crowd-pleaser with no director nomination of the year. I’m just not that confident that they will go for smth like this again so soon.  On one hand only four films won Best Picture without a director nomination, on the other hand two of them were in the last decade.  I also can’t see Belfast going further than Jojo Rabbit did, except maybe in terms of nominations.

    Dune and The Power of The Dog are the love/hate contenders. They will either be #1 or #10 for everyone.

     

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