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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 9)

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    crabbie
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    #1204459693

    Didn’t he direct Artemis Fowl? Knowing how snobbish the Directors branch is he could totally miss.

    Yep he did. His past work has tainted his reputation. But more significant is that Belfast is not exactly the type of film the directors branch gravitates towards since it isn’t stylistic enough and borrows elements from other auteurs like Cuaron’s ROMA which has been compared endlessly I would not be surprised if the industry caught on to these comparisons as well. The directing of the film may not be viewed as bold either since the story structure leans on too conventional storytelling.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    Stefania
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    #1204459704

    It is a word, but mmmmm yeah I think it can definitely be nominated, for a different reason. I think on the surface to be honest, even I might nominate Belfast because making a schmaltzy, apolitical film that I do not like may be a matter of principle for me—but making it work and successfully emotionally manipulating people (lol) is actually definitely an achievement that I often chalk up to the writing. Think of it as that best-selling novel that you don’t like but……you gotta admit that writer knows how to get people to buy their book! You know? Writers do tend to know that. BUT that also means I think Original Screenplay is more likely for Branagh than Directing. It can miss, because Original Screenplay is definitely THAT category where the writer’s branch will go for daring screenplays, but often the problem is that there’s so many wonderful original screenplays every year (the writers will love things like Titane e.g.!), there is a failure to coalesce around FIVE meaning one like Belfast can get in even if people don’t like it because writers are perfectly capable of begrudgingly admitting “mmmkay fine I mean…it does its manipulation well”.

    Interesting point of view. I think that Adapted Screenplay is easier to predict at this point because you can read or learn about the source material, and then you understand from the reviews if the job was well done. With Original Screenplay, on the other hand, it’s less obvious until you’ve actually seen the movie and even then different people can have different ideas of what is good writing. Anyway, I’m still hoping “The French Dispatch” gets a couple of nominations and some love. The Francophile in me is not giving up.

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    SN
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    #1204459706

    I hope Nightmare Alley isn’t another Del Toro disappointment.

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    mateil
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    #1204459719

    At this point I’m starting to think the winner going to be one of the december non-festival films: Licorice, Don’t Look Up or Nightmare Alley. The former especially since I can see a “award one of the greatest directors of all time” building up for PTA.

    The fact is so far the strongest BP contenders right now are King Richard and Belfast. King Richard is going to be the Green Book/Argo crowd-pleaser with no director nomination of the year. I’m just not that confident that they will go for smth like this again so soon.  On one hand only four films won Best Picture without a director nomination, on the other hand two of them were in the last decade.  I also can’t see Belfast going further than Jojo Rabbit did, except maybe in terms of nominations.

    Dune and The Power of The Dog are the love/hate contenders. They will either be #1 or #10 for everyone.

     

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    Stefania
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    #1204459724

    I don’t see a lot of people hating “The Power of the Dog” honestly…

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    crabbie
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    #1204459728

    I don’t see a lot of people hating “The Power of the Dog” honestly…

    it’s those people who cling on to the very first reactions of the film from Venice still😭

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    JV
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    #1204459737

    Nightmare Alley is dark and gritty, and the Vanity Fair article hinted that Del Toro will keep the tone of the novel. I don’t see this winning BP. I’m actually still skeptical of this being accessible enough to not alienate voters.

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    crabbie
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    #1204459746

    I am predicting PTA’s Licorice Pizza to be a very strong across the board contender that could win Best Picture out of the late breakers. There is concerns over the film embodying Inherent Vice or The Master, but Licorice Pizza seems to be much accessible in the vein of mood pieces that capture Hollywood and the bygone times like Boogie Nights meets Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.  There is even romance and political elements in the film that was shared among those who watched the trailer. Licorice Pizza looks extremely strong in Original Screenplay as an overdue Oscar for PTA which might be enough to win Best Picture. Director, Supporting Actor, and techs are also in play. Licorice Pizza has soaring potential.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    kaziz
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    #1204459752

    Dune and The Power of The Dog are the love/hate contenders. They will either be #1 or #10 for everyone.

    Literally nobody I’ve spoken to hates TPOTD! LB reviews I guess? It’s getting a better reception than Nomadland and Roma because people found those WAY too slow, and I actually know plenty of people who thought Nomadland was not a good film. TPOTD—this “polarizing” thing is such nonsense. There’s GREAT, GOOD, and MEH. That’s not……polarizing? It’s the thing that EVERY even-slightly-slow film gets—which included many of last year’s nominees.

    I genuinely think Belfast is more “polarizing” in that there are more “THIS IS BAD” reactions. Dune I dunno, but it’s certainly polarizing critics.

    To call something polarizing you need to have enough……on either end of the poles. Belfast can win People’s Choice and still be more polarizing—Jojo Rabbit was! Joker was!

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    mateil
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    #1204459758

    it’s those people who cling on to the very first reactions of the film from Venice still😭

    No, it’s just that absolutely everyone who has seen the movie and is in the oscar-predicting sphere says  “this is isn’t going to win Best Picture”, “I can see how people don’t like this” etc.

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    crabbie
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    #1204459768

    No, it’s just that absolutely everyone who has seen the movie and is in the oscar-predicting sphere says “this is isn’t going to win Best Picture”, “I can see how people don’t like this” etc.

    That’s just because it’s peoples opinions on what the Academy will choose as the Best Picture winner and they disagree on TPOTD being the one to take it. Many people couldn’t see Sound of Metal winning picture since it may have be too niche and subtle in its storytelling, but that didn’t really mean people hated it. I would say people hate Mank and Trial of Chicago 7 certainly bolstered a passionate hater coalition, but with TPOTD I have not seen such vehement animosity towards the film. If anything the film has a solidly strong support coalition already.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    NevadaR
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    #1204459773

    I am predicting PTA’s Licorice Pizza to be a very strong across the board contender that could win Best Picture out of the late breakers. There is concerns over the film embodying Inherent Vice or The Master, but Licorice Pizza seems to be much accessible in the vein of mood pieces that capture Hollywood and the bygone times like Boogie Nights meets Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. There is even romance and political elements in the film that was shared among those who watched the trailer. Licorice Pizza looks extremely strong in Original Screenplay as an overdue Oscar for PTA which might be enough to win Best Picture. Director, Supporting Actor, and techs are also in play. Licorice Pizza has soaring potential.

    I-

    I just can’t get over that title.

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    kaziz
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    #1204459775

    Nightmare Alley is dark and gritty, and the Vanity Fair article hinted that Del Toro will keep the tone of the novel. I don’t see this winning BP. I’m actually still skeptical of this being accessible enough to not alienate voters.

    No, it’s just that absolutely everyone who has seen the movie and is in the oscar-predicting sphere says “this is isn’t going to win Best Picture”, “I can see how people don’t like this” etc.

    We really, really, really need to come to grips with what “dark”, “accessible” even mean. I thought TPOTD would be a completely different movie—but no, you have people on here you have totally flipped their tune because it’s not…..inaccessible at all! It might be slower and might not be to someone’s liking but inaccessible? That just doesn’t make sense to me for this film, “inaccessible” is that word for super arthouse films that make zero sense to a lot of people, that’s not TPOTD :/

    And for whatever reason, people who come out and say “that’s not gonna be Oscar material” are still clinging to some very strangely notions of what Oscar material is. Ma Rainey and One Night in Miami sound more like “Oscar material” than Nomadland, The Irishman DEF sounds more like Oscar material than Parasite, La La Land more than Moonlight. It’s 2021, and we know things have…..changed! Why is it so hard to keep up with the times.

    I’ll say it again: I actually think the absolute reverse. TPOTD is almost…conventional by Oscar standards. It’s almost not shocking ENOUGH! Films in that kiiiiiinda vein used to win all the time in the 1990s and 2000s (many of them were lesser films but I’m talking about mood here).

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    crabbie
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    #1204459777

    I- I just can’t get over that title.

    I could see the Academy shutting out the film based on the title alone let’s hope they don’t💀

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    kaziz
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    #1204459779

    No, it’s just that absolutely everyone who has seen the movie and is in the oscar-predicting sphere says  “this is isn’t going to win Best Picture”, “I can see how people don’t like this” etc.

    Not absolutely everyone, nope. Clayton Davis—possibly the biggest advocate of “accessible movies—jumps off the top of my head as one pundit who said the exact opposite after watching it. Venice and first reactors truly prepared us for some OUTRAGEOUS film, and it’s not outrageous, it’s….a thinker.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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