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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 9)

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    kbc
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    #1204460206

    https://twitter.com/scottdmenzel/status/1437812157698088962

    Everyone talks about toxic fandom but what about toxic criticism? Apparently anyone who likes Wonder Woman 1984, Bohemian Rhapsody, Green Book, Hillbilly Elegy, Dear Evan Hansen, or Joker clearly couldn’t appreciate or enjoy those films because the powers of film Twitter said so.

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    wolfali
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    #1204460230

    What do you think of Branagh’s chances in Director with the BAFTA jury? I’ve been curious how the British bloc would respond to Belfast the most since if Belfast is suppose to be a Best Picture frontrunner, it should be a slam dunk nomination in BAFTA Best Picture with the general membership.

    I think Belfast will easily make best film, British film and original screenplay. It’s hard to say about how any of the actors will fare with the jury without having seen the film.

    Branagh in director however I don’t know. It’s a tricky one. On the one hand the film’s “socially relevant” premise could give him a leg up with a directing jury but on the other hand Belfast‘s reception seems to suggest it’s more of a crowdpleaser as a film than an arthouse auteur piece. So I can see a situation where the jury have expectations of seeing a “high brow” period piece but ultimately are underwhelmed and construe it as a vanity piece (which is something I think hurt Sorkin and – yes – Fincher with the jury last year). With its starry cast (Judi Dench is essentially the granny of the British film industry and Dornan is quite well known here) and high production values it looks on paper almost as if it’s a Hollywood film set in Belfast rather than a independent British/Irish one so if we see lots of independently driven stories make it onto the directing long-list, I think Belfast can easily miss out.

    That being said, whilst I am currently predicting an Oscar snub for him, I do think his chances at the Oscars are stronger than his at the BAFTAs (and stronger than Sorkin’s were last year) because Branagh is still quite well respected here (in spite of his recent – sometimes divisive – more “populist” films) and he’d probably have easily made the cut with the BAFTA membership voting.

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "FLEE" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design

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    wolfali
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    Then they should have used the word “non anglophone”. Campion is not European. There’s a strong European branch at the Directors branch that always keeps pushing European directors for nominations. Branagh, Almodovar and Sorrentino are the only Europeans in the race right now. Considering that the race might be too stacked for another Vinterberg/Pawel card, I think Branagh could be their push.

    Jane Campion is not European but her independent style of filmmaking is very well regarded on the European cinema scene. The Portrait of a LadyBright Star and Top of the Lake were all European projects.

    and the director branch loves when directors direct kids (Mortem Tyldun, Benh Zeitlin, Lee Isaac Chung, with the first two getting in without precursors)

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "FLEE" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design

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    Marcus.H
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    #1204460407

    That movie is problematic more due to ensemble stances than the director himself.

    On another note, I feel like we dismissed The French Dispatch too quick. Knowing we only had two (?) locks at this point the race is pretty much still wide open and late release has a high chance to miss (except Licrorice Pizza)

    No, The French Dispatch is NOT happening. Let’s not be skeptical about this one. It’s like saying Last Night in Soho might still have chances…

    Coen-Lynch-Fellini

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    kaziz
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    Campion is Kiwi but the film is also marked as primarily a UK production because it’s a joint BBC films + Netflix distributed production. Producers span UK, Australia, NZ but primarily UK.

    I don’t see that as…any different to Branagh lol. Neither are non-Anglophone countries or directors, they’ll have the “British bloc” but they’re def not the European breakouts we see, which are mostly not in English. I don’t get what’s so difficult to understand. Neither of them fulfill the trend of people like Vinterberg getting in, so…..either it’s no one or it’s someone (like Sorrentino or Almodovar).

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    wolfali
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    #1204460789

    With each passing day and each contender falling, I have a growing feeling The Worst Person in the World will be the Another Round of this season.

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "FLEE" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design

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    Anirudh Arun
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    #1204460836

    Th Nightmare Alley stills look really gorgeous. Especially these two:

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    Anirudh Arun
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    #1204460841

    Oscars 2022 is going to be unofficial The Murder on Orient Express reunion!!

     

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    mateil
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    #1204460848

    With each passing day and each contender falling, I have a growing feeling The Worst Person in the World will be the Another Round of this season.

    I think it might end up being far more than that. I can see it ending up with a Picture-Director-Actress-Screenplay nomination combo.

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    Elsa Korr
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    #1204460856

    I think it might end up being far more than that. I can see it ending up with a Picture-Director-Actress-Screenplay nomination combo.

    sad to say, but Reinsve is not happening. Neon already has Stewart to push and with a crowded category, She’s likely to miss.

     

    FYC-Nightmare Alley in All Categories (Best Picture, Guillermo Del Toro for Best Director, Bradley Cooper for Best Actor, Cate Blanchett for Best Actress, Rooney Mara for Best Supporting Actress, Richard Jenkins for Best Supporting Actor)

    FYC-Last Night in Soho (Edgar Wright for Best Director, Thomasin McKenzie for Best Actress, Anya Taylor Joy for Best Supporting Actress, Edgar Wright and Krysty Wilson Cairns for Best Original Screenplay)

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    wolfali
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    #1204460871

    I think it might end up being far more than that. I can see it ending up with a Picture-Director-Actress-Screenplay nomination combo.

    I’ll probably love Reinsve’s performance but with how stacked the competition is I don’t see it. I do think she can get in at BAFTA with the jury (I’ll have to see her performance first though) because she is getting standout notices but each of the top 11 in the predictions centre + Balfe have baitier roles than hers.

    I do agree director, screenplay and a potential 10th slot picture nomination are very possible.

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "FLEE" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design

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    wolfali
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    I have to say I’m stunned some are still considering In the Heights for anything. The film probably has even weaker chances than The Card CounterThe French Dispatch and Last Night in Soho lol. It came and went in buzz, has a racial controversy and with Dune and King Richard in play it’s going to be Warner Bros. third priority at best.

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "FLEE" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design

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    kbc
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    Feb 25th, 2016
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    #1204460881

    Hadn’t heard of this before

    Video – The 2022 Awards Season Fantasy Draft

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    KB93
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    Sep 8th, 2021
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    #1204460884

    *Removes High School Musical, I mean West Side Story from predictions  after watching that trailer*

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    The Oscarguy
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    Jan 11th, 2021
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    #1204460888

    I have to say I’m stunned some are still considering In the Heights for anything. The film probably has even weaker chances than The Card Counter, The French Dispatch and Last Night in Soho lol. It came and went in buzz, has a racial controversy and with Dune and King Richard in play it’s going to be Warner Bros. third priority at best.

    My major problen with In The Heights is (and always has been) the fact that it was never getting a lot of other nominations. It doesn’t even have a tech or acting nom that would keep it in the Oscar convo as a movie that is at least getting some nominations. It’s kind of destined to get zero. Even when some were heavily predicting it, they predicted it as a movie that would get Picture and not much else. And that can’t happen now.

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