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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 9)

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  • The Oscarguy
    Joined:
    Jan 11th, 2021
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    #1204460941

    The problem with <i>West Side Story</i> is I just don’t see anyone going to theatres to see this movie. The demographic that will be most interested in a remake of a 1960s musical (that although it has lots of flaws, especially when it comes to representation) skews old and I don’t think they’re going to rush to see this in theatres because of Covid. Now I’m sure one can argue that the box office won’t be as significant as it’s been in the past this year due to Covid and pretty much every film will under-perform in some way commercially. But this is not <i>The Eyes of Tammy Faye</i> or Respect. I’m sceptical about both of those films’ leads making it in because I don’t expect their films to stay in the conversation that long in this pandemic year but at least both Chastain and Hudson seem to have passion (and yes buzz) for their performances so they can theoretically survive the long season and get an actress nomination. West Side Story needs to stand out on its own like A Star is Born (2018) did IMO but unlike A Star is Born it doesn’t have Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga and it doesn’t have a contemporary setting.

    I slighlty disagree with Tammy Faye because Chastain’s pretty universally acclaimed and baity as hell performance will stay in the conversation no matter what. But that’s for another thread.

    I don’t see WSS being a big hit, In the Heights proved that musicals can be a tough sell for general audiences, usually they do well because of star power and catchy hit songs, WSS doesn’t have those. It has Spielberg but he’s had flops before too. And December is soo stacked, like man. And to me it still feels like a commercial player first and foremost.


    Stefania
    Joined:
    Feb 22nd, 2021
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    #1204460946

    I just watched the “West Side Story” trailer and I found it really weird. In my opinion Rachel Zegler looks too much like a teenager in a teen musical comedy to appeal to the older audiences that I thought might be the only ones to go watch this movie because they are nostalgic about “West Side Story” songs and numbers. Ansel Elgort looks like nothing worth spending money on and you see DeBose (who plays the most anticipated role in the musical) for just one moment. This movie might have worked 15 years ago, but I don’t see it carving out any spot with this cast plus the coronavirus pandemic right now. If it gets nominated I’d be surprised.


    SN
    Joined:
    Dec 7th, 2014
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    #1204461023

    The problem with <i>West Side Story</i> is I just don’t see anyone going to theatres to see this movie.

    I wouldn’t be so sure about that. It could be a perfect counterprogramming to Spider-Man and Matrix. Nobody expected The Greatest Showman to be a hit until it was.


    wolfali
    Joined:
    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204461034

    I slighlty disagree with Tammy Faye because Chastain’s pretty universally acclaimed and baity as hell performance will stay in the conversation no matter what. But that’s for another thread.

    Oh I don’t disagree that can happen and it’s why I brought up that at least there’s a factor going there that there isn’t for West Side Story.

    I wouldn’t be so sure about that. It could be a perfect counterprogramming to Spider-Man and Matrix. Nobody expected The Greatest Showman to be a hit until it was.

    The Greatest Showman wasn’t during a pandemic.

    FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.


    Elsa Korr
    Joined:
    Oct 16th, 2020
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    #1204461051

    I’m probably overthinking this, but I see so little actual hype for West Side Story, the just released trailer doesn’t have much views or likes. The most talk it gets relates to its Oscar chances because duh. I still think it has a huge uphill climb because it’s a remake of the most Oscar winning musical in history and Ansel Elgort. I know, I know. Doubt prestige Spielberg at your own peril. But I still feel so hesitant about its chances.

    Exactly what I’ve been saying about WSS. As a late “musical crowdpleaser” the buzz seems almost non-existent.

    and The Greatest Showman has Zac Effron and Zendaya to bust some seats in.

    FYC:
    Best Director: Edgar Wright, Guillermo Del Toro, Jane Campion
    Best Picture: Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
    Best Actress: Kristen Stewart, Thomasin McKenzie, Rooney Mara, Tessa Thompson
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Bradley Cooper
    Best S. Actress: Cate Blanchett, Diana Rigg, Anya Taylor Joy
    Best S. Actor: Kodi Smit McPhee, Willem Dafoe, Richard Jenkins


    Mstyler
    Joined:
    Jan 17th, 2019
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    #1204461054

    *No Spoilers just honest reactions*

    7/10

    Saw TPOTD today and it’s underwhelming for me as someone who has rooted for it these past few weeks. I didn’t believe those early reviews but hey, many will really feel bored because of the screenplay and pacing issues. As someone who has read the novel, I feel they safely transferred it to the big screen but failed to elevate it or capture the spirit & deep emotions lying in the story. That’s why I couldn’t get into any character and I feel emotionally-detached the entire time. It’s the opposite of what I experienced when watching “The Piano” and feeling so connected with Hunter/Paquin/Keitel in the film. “The Piano” is a 10/10 for me and “TPOTD” is a 7/10. Good but definitely not impressive.

    As for the award prospect:
    -Enough to win: direction, cinematography, and supporting actress (Dunst)
    -Enough to be nominated but not sure about win: BP, screenplay, editing, score (good but forgettable), leading actor (Cumberbatch doesn’t have many lines and “Oscars scenes.” God I want him to win an Oscars so badly…)
    -Not sure about nom: supporting actor (Smit-McPhee) (He’s more possible than Plemons but the performance is still not that strong.)

    Hope y’all enjoy it!


    irinacx
    Joined:
    Jan 20th, 2020
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    #1204461066

    *No Spoilers just honest reactions* 7/10 Saw TPOTD today and it’s underwhelming for me as someone who has rooted for it these past few weeks. I didn’t believe those early reviews but hey, general audience will really feel bored because of the screenplay and pacing issues. As someone who has read the novel, I feel they safely transferred it to the big screen but failed to elevate it or capture the spirit & deep emotions lying in the story. 

    Same! I pretty much agree with everything you said. I liked the book SO MUCH more. I also don’t see general audiences really liking this film (this doesn’t mean it won’t get nominated).

     


    irinacx
    Joined:
    Jan 20th, 2020
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    #1204461077

    I’m probably overthinking this, but I see so little actual hype for West Side Story, the just released trailer doesn’t have much views or likes. The most talk it gets relates to its Oscar chances because duh. I still think it has a huge uphill climb because it’s a remake of the most Oscar winning musical in history and Ansel Elgort. I know, I know. Doubt prestige Spielberg at your own peril. But I still feel so hesitant about its chances.

    The only hype I’ve seen so far is from the Rachel Zegler stans and there’s not that many of them


    SN
    Joined:
    Dec 7th, 2014
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    #1204461093

    The Greatest Showman wasn’t during a pandemic.

    Yes, but WSS doesn’t have to make Greatest Showman numbers to be successful.


    George Ehret
    Joined:
    Sep 3rd, 2019
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    #1204461108

    WSS really about too look stronger with some of these movies falling ain’t it

    FYC
    Everything Everywhere All at Once for everything, everywhere, all at once


    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204461120

    Pundits keep trying to make Rachel Zelger happen because she interacts with them on Twitter. It looks so forced and unnatural.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Decision to Leave
    Best Director: Park Chan-Wook Todd Field
    Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once
    Best Actor: Colin Farrell
    Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett, Tang Wei
    Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
    Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina Hoss


    Elsa Korr
    Joined:
    Oct 16th, 2020
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    #1204461131

    Zegler is as dead as Thomasin McKenzie is. Regardless of how her performance will be received, this year is just too crowded and please someone who has knowledge tell me whether her role is as good, if not better than Emma Stone in La La Land??

    She doesnt have the Globes to bolster her chance.

    FYC:
    Best Director: Edgar Wright, Guillermo Del Toro, Jane Campion
    Best Picture: Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
    Best Actress: Kristen Stewart, Thomasin McKenzie, Rooney Mara, Tessa Thompson
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Bradley Cooper
    Best S. Actress: Cate Blanchett, Diana Rigg, Anya Taylor Joy
    Best S. Actor: Kodi Smit McPhee, Willem Dafoe, Richard Jenkins


    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204461138

    Same! I pretty much agree with everything you said. I liked the book SO MUCH more. I also don’t see general audiences really liking this film (this doesn’t mean it won’t get nominated).

    From literally everything I can tell….nobody has watched the same film, whether they liked it or loved it. It’s SO WEIRD. I actually think it’s a LOT like the book in that there’s so so so many strands I kept thinking about, and I’ve talked to so many people now: a LOT more of the book is in there than it seems. I reaaaaaaally wish the film was LONGER lol but all performances were….clearly pulling from the multiple interpretations of the novel.

    TL;DR: I can’t predict what any one person would think let alone general audiences.

    I feel like all 4 actors used the novel far more than the screenplay to prepare.

    @emmastoner @kb93, no? Doesn’t it feel like all the stuff we talked about goes well beyond…the screenplay?

    FYC:
    Everything Everywhere All At Once
    The Banshees of Inisherin
    Women Talking
    All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
    Joyland
    RRR
    Aftersun


    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204461145

    @crabbie @kb93, no? Doesn’t it feel like all the stuff we talked about goes well beyond…the screenplay?

    Are you referring to the performances?

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Decision to Leave
    Best Director: Park Chan-Wook Todd Field
    Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once
    Best Actor: Colin Farrell
    Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett, Tang Wei
    Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
    Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina Hoss


    Stank83
    Joined:
    Mar 8th, 2020
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    #1204461210

    Underestimate West Side Story as the 10th BP nominee at your own risk and peril.

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