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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 9)

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    KB93
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    #1204460884

    *Removes High School Musical, I mean West Side Story from predictions  after watching that trailer*

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    The Oscarguy
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    #1204460888

    I have to say I’m stunned some are still considering In the Heights for anything. The film probably has even weaker chances than The Card Counter, The French Dispatch and Last Night in Soho lol. It came and went in buzz, has a racial controversy and with Dune and King Richard in play it’s going to be Warner Bros. third priority at best.

    My major problen with In The Heights is (and always has been) the fact that it was never getting a lot of other nominations. It doesn’t even have a tech or acting nom that would keep it in the Oscar convo as a movie that is at least getting some nominations. It’s kind of destined to get zero. Even when some were heavily predicting it, they predicted it as a movie that would get Picture and not much else. And that can’t happen now.

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    Richie Rich
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    #1204460890

    No, The French Dispatch is NOT happening. Let’s not be skeptical about this one. It’s like saying Last Night in Soho might still have chances…

    We get it. You’re not rooting for The French Dispatch but saying it has the same chance as Last Night in Soho is just plain delusional. Sorry. TFD is sitting at a cool metascore of 82 while LNIS is sinking with a metascore of 67. Plus Wes Anderson’s last 4 films have all received Academy recognition. His last two live action films both received original screenplay nominations while his last two animated films were both nominated for Best Animated Feature. Edgar Wright has never clicked with the Academy and that alone makes your point of them currently having the same chance lacking logic. Plus Wes Anderson got an original screenplay nomination for The Royal Tenenbaums a film with worse critics scores than French Dispatch and a film with which critics also complained that it had empty characters and no general plot. An original screenplay nomination is totally still in the cards along with a Best Picture nomination in a year of ten nominees and it will help that TFD is probably going to a couple of technical nominations like Production Design unlike LNIS.

    I’m not saying French Dispatch is a lock in any category but it has a good chance of being nominated unlike Last Night in Soho which is most likely ending up with zero nominations. So saying both films have the same chance is a bit misguided.

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    The Oscarguy
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    #1204460892

    I’m probably overthinking this, but I see so little actual hype for West Side Story, the just released trailer doesn’t have much views or likes. The most talk it gets relates to its Oscar chances because duh.

    I still think it has a huge uphill climb because it’s a remake of the most Oscar winning musical in history and Ansel Elgort. I know, I know. Doubt prestige Spielberg at your own peril. But I still feel so hesitant about its chances.

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    The Oscarguy
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    #1204460907

    I do find it interesting that many directors seem to have “passion projects” this year. Villeneuve, Branagh, Spielberg.

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    wolfali
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    #1204460915

    The problem with <i>West Side Story</i> is I just don’t see anyone going to theatres to see this movie. The demographic that will be most interested in a remake of a 1960s musical (that although it has lots of flaws, especially when it comes to representation) skews old and I don’t think they’re going to rush to see this in theatres because of Covid.

    Now I’m sure one can argue that the box office won’t be as significant as it’s been in the past this year due to Covid and pretty much every film will under-perform in some way commercially. But this is not <i>The Eyes of Tammy Faye</i> or Respect. I’m sceptical about both of those films’ leads making it in because I don’t expect their films to stay in the conversation that long in this pandemic year but at least both Chastain and Hudson seem to have passion (and yes buzz) for their performances so they can theoretically survive the long season and get an actress nomination.

    West Side Story needs to stand out on its own like A Star is Born (2018) did IMO but unlike A Star is Born it doesn’t have Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga and it doesn’t have a contemporary setting.

    Oscars FYC:
    "Shiva Baby" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "Together" – in all categories especially Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "CODA" – in all categories especially Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur)
    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Supporting Actor (Richard E. Grant), Supporting Actress (Sarah Lancashire)
    "I'm Your Man" – International Feature
    "Summer of Soul" – Documentary Feature

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    The Oscarguy
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    #1204460941

    The problem with <i>West Side Story</i> is I just don’t see anyone going to theatres to see this movie. The demographic that will be most interested in a remake of a 1960s musical (that although it has lots of flaws, especially when it comes to representation) skews old and I don’t think they’re going to rush to see this in theatres because of Covid. Now I’m sure one can argue that the box office won’t be as significant as it’s been in the past this year due to Covid and pretty much every film will under-perform in some way commercially. But this is not <i>The Eyes of Tammy Faye</i> or Respect. I’m sceptical about both of those films’ leads making it in because I don’t expect their films to stay in the conversation that long in this pandemic year but at least both Chastain and Hudson seem to have passion (and yes buzz) for their performances so they can theoretically survive the long season and get an actress nomination. West Side Story needs to stand out on its own like A Star is Born (2018) did IMO but unlike A Star is Born it doesn’t have Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga and it doesn’t have a contemporary setting.

    I slighlty disagree with Tammy Faye because Chastain’s pretty universally acclaimed and baity as hell performance will stay in the conversation no matter what. But that’s for another thread.

    I don’t see WSS being a big hit, In the Heights proved that musicals can be a tough sell for general audiences, usually they do well because of star power and catchy hit songs, WSS doesn’t have those. It has Spielberg but he’s had flops before too. And December is soo stacked, like man. And to me it still feels like a commercial player first and foremost.

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    Stefania
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    #1204460946

    I just watched the “West Side Story” trailer and I found it really weird. In my opinion Rachel Zegler looks too much like a teenager in a teen musical comedy to appeal to the older audiences that I thought might be the only ones to go watch this movie because they are nostalgic about “West Side Story” songs and numbers. Ansel Elgort looks like nothing worth spending money on and you see DeBose (who plays the most anticipated role in the musical) for just one moment. This movie might have worked 15 years ago, but I don’t see it carving out any spot with this cast plus the coronavirus pandemic right now. If it gets nominated I’d be surprised.

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    SN
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    #1204461023

    The problem with <i>West Side Story</i> is I just don’t see anyone going to theatres to see this movie.

    I wouldn’t be so sure about that. It could be a perfect counterprogramming to Spider-Man and Matrix. Nobody expected The Greatest Showman to be a hit until it was.

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    wolfali
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    #1204461034

    I slighlty disagree with Tammy Faye because Chastain’s pretty universally acclaimed and baity as hell performance will stay in the conversation no matter what. But that’s for another thread.

    Oh I don’t disagree that can happen and it’s why I brought up that at least there’s a factor going there that there isn’t for West Side Story.

    I wouldn’t be so sure about that. It could be a perfect counterprogramming to Spider-Man and Matrix. Nobody expected The Greatest Showman to be a hit until it was.

    The Greatest Showman wasn’t during a pandemic.

    Oscars FYC:
    "Shiva Baby" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "Together" – in all categories especially Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "CODA" – in all categories especially Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur)
    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Supporting Actor (Richard E. Grant), Supporting Actress (Sarah Lancashire)
    "I'm Your Man" – International Feature
    "Summer of Soul" – Documentary Feature

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    Elsa Korr
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    Oct 16th, 2020
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    #1204461051

    I’m probably overthinking this, but I see so little actual hype for West Side Story, the just released trailer doesn’t have much views or likes. The most talk it gets relates to its Oscar chances because duh. I still think it has a huge uphill climb because it’s a remake of the most Oscar winning musical in history and Ansel Elgort. I know, I know. Doubt prestige Spielberg at your own peril. But I still feel so hesitant about its chances.

    Exactly what I’ve been saying about WSS. As a late “musical crowdpleaser” the buzz seems almost non-existent.

    and The Greatest Showman has Zac Effron and Zendaya to bust some seats in.

    FYC-Nightmare Alley in All Categories (Best Picture, Guillermo Del Toro for Best Director, Bradley Cooper for Best Actor, Cate Blanchett for Best Actress, Rooney Mara for Best Supporting Actress, Richard Jenkins for Best Supporting Actor)

    FYC-Last Night in Soho (Edgar Wright for Best Director, Thomasin McKenzie for Best Actress, Anya Taylor Joy for Best Supporting Actress, Edgar Wright and Krysty Wilson Cairns for Best Original Screenplay)

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    Mstyler
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    Jan 17th, 2019
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    #1204461054

    *No Spoilers just honest reactions*

    7/10

    Saw TPOTD today and it’s underwhelming for me as someone who has rooted for it these past few weeks. I didn’t believe those early reviews but hey, many will really feel bored because of the screenplay and pacing issues. As someone who has read the novel, I feel they safely transferred it to the big screen but failed to elevate it or capture the spirit & deep emotions lying in the story. That’s why I couldn’t get into any character and I feel emotionally-detached the entire time. It’s the opposite of what I experienced when watching “The Piano” and feeling so connected with Hunter/Paquin/Keitel in the film. “The Piano” is a 10/10 for me and “TPOTD” is a 7/10. Good but definitely not impressive.

    As for the award prospect:
    -Enough to win: direction, cinematography, and supporting actress (Dunst)
    -Enough to be nominated but not sure about win: BP, screenplay, editing, score (good but forgettable), leading actor (Cumberbatch doesn’t have many lines and “Oscars scenes.” God I want him to win an Oscars so badly…)
    -Not sure about nom: supporting actor (Smit-McPhee) (He’s more possible than Plemons but the performance is still not that strong.)

    Hope y’all enjoy it!

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    irinacx
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    #1204461066

    *No Spoilers just honest reactions* 7/10 Saw TPOTD today and it’s underwhelming for me as someone who has rooted for it these past few weeks. I didn’t believe those early reviews but hey, general audience will really feel bored because of the screenplay and pacing issues. As someone who has read the novel, I feel they safely transferred it to the big screen but failed to elevate it or capture the spirit & deep emotions lying in the story. 

    Same! I pretty much agree with everything you said. I liked the book SO MUCH more. I also don’t see general audiences really liking this film (this doesn’t mean it won’t get nominated).

     

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    irinacx
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    #1204461077

    I’m probably overthinking this, but I see so little actual hype for West Side Story, the just released trailer doesn’t have much views or likes. The most talk it gets relates to its Oscar chances because duh. I still think it has a huge uphill climb because it’s a remake of the most Oscar winning musical in history and Ansel Elgort. I know, I know. Doubt prestige Spielberg at your own peril. But I still feel so hesitant about its chances.

    The only hype I’ve seen so far is from the Rachel Zegler stans and there’s not that many of them

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    SN
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    #1204461093

    The Greatest Showman wasn’t during a pandemic.

    Yes, but WSS doesn’t have to make Greatest Showman numbers to be successful.

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