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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 9)

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    Michael Windfeldt
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    Nov 22nd, 2013
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    #1204451587

    I don’t understand why it’s such a big deal that Chloe Zhao might hand the Oscar to Jane Campion? What matters for me is the story and the way the director can master different aspects of the film making process.

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    wolfali
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    #1204451610

    Speaking of Letterboxd.

    Letterboxd ratings of Venice and Telluride films thus far (bold signifies films also showing at TIFF):

    1. The Hand of God – 4.1
    2. C’mon C’mon – 3.9
    2. Dune – 3.9
    4. Last Night in Soho – 3.8
    5. Official Competition – 3.7
    5. Red Rocket – 3.7
    5. Spencer – 3.7
    8. A Hero – 3.6
    8. The French Dispatch – 3.6
    8. The Power of the Dog – 3.6

    11. King Richard – 3.5
    12. The Card Counter – 3.4
    12. The Electrical Life of Louis Wain – 3.4
    12. Parallel Mothers – 3.4
    15. Belfast – 3.3
    15. The Lost Daughter – 3.3

    17. Cyrano – 3.1

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "FLEE" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design

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    crabbie
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    #1204451621

    Is it possible Maggie Gyllenhaal’s Venice Best Screenplay award could override the actor to director Oscar bias the directors branch has? The Lost Daughter seems to be quite of a passion project for her with its themes of motherhood resonating with her own experiences. But more important her screenplay award is quite prestigious and heavy in award changes especially when the jury contains two previous Best Director Oscar winners. Previous actor turned directors lacked such a prestigious award when it came to voting season.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    The Oscarguy
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    #1204451624

    Speaking of Letterboxd. Letterboxd ratings of Venice and Telluride films thus far (bold signifies films also showing at TIFF): 1. The Hand of God – 4.1 2. C’mon C’mon – 3.9 2. Dune – 3.9 4. Last Night in Soho – 3.8 5. Official Competition – 3.7 5. Red Rocket – 3.7 5. Spencer – 3.7 8. A Hero – 3.6 8. The French Dispatch – 3.6 8. The Power of the Dog – 3.6 11. King Richard – 3.5 12. The Card Counter – 3.4 12. The Electrical Life of Louis Wain – 3.4 12. Parallel Mothers – 3.4 15. Belfast – 3.3 15. The Lost Daughter – 3.3 17. Cyrano – 3.1

    I am shocked by that low Belfast score.

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    gorman
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    #1204451629

    Letterboxd ratings of Venice and Telluride films thus far  

    It’s a bit of a shame some of these aren’t playing TIFF. The Audience Award would be a bit more interesting ahead of the event if the likes of The Hand of God, C’mon C’mon and King Richard were competing. I think Hand of God will really crowd-please, though. It will need to get the audience but I think it definitely will among voters at least given it will be nominated for International Film. It seems broadly loved despite the slightly reserved critical reception. I still think it’s gonna break out above the line and may be one of a few International films to do so alongside Parallel Mothers and The Worst Person in the World.

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    gorman
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    #1204451632

    I am shocked by that low Belfast score.

    It has only been logged by 79 users, which is way below most on this list. I think people are expecting a relatively lukewarm critical reception and then a major breakout with bigger audiences at TIFF. I’d guess it ends up around 3.8-4.0 once there are c. 5000 logs.

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    The Oscarguy
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    #1204451636

    It has only been logged by 79 users, which is way below most on this list. I think people are expecting a relatively lukewarm critical reception and then a major breakout with bigger audiences at TIFF. I’d guess it ends up around 3.8-4.0 once there are c. 5000 logs.

    Oh that’s definitely expecting the score to het higher. Still surprised it’s that low though.

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204451643

    Is it possible Maggie Gyllenhaal’s Venice Best Screenplay award could override the actor to director Oscar bias the directors branch has? The Lost Daughter seems to be quite of a passion project for her with its themes of motherhood resonating with her own experiences. But more important her screenplay award is quite prestigious and heavy in award changes especially when the jury contains two previous Best Director Oscar winners. Previous actor turned directors lacked such a prestigious award when it came to voting season.

    I think the film being what it is, BP is amazing and I do think it should be getting in, but Adapted Screenplay, Actress, and Supporting Actress are the most likely (except I still can’t tell if it’s Buckley or Johnson or both. They’ve both gotten SUCH good reviews that it might default to Buckley solely because she’s more “respectable” but by all accounts Johnson’s awesome too and she’s interacting with Colman and all the other actors & it’s by no means an easy role)

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    crabbie
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    #1204451650

    I think the film being what it is, BP is amazing and I do think it should be getting in, but Adapted Screenplay, Actress, and Supporting Actress are the most likely (except I still can’t tell if it’s Buckley or Johnson or both. They’ve both gotten SUCH good reviews that it might default to Buckley solely because she’s more “respectable” but by all accounts Johnson’s awesome too and she’s interacting with Colman and all the other actors & it’s by no means an easy role)

    Director is wishful thinking but I say she has a GREAT chance getting in adapted. Rooting for Gyllenhaal

    This is so touching too:

    Jake Gyllenhaal reacts to sister Maggie Gyllenhaal’s #VeniceFilmFestival win: “I was crying watching her speech at Venice, it was two minutes ago. I love her, I don’t know… I’m just so proud of her.” bit.ly/3nqviT4

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    Viridiana
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    Dec 27th, 2019
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    #1204451676

    The biggest hurdle for Gyllenhaal is the Writers Guild with so many late breakers in Adapted. I don’t know if TLD is even eligible there.

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    Donnna
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    Feb 11th, 2021
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    #1204451678

    Netflix better campaign properly for both Colman and Gyllenhaal.

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204451689

    This is an aside from The Lost Daughter (ROOTING FOR IT!!!), but I did not expect to and this did happen: I definitely welled up with tears twice in The Power of the Dog. Like, desperate-release tears. It was very visceral. Man, that whole ensemble…Campion…Wegner, Greenwood. Everything is so good.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    Stefania
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    Feb 22nd, 2021
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    #1204451747

    In 3 days I changed my fifth BD spot from Mackay to Larraín to Sorrentino. And it could change again, I’m sure. I was skeptical before the trailer about this movie, because Sorrentino is hit or miss for me, but it seems to be a heartfelt movie that touches people. It has many of the same elements that <i>Belfast</i> has: it’s a passion project displaying the director’s roots and traumas in his homeland in a way that he’s never done before, but the secret sauce is Naples I think! Somehow I give it an edge above Branagh, but I could change my mind tomorrow.

    In Best Picture there are up to 4 Netflix movies that could get in: TPOTD is a lock, DLU is very likely (even though that trailer….uhm) and then maybe you could have one between “The Hand of God” and “The Last Daughter”, but which one??? I think directors are more likely to vote for an international feature rather than the rest of the Academy, so for now I have “The Lost Daughter”, even though it has its detractors (but hey, Belfast has detractors too)…

    Finally, I’m holding on to the odds just in case LNIS does surprisingly well in TIFF. It’s probably not gonna happen, but who knows! Better safe than sorry and otherwise I have to put “West Side Story” or “House of Gucci” in…

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    AwardsNerd
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    Jul 24th, 2021
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    #1204451756

    Definitely can’t see Power of The Dog not walking away with a few awards. Well earned!

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204451766

    In Best Picture there are up to 4 Netflix movies that could get in: TPOTD is a lock, DLU is very likely (even though that trailer….uhm) and then maybe you could have one between “The Hand of God” and “The Last Daughter”, but which one??? I think directors are more likely to vote for an international feature rather than the rest of the Academy, so for now I have “The Lost Daughter”, even though it has its detractors (but hey, Belfast has detractors too)…

    I think it’ll be The Lost Daughter instead of THOG because The Lost Daughter is probably bringing at least one actress (ideally, all 3) in as well. It’s gonna be interesting to see how Passing does, because The Lost Daughter vs. Passing is not a fight either of them want to have lol.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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