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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 9)

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  • Profile picture
    NevadaR
    Joined:
    Jan 13th, 2018
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    #1204464200

    I really thought GDT was the only one who could challenge Campion.

    Anyway, congrats to her.

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204464230

    National Board of Review has shifted their nominations announcement date back to the regular: Nov 30th

    Also: “NBR said today that 2021 films will be eligible if screened either in a theater or digitally on or before Sunday, November 28.”

    That takes out pretty much all the late films: DLU, HoG, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story and others I’m forgetting right now. NBR means screened for the public, so late release films that played festivals are fine, but private LA screenings won’t cut it.

    E.g.: The Irishman was late but it played NYFF so it was fine.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    Film expert
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    Dec 6th, 2019
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    #1204464242

    After I have seen the trailer I don´s see Nightmare Alley as big contender, for sure it will get some craft ones but over the line? Nah, It´s more like Crimson Peak than Shape of Water.

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    JV
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    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1204464245

    Can we just STOP the “too dark and gritty” nonsense please? If Belfast, TPOTD, Nightmare Alley are top 3, those are basically 3 completely different GENRES. Like……….. it’s so silly. Being dark didn’t stop TPOTD from being the highest rated film BY NON-CRITICS & NON-PUNDITS from Telluride.

    Condescending to “average people” will continue to backfire. Don’t do it.

    You literally said the other day that The Power of the Dog wasn’t dark as everyone was saying.

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204464251

    You literally said the other day that The Power of the Dog wasn’t dark as everyone was saying.

    Mmm no I said it wasn’t polarizing or inaccessible. It’s plenty dark. The Shape of Water was dark. I don’t think “dark” matters.

    If I said it, feel free to quote me and I’ll take the L, but it makes no sense to say TPOTD is not dark :/

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    Stefania
    Joined:
    Feb 22nd, 2021
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    #1204464255

    Please, Guillermo del Toro is not gritty. This whole trailer seems to happen outside of the real world. I wasn’t a big fan of “The Shape of Water” but I must recognize that del Toro knows how to craft striking visuals. This is transporting and it will not be too dark for the Academy in my opinion.

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    Film expert
    Joined:
    Dec 6th, 2019
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    #1204464258

    And btw,the common misconception around this film that Cate Blanchett is lead is so widespread and so wrong lol

    Of course everybody who knows source material or previous adaptation knows that it´s not the case, but for some reason, general film audience for this film belives she is the lead.

    Apparently, from what I heard Cate filmed her part in 2 weeks, it´s not big (although it´s important) part.

     

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204464260

    Please, Guillermo del Toro is not gritty. This whole trailer seems to happen outside of the real world. I wasn’t a big fan of “The Shape of Water” but I must recognize that del Toro knows how to craft striking visuals. This is transporting and it will not be too dark for the Academy in my opinion.

    I agree with you, but also: what is so wrong with being dark?!? Audiences pack in to watch brutal slashers every other week, del Toro’s worlds imo are dark but they’re also fantastical. I can understand the argument for “too slow”, but I really don’t get “too dark”. Hell, Hitchcock was dark. Scorsese is often dark-but-thoughtful, Tarantino is dark-and-grandiose. Is there a synonym for dark that might be more suitable bc I’m not getting it.

    The Shape of Water is more accessible than, say, Pan’s Labyrinth *of course* but hoooo boy think about it for 2 seconds and it’s…….dark!

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    Tick Tock
    Joined:
    Jul 27th, 2021
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    Posts:
    #1204464262

    And btw,the common misconception around this film that Cate Blanchett is lead is so widespread and so wrong lol

    Of course everybody who knows source material or previous adaptation knows that it´s not the case, but for some reason, general film audience for this film belives she is the lead.

    Apparently, from what I heard Cate filmed her part in 2 weeks, it´s not big (although it´s important) part.

    You’re right but apparently there has been some pundit heard that Searchlight was planning a lead campaign for Blanchett to make way for Mara/Toni in supporting. That could be false news but that’s what is making everybody put Blanchett in leading.

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    Film expert
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    Dec 6th, 2019
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    #1204464266

    It would be huge fraud, in the opposite than usual direction yeah, but still.

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    Arman Saxena
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    Jul 24th, 2017
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    #1204464269

    lol what. Nightmare Alley trailer screams neo-noir.

    I agree that on the whole it is undoubtedly neo-noir but I was just saying that it was giving me more action-y vibes than I was expecting with the car running over someone and Bradley Cooper constantly sprinting (or being chased).

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    Stank83
    Joined:
    Mar 8th, 2020
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    #1204464275

    The problem here is not it will be “too dark” but “too Del Toro”, too out there, weird and unappealing to voters.

    Unlike TSoW which felt more joyful and lighter, and had relevant themes that connected with The Academy, this one feels just his exercise into the noir genre with nothing to say.

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204464281

    It would be huge fraud, in the opposite than usual direction yeah, but still.

    I didn’t know about the 2 weeks filming but I feel like I’m repeating for the millionth time: del Toro’s adaptation is not the whole book, it’s some slice of it, thus the logline “ambitious young con-man who hooks up with a female psychiatrist who is even more corrupt than he is. At first, they enjoy success fleecing people with their mentalist act, but then she turns the table on him, out-manipulating the manipulator.”:

    My adaptation that I’ve done with [co-writer] Kim Morgan is not necessarily — the entire book is impossible, it’s a saga. But there are elements that are darker in the book, and it’s the first chance I have — in my short films, I wanted to do noir. It was horror and noir. And now is the first chance I have to do a real ‘underbelly of society’ type of movie. [There are] no supernatural elements. Just a straight, really dark story.”

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    Stefania
    Joined:
    Feb 22nd, 2021
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    Posts:
    #1204464283

    I agree with you, but also: what is so wrong with being dark?!? Audiences pack in to watch brutal slashers every other week, del Toro’s worlds imo are dark but they’re also fantastical. I can understand the argument for “too slow”, but I really don’t get “too dark”. Hell, Hitchcock was dark. Scorsese is often dark-but-thoughtful, Tarantino is dark-and-grandiose. Is there a synonym for dark that might be more suitable bc I’m not getting it.

    Totally! There seems to be this assumption that now only Pollyanna pictures can be successful.

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    Posts:
    #1204464285

    The problem here is not it will be “too dark” but “too Del Toro”, too out there, weird and unappealing to voters.

    Unlike TSoW which felt more joyful and lighter, and had themes that connected with The Academy, this one feels just his exercise into the noir genre with nothing to say.

    Okay ya that makes more sense. This seems more horror but also less weird actually (compared to FISH SEX) so I dunno how those balance out but this makes more sense to me.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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