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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 9)

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    kbc
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    Feb 25th, 2016
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    #1204451778

    I think it’ll be The Lost Daughter instead of THOG because The Lost Daughter is probably bringing at least one actress (ideally, all 3) in as well. It’s gonna be interesting to see how Passing does, because The Lost Daughter vs. Passing is not a fight either of them want to have lol.

    The odds of The Lost Daughter getting two acting nominations seem to be improving.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204451789

    Definitely can’t see Power of The Dog not walking away with a few awards. Well earned!

    Director (I wished it was Denis but he has Part 2)

    Supporting Actress

    Not sure about Picture. I don’t feel it.

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    Stefania
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    Feb 22nd, 2021
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    #1204451803

    I think it’ll be The Lost Daughter instead of THOG because The Lost Daughter is probably bringing at least one actress (ideally, all 3) in as well. It’s gonna be interesting to see how Passing does, because The Lost Daughter vs. Passing is not a fight either of them want to have lol.

    Yes, you’re right. That has to be taken into account. Do we agree that Netflix is not going to have more than 3 movies in Best Picture? Or maybe <i>Don’t Look Up</i> is going to be just another commercial movie and we will move on…

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    crabbie
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    #1204451828

    I see The Lost Daughter getting more likely to be nominated in Best Picture than Spencer. The Venice Screenplay win for TLD was quite huge I’d say and Spencer’s shutout could possibly hint to an industry apathy to the film that has been hinted for a while. I’m not confident in this prediction at all but if Spencer doesn’t make it in top 3 of TIFF People Choice I’ll be more confident TLD edges Spencer out.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    Elsa Korr
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    Oct 16th, 2020
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    #1204451837

    I see The Lost Daughter getting more likely to be nominated in Best Picture than Spencer. The Venice Screenplay win for TLD was quite huge I’d say and Spencer’s shutout could possibly hint to an industry apathy to the film that has been hinted for a while. I’m not confident in this prediction at all but if Spencer doesn’t make it in top 3 of TIFF People Choice I’ll be more confident TLD edges Spencer out.

    So its 2019 all over again? Except this time around Netflix better campaign their ass off not only for the noms but the win also. Their noms to win ratio are abysimal

    FYC:
    Best Director: Edgar Wright, Guillermo Del Toro, Jane Campion
    Best Picture: Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
    Best Actress: Kristen Stewart, Thomasin McKenzie, Rooney Mara, Tessa Thompson
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Bradley Cooper
    Best S. Actress: Cate Blanchett, Diana Rigg, Anya Taylor Joy
    Best S. Actor: Kodi Smit McPhee, Willem Dafoe, Richard Jenkins

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    wolfali
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    #1204451839

    I think both Dune and Spencer are at risk of not making it into the top 3 at TIFF. Don’t “special events” (not special presentations) usually have a harder time of making a dent in the vote?

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, Shiva Baby, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall, Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, Winston Duke/James McAvoy
    Actress: Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant, Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby

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    crabbie
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    #1204451846

    So its 2019 all over again? Except this time around Netflix better campaign their ass off not only for the noms but the win also. Their noms to win ratio are abysimal

    I know people are unconfident in Netflix getting 3 films in but…three Netflix films literally won an award from Venice. All major awards. Ma Rainey, The Two Popes were filler nominations. Nobody really felt passionate about their films and they didn’t come out with a major festival award.

    TPOTD is safely getting in followed by Don’t Look Up. And I think the third Netflix slot would be between The Hand of God and The Lost Daughter.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    loudtoilet
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    Feb 19th, 2020
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    #1204451849

    Venice isn’t be all and end all. What’s next, touting Gotham as the reliable predictor?

    Please no crying if Spencer misses TIFF Audience Award. They never go for movies such as Spencer anyway.

    But if Spencer and Kristen lost AACTRA (sp? that Aussie award that was so big on GD last year) well then it’s over. 🙂

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    SN
    Joined:
    Dec 7th, 2014
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    #1204451857

    I wish The Hand of God isn’t the frontrunner in International Feature and I hope it doesn’t get any nomination above the line.

    Sorry, Paolo Sorrentino is simply not my thing.

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    crabbie
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    #1204451863

    Venice isn’t the end be all, but an “artsy” film that appeals to the auteur sensibilities at film festivals surely should have received one award at Venice especially when that jury features two Oscar winning directors. I’m not ruling out Spencer but this could be a possible sigh of the film underperforming at nominations.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    kbc
    Joined:
    Feb 25th, 2016
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    #1204451871

    I see The Lost Daughter getting more likely to be nominated in Best Picture than Spencer. The Venice Screenplay win for TLD was quite huge I’d say and Spencer’s shutout could possibly hint to an industry apathy to the film that has been hinted for a while. I’m not confident in this prediction at all but if Spencer doesn’t make it in top 3 of TIFF People Choice I’ll be more confident TLD edges Spencer out.

    Belfast may well have struggled to attain TIFF audience-award front-runner status were The Lost Daughter, The Hand of God and Parallel Mothers playing there. And if King Richard, C’mon C’mon , plus clear Sundance favourite CODA were also in the line-up – well, let’s just say Kenneth Branagh’s film is rather lucky in what it doesn’t have to face in Toronto, not to say it isn’t contending with several strong titles as it is.

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    crabbie
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    #1204451877

    Belfast may well have struggled to attain TIFF audience-award front-runner status were The Lost Daughter, The Hand of God and Parallel Mothers playing there. And if King Richard, C’mon C’mon , plus clear Sundance favourite CODA were also in the line-up – well, let’s just say Kenneth Branagh’s film is rather lucky in what it doesn’t have to face in Toronto, not to say it isn’t contending with several strong titles as it is.

    Its possible the TIFF Audience Choice award for Belfast may not be quite as valuable as Jojo Rabbit’s victory which had much more intense competition from Parasite and Marriage Story.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204451881

    Venice isn’t the end be all, but an “artsy” that appeals to the auteur sensibilities at film festivals surely should have received one award at Venice especially when that jury features two Oscar winning directors. I’m not ruling out Spencer but this could be a possible sigh of the film underperforming at nominations.

    Maybe…

    But it’s like that thing. After TPOTD, Spencer was the next film to get hit with the POLARIZING label and LETTERBOXD and then we realized that was happening to every film lol. I haven’t actually gotten the sense that it IS like that, but what I dooooo think is that it perhaps is so focused on its character study of Diana that there’s no real ensemble and the mixed reviews say it meanders. I think that may have made it STEWART’s play, but I still don’t think Spencer = Jackie! It’s gotten way too much praise from critics & audiences alike for me to dismiss it.

    TL;DR: I don’t know but in retrospect, a biopic (albeit a fable) doesn’t really sit with the other films the Venice jury chose… Happening/THOG/TPOTD/Parallel Mothers are all saying something much larger than about one person, and maybe Spencer is too, I’m just speculating.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204451885

    Its possible the TIFF Audience Choice award for Belfast may not be quite as valuable as Jojo Rabbit’s victory which had much more intense competition from Parasite and Marriage Story.

    I still think it has PLENTY of competition. Why are people counting out Dune again?

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons, Andre Holland, Troy Kotsur, Richard Jenkins, Reed Birney

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    crabbie
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    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204451893

    I still think it has PLENTY of competition. Why are people counting out Dune again?

    Something something special screenings less likely to win TIFF People Choice. I’ve given up predicting the People Choice winner—the TIFF crowd is too unpredictable.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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