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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Picture and Director

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    Matheus Vaz
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    #1204359726

    i don’t buy the last duel being an above the line contender, at all.

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    #1204359738
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    loudtoilet
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    #1204359740

    Dune got more views in its second trailer in one day than both Shang chi and Eternals did with its first trailer on day 1. You guys can predict any other reason for the movie to underperform but this is literally not it. And calling everyone an annoying stan for pointing it out is stupid

    Yep. Dune has more views than those 2 Marvel movies cause people are genuinely excited about it. These Marvel movies don’t excite even Marvel fans who only talk about Tobey and Andrew. It’s time to say it out loud. Black Widow is doing abysmally because there was never a real interest in her character. That was just a meme. They can try to excuse its terrible performance with anything but the fact remains that people don’t care and that was an odd choice for the first post-Endgame movie. As are Shang-chi, which struggles to generate any enthusiasm, and Eternals, that is more talked about on Oscar forums because of Feige’s hubris than among actual fans.

    I’d add Driver’s stans as well. Some of them can be so annoying.

    They are the Army of movie fandoms. Oh wait, some call themselves Adam driver Liberation Army!

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    fefface
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    #1204359755

    Adam driver Liberation Army

    @loudtoilet You know that these people aren’t ‘stans’ right, they’re stalkers who have threatened his family and posted his home address on Twitter.

    You have a valid point about annoying fandoms but it’s not always a laughing matter. See also the group of people who did the same thing to Benedict Cumberbatch for a long time.

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    gorman
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    #1204359763

    i don’t buy the last duel being an above the line contender, at all.

    Sort of agree. I think it’s definitely feasible it scores nods for Comer and Driver, although I think Actress may be too crowded a field and Driver’s main push will probably be Gucci for Actor. No reason Comer won’t shine through or Driver won’t get double-nommed if they’re good enough but I have them both on the bubble for now. As of now I have it getting in for, I think, Costumes and Production Design. I think Gucci will end up being a bigger player for Scott – I have that scoring around 7 nods at the minute.

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    Minuscule
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    #1204359772

    You know that these people aren’t ‘stans’ right, they’re stalkers. I see your point about annoying fandoms but it’s not always a laughing matter. See also the group of people who did the same thing to Benedict Cumberbatch for a long time.

    Agreed, these people sent death threats to his wife and child, wished that they both die in child birth and even harassed his wife at events, stole private pictures and doxxed them and showed up in person at their home.
    This creepy behavior continues to this day and Adam Driver even addressed it in an interview, so it’s no laughing matter.

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    crabbie
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    #1204359792

    I have no idea what to do with Scott’s films as of right now. I was previously predicting The Last Duel to win Best Picture but that trailer was laughingly bad and I’m getting The King vibes all over again. No matter what happens to the reception of the film though, Jodie Comer will still be nominated. I do think The Last Duel is stronger than House of Gucci only because of the Damon-Affleck-Holofcener screenplay trio as opposed to first time screenwriter at the helm of House of Gucci. Lady Gaga will be nominated for HoG regardless of what happens since AMPAS loves the prosthetic acting shtick.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    kaziz
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    #1204359811

    Dune stans are so annoying and take every suspicion of the movie flopping in the box office or not being accessible as a personal attack.

    Yeah, I don’t get it AT ALL. I don’t even get how some of you can be stans of Dune. I’M a huge stan of Dune and Villeneuve, and that trailer………looks bad! Why on earth would you want a totally accessible adaptation of a book that is SO rich? Personally Dune would do better with the Oscars if it was weirder not more accessible. Will it do well with audiences? Probably. But why don’t you want an actual GOOD adaptation lol. I want the film to be as ambiguous and thoughtful and heartbreaking about many themes simultaneously as the book series—yes, I know that sounds impossible for an adaptation which is why it feels like a death knell for Villeneuve, but I’m hoping it’s not like the trailer at the very least.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    Oleageoun
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    Feb 23rd, 2021
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    #1204359813

    There’s going to be 3-4 movies which have bigger box office than Dune in just October, No Time to Die, Hotel Transylvania 4, The Last Duel and Halloween Kills. This ain’t no LOTR people, all 3 of those movies were the biggest movies their respective years. And if LOTR got best pic only at the 3rd time, Dune got zero chance.

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    kaziz
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    #1204359821

    Yep. Dune has more views than those 2 Marvel movies cause people are genuinely excited about it. These Marvel movies don’t excite even Marvel fans who only talk about Tobey and Andrew. It’s time to say it out loud. Black Widow is doing abysmally because there was never a real interest in her character. That was just a meme. They can try to excuse its terrible performance with anything but the fact remains that people don’t care and that was an odd choice for the first post-Endgame movie. As are Shang-chi, which struggles to generate any enthusiasm, and Eternals, that is more talked about on Oscar forums because of Feige’s hubris than among actual fans.

    19k dislikes and as I suspected, the comments are filled with people with are super tentative that they might ruin the material. Hopes are high with Villeneuve, yes, but you gotta know Dune fans are RABID. If they hate it, it’ll become very known lol. There’s a lot of anticipation, yes, but it can backfire too.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kaziz
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    #1204359825

    I think both The Last Duel and House of Gucci will be bad (like almost all Ridley Scott films), but HoG will happen in some categories because it’s GAGA and its DRIVER and even AMPAS will not be able to deny the sheer populist virality of that.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    LA26
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    Apr 3rd, 2021
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    #1204359834

    <p style=”text-align: left;”>I don’t have Blonde getting in for BP and BD right now, but does anyone think screenplay can happen? I’ve read the film is weird, but I don’t think it’ll be weird on the level of Annette, so Ana de Armas might be able to score a BA nomination.</p>

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    JV
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    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1204359842

    Dune is a Warner Bros movie. It’s basically their priority.

    Warner Bros movies always get nominated.

    Period. 10 movies in a line up will trigger blockbusters.

    Warner Bros wouldn’t have put Dune in festivals and stuff if they knew it wouldn’t be accessible. Focus Features delayed The Northman because the movie wouldn’t be an Oscar thing.

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    crabbie
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    #1204359848

    On the topic of future Best Picture winners I am currently looking out for these three  films:

    1. The Power of the Dog

    2. The Tragedy of Macbeth

    3. The Last Duel

    The Power of the Dog seems to be another masterpiece like The Piano. Although I have not read the book I think its story can evoke powerful themes surrounding toxic masculinity and gender relations from what I’ve heard. The biggest hurdle of the film is Netflix I’d say.

    The Tragedy of Macbeth is one of the many countless adaptations of Macbeth but I can’t help but feel Joel Coen will make his own insightful perspective on the play that can reinforce new themes of masculinity and with Frances McDormand as Lady Macbeth I also expect quite a meaty role from her interacting with themes of womanhood and power.

    The Last Duel had a pretty bad trailer but it could just be a bad trailer and the film is fantastic. Comer seems incredibly strong for a nomination and a possible win I may add. It’s worth noting from the Best Picture contenders, the film definitely has the strongest ties to social politics from the synopsis alone.

    Admittedly, I have completely ignored other films winning Best Picture such as The French Dispatch (Underwhelming response at Cannes), Westside Story (A remake of a previous Best Picture winner winning again seems unlikely), Soggy Bottom (Inherent Vice all over again),A Hero (It’s not the Parasite of this year),and Dont Look Up (A comedic satire will be divisive no matter what).

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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